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Messages - Montague

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721
Life Advice / Re: Money => more Money... But how?
« on: October 06, 2011, 03:58:28 am »
I'm trying to figure out what to do with my money as well.

My opinion, stay away from gold in any shape or form or any mutual fund, stock or investment . It is in a absurd artificial speculative bubble that due to burst any day now, its too late to make any money off that.

Real estate market is still imploded, being a landlord sucks anyways. If you must invest in real estate, go for the run-down inner-city properties, avoid suburbs and rural properties like the plague. Gentrification is a increasing trend that isn't showing any sign of slowing down.

I'd avoid most mutual funds/ money markets/ hi-low caps, because you don't know what sort of toxic crap their value is attached to

If you like shiny things or speculating on commodities, buy up copper, petroleum and rare earth elements. These things have real intrinsic value and are becoming more and more scarce. Copper prices in particular took a price drop which could mean its a good time to buy copper as its sure to go back up in the future.

Petroleum will go right back up in price once the economy picks back up, Exxon-Mobile stock is the single top performer right now and there isn't any reason why it won't pick up even more in the future when fuel prices inevitably returns to its previous levels. Big evil corporations are usually safe bets anyways.

Short-term, 5-10 year high interest CD accounts are easy enough if you don't want risk and just want your money to do something slightly more productive then gradually lose value against inflation.

Anyways, that all is my outlook on it and its how I'm going to invest my money.

Another thing, one thing I've noticed in terms of a business type investment is simply buying used cars off private owners for cheap, and selling the things off at auctions, or list them at higher prices then what you paid for them somewhere else. This is the basic business model of any used car dealership that does trade-ins. If you advertise that you'll pay slighter more then Car Max, you'll collect a lot of business from people trying to sell their cars quickly. Being a useless middle-man is the easiest and safest type of business model and used cars car market is booming because people can't afford anything better and others are selling cars at desperate prices for survival money.

Just an idea, like any business it will consume time and effort and might not pay off.

722
General Discussion / Re: Energy futures
« on: October 06, 2011, 02:45:09 am »
Okay, first of all...

Second of all...

Thirdly and most importantly...

Huh. I was mostly half-joking there, but those are good explanations of why there are no solar-panel-powered-solar-panel-factories. Some of what you pointed out actually never occurred to me before, though it seems like obviously common sense stuff now that I think back on it, so thanks for breaking it down Barney-style for me. The main point I was going for is the disparity between the output, cost efficiency and viability of solar compared to conventional power, though looking at some of the new parabolic through plants built and planned lately, solar power definitely seems to be getting closer to closing the gap.

*snip*

That's a pretty good case for wind power as well. Seems like a lot of the problems with renewable energy has just been an issue of economies of scale, while wind power doesn't work everywhere, it seems to be competitive where it does work.


Controlled fusion power, though, has always been that technology that will be viable "20 years from now" ever since the 1970's. The best they ever seem to accomplish, no matter the scale or technique used, is a net gain of zero output for a few minutes, so it makes me wonder if there isn't some limit of physics making it impossible to net anything from these types of controlled-fusion reactors.

The fuel-pellet idea is new to be, I always wondered if they couldn't find a way to use the physics mechanism used to make nuclear weapons work into generating power. I'm guessing the lasers somehow circumvent the mass required for fusion chain reaction?


723
General Discussion / Re: Steve Jobs, Still Alive!
« on: October 06, 2011, 02:14:55 am »
Sounds like an idea conspiracy theorist types will probably assert. Kinda like Elvis and Walt Disney, some people just can't seem to die.

Ah well, guess we'll find out for sure if and when an immortal titanium-alloy Robo Steve Jobs 2.0 emerges from his hidden laboratory bunker and submits an application for his old job.

724
General Discussion / Re: Energy futures
« on: October 05, 2011, 05:54:01 am »
Pretty valid points here. I'm really pretty skeptical of the practicality of most alternative energy. Solar power in particular sucks. The fact that there isn't even a solar-power powered solar power panel factory sorta points out how it isn't economical. Doesn't mean they don't have uses on the small-scale, though.

Also, nuclear power sucks in the long run as well, the supply of uranium used for fuel rods at current use will be practically exhausted in 42 years and production will peak in 20. If they could come up with a safe thorium or breeder reactor then this might be viable if they could ever overcome the political and regulatory obstacles.

Not sure about wind power, but they can never seem to produce or install enough of them anywhere to make a damn bit of difference in the energy supply as a whole.

725
General Discussion / Re: 'Social' Technology and social standing
« on: October 05, 2011, 05:33:50 am »
I own a cell phone because its a necessity, I've got to have a phone number I can be reached at.

I don't send texts unless I need to relay something complicated like an address or stock number that somebody would need to write down. Mostly I don't text because I suck at typing with the tiny cellphone buttons and also because its just easier and quicker to just call the other person. I always figured texts were good for people that can't talk over the phone because they are in a meeting or class or whatever.


726
General Discussion / Re: Occupying Wallstreet
« on: October 05, 2011, 05:25:59 am »
I'm guessing this Wall Street occupation thing might turn into a sort of anti-tea-party movement? We had them protesting everywhere and now we have left-wingers complaining about the same basic problems, only with not as coherent of a political message. "Rich people suck" is about as close to a universal sentiment such as I've gathered, anyways.

What do you suppose they hope to accomplish with this Wall Street protest?

727
General Discussion / Re: Occupying Wallstreet
« on: October 04, 2011, 03:10:17 am »
Yeah, I'll agree with most here that resource scarcity probably won't be the end of civilization, per se, technology is always adapting and technologies can't be uninvented. I do think standards of living in the western world will probably decline, or at least the incredible levels of consumption and economic activity will slow down on their own. I have a feeling the current world economic slump is really just the start of things to come, for a long while, but It'll sort itself out at some point.

The times they are a changing, and that's basically the underlying reason behind these protests. People brought up and raised thinking they'll have it at least as good as their parents are pissed by the realization that they will be the first generation to have it worse then the generation before it.


728
General Discussion / Re: Premarital sex talk :O
« on: October 01, 2011, 06:11:55 am »
Yeah, I also don't believe the state should have anything to do with marriages, as a set package of legal bindings and legal statuses. People should decide what sort of legal entanglements and contracts they want to create between each other completely free from any traditional requirements like husband/ wife. People should just have to file their taxes individually. Marriages should not need to be legally recognized by the law.

Churches don't need to attach their religious requirements for morally-acceptable sex to government policy either. Let Catholic marriages and divorces be handled by a pastor or something and leave the state out of it.

729
General Discussion / Re: Occupying Wallstreet
« on: October 01, 2011, 03:51:53 am »

Right.

When you think about it, most employment everywhere is makework already. The primary and secondary sectors need less and less people to produce more and more and this labor surplus led to the creation of the modern teiriary sector. Crap like call-centers,fast food, wal-mart greeters is basically pointless makework that is a symptom of having lots of extra people and very little for them to do. In less developed nations without much of a service sector, you have extended families where only a handful of members work to provide for a family that does nothing but domestic chores or tending to goats and similar make-work and this is perfectly normal and acceptible there.

The problem with right-wing thinking is they believe a massively growing world economy can provide meaningful work to anybody who wants it and effectively end poverty, but the problem is that such an economy would implode when resources become sufficiently scarce. Really, any and all models of modern economies run into the problem of resource scarcity, down the timeline eventiually.

So, really, industrialized society has this problem with having an excess of people, a shortage of work and a finite amount of energy and resources to sustain it. It seems doomed to collapse unless science figures out said infinite-energy-machine so industries have so much cheap energy available they can turn red sand into white sand, to extract every stray iron atoms out of it to meet ever-increasing demand for steel for an industrialized economy.

The world population along with the economy of resource consumption will just have to shrink dramatically and there is a real lack of moral, political or philosophical willpower to allow/make that to happen, or industrialized society as we know it will simply be impossible to continue.

730
General Discussion / Re: Occupying Wallstreet
« on: October 01, 2011, 01:27:18 am »
I think we can probably rule out a labor-free robot economy, unless somebody designs a infinite-cheap-energy-machine to replace all this oil and coal society uses for energy. Otherwise it'll be economically infeasible to obtain any more natural resources from the planet to make crap for people to use, metals and plastics and things.

Really, material scarcity is the main obstacle to endless growth and progress, labor is almost irrelevant, after all, people are a renewable resource. On a long enough time line, there is practically an infinite amount of labor available to process natural resources. So its not really a shortage of labor preventing endless economic growth so much as its a shortage of natural resources to exploit.

Also, I suppose there is the argument that not everyone in society needs to work, there is automation and things can be created in such abundance that it doesn't require everyone to participate in the economy. It boils down to a philosophical idea that people shouldn't just exist as parasites to productive people, draining resources while contributing nothing.

Anyways, I'm not even sure what these Wallstreet occupiers are really protesting about... "Anti-greed" is pretty vague.



731
DF Dwarf Mode Discussion / Re: Marksdwarven armor
« on: September 26, 2011, 04:09:54 am »
Everybody is basically correct.

Iron/steel armor can weigh a lot and slow down marksdwarves with poor strength or armor skill. Their volume of fire will slow, which is really more important then their defense, fighting from a distance and all.

That said, marksdwarves trained in danger rooms don't have any problem with wearing heavy metal armor.

Also, the best defense is a shield and since materials don't effect how well a shield blocks, a lightweight wooden shield is all a marksdwarf really needs.


732
Life Advice / Re: How to get motivated
« on: September 26, 2011, 12:48:40 am »
Getting rid of distractions (namely, the internet, video games) or anything else you tend to do to pass time is the best way to stay committed to goals that require a bit of effort to get started on and see through to the end.

Pretty much because you'll be bored enough to actually want to go for a run, study or work on a long project. You'll just feel like you have nothing better to do at the time.

It's how I went through college, I did all my homework and assignments at the college library computers because if I planned to work on it at home, I'd always end up on the internet or doing some other more entertaining/ unproductive thing instead. I'm always more productive when I don't have any other more interesting options then to work.

733
General Discussion / Re: CERN has accidentally the everything.
« on: September 26, 2011, 12:16:18 am »
Didn't they theorize neutrinos went FTL a long time ago? I know there are particle interactions that exceed the speed of light, anyways.

Neutrinos have always been weird particles anyways, they have virtually zero mass and they zip through Earth like it's not even there. About 65 billion solar neutrinos per second pass through every square centimeter perpendicular to the direction of the Sun in the region of the Earth.

With M-theory and all that, it's probably something that exists primarily in another dimension, like gravity. That or the people studying them are not reading their instrumentation correctly, or their instrumentation isn't working as intended.

734
General Discussion / Re: Digging in real life
« on: September 25, 2011, 11:30:22 pm »
Underground structures are strictly regulated by laws and ordinances. I'd look into your local laws to see what asinine requirements they might want, or you could just end up digging a condemned tunnel and paying fines.

Another note is that most underground construction is basically digging a big hole with an excavator, building/placing a structure in the hole and burying back up. The best way to keep a tunnel from collapsing is to lay down pre-fabricated structures designed for it, like concrete storm pipe sections or those modular bomb-shelter kits. Digging a tunnel into rock or using masonry/ wood supports in a soil tunnel is probably a really bad idea. Digging underground with a pick or shovel is also absurdly hard labor.

735
General Discussion / Re: Occupying Wallstreet
« on: September 24, 2011, 04:18:59 am »
If they wanted to create jobs, the gov't would just print more money. Inflation would make American products and services competitive in other countries (as well as making foreign imports less competitive against domestic goods) it would also reduce the debt burden of the government and people without much liquid capital. It would also cause wealthy people to invest their money, rather then sit it in a bank to try to maintain their wealth against devaluation. Reasons why the Chinese intentionally devalue their currency.

Of course, inflation is bad for debtors and banks, so has thus convinced a majority that inflation is the worse of evils.

People should probably be protesting the central banks if they wanted policies that created demand for labor.


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