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Messages - Reelya

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17191
General Discussion / Re: Someone please explain this Iran thing to me
« on: March 07, 2012, 02:10:59 am »
Then there was another screw up having to do with illegal arms sales in Iran by the U.S. government known as Iran-Contra.  The main issue here was with President Regan illegally, depending on who you ask, selling weapons to revolutionaries opposed to the Islamic government.

Woah woah woah NOT to rebels, which meant USA was selling arms to BOTH sides of the Iran/Iraq war. Basically turned into arms for the hostages. "rebels against khomeini" seems to have been a loose cover-story to keep the US agents from spilling the beans.

And it was definitely illegal since there was an international arms embargo.

That the arms were not going to revolutionaries should be clear from what was sold :

Quote
According to The New York Times, the United States supplied the following arms to Iran:[30]
August 20, 1985. 96 TOW anti-tank missiles
September 14, 1985. 408 more TOWs
November 24, 1985. 18 Hawk anti-aircraft missiles
February 17, 1986. 500 TOWs
February 27, 1986. 500 TOWs
May 24, 1986. 508 TOWs, 240 Hawk spare parts
August 4, 1986. More Hawk spares
October 28, 1986. 500 TOWs

That's 2000+ anti-tank missiles and parts for anti-air missiles. Clearly these were to blow up Saddam's tanks and planes in the war.

17192
General Discussion / Re: Someone please explain this Iran thing to me
« on: March 07, 2012, 02:02:16 am »
Chomsky can say it better than i ever could

http://www.chomsky.info/articles/20100702.htm


He cites this D.O.D report on the actual threat :-

 http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=58833

Quote
“With sufficient foreign assistance,” the report states, “Iran could probably develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States by 2015.”

Tautlogy, Iran can't make ICBMs but if every ICBM owning country got together and helped them they totally could be nuking us tomorrow. That's like asking other nations to fund Iran 10's of billions of dollars for no benefit other than screwing America. Not going to happen. And, only the 5 permanent members of the UN security council have these ICBMS right now, 5 countries in total. They're not about to share their monopoly with random dudes.

Quote
"The report states that central to Iran’s “deterrent strategy” is its pursuit of a nuclear program that could potentially move it closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Iran contends that its nuclear ambitions are for peaceful purposes."

Ok note key words - deterrent, pursuit, program, potentially, closer, developing. Which means to say there's no evidence they're anywhere near making nukes so it's complete conjecture. And if they actually had a nuke, they want it for a "deterrent" not to fire it, it is not longer a deterrent if you fire the nuke or give it to terrorists. Don't take my word for it, this is from the US Army's intelligence report.

Following on :-

Quote
“Iran’s nuclear program and its willingness to keep open the possibility of developing nuclear weapons is a central part of its deterrent strategy,” the report says.

So the very possibility of them making a nuke in future is kept alive so that they can bluff USA in negotiating. That's the key to Iran's strategy. note that there's no talk of bombing North Korea alone out of all the "axis of evil", mainly due to their "we'll blow your heads off" rhetoric. So having nukes is an excellent deterrent.

Quote
The department’s release of the analysis comes on the heels of the Nuclear Security Summit and testimony by the Pentagon’s top policy chief, who last week said the U.S. approach to Iran remains centered on preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons and on countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East.

Here's the crux of the matter. And refer back to the chomsky article, they're more upset about Iran gaining influence through diplomacy than the threats to their own people or neighbors. THATS the true "threat" from Iran, that they diplomatically succeed. Iran doesn't have strike forces capable of invading other nations.

17193
Well government often acts as an arbiter in disputes, so they'd be saying there would never be an interpersonal dispute without government?

Also, contracts only exist within an enforcement framework, without which everything needs to be taken on faith. e.g. property ownership, totally based on having a government to arbitrate.

If they tell you business' will honor their contracts even without a government enforcing the rules, tell them they're even more utopian than the liberals.

And give them the example of drug gangs for total unregulated capitalism. If they counter that those are criminals, not businessmen, return fire with the argument that if we don't have a government to suppress the criminals then the line between crime and business will blur, and who will compete against guys who shoot their competition?

17194
Forum Games and Roleplaying / Re: Word association game
« on: March 07, 2012, 01:12:47 am »
Pony

17195
Sadly, this game will start at 2am for me and end about ~7am D: damn time-zones.

17196
Yes... within not five minutes I see a message saying something like "Welcome to wikipedia! We have changed the edits you made to this article because we feel yours were not constructive." They review edits fast. It still works for the Xefer now though, so it's good enough for me.
Lol, i went back and fixed it again in a way unlikely to be reversed.

17197
Yes, but by going for a known target each time, the philosophy article, you can store heuristics on each URL reference (you've already needed to create a graph of the URLS links) which says the number of steps to philosophy. You can also look for "trunk" articles and avoid "leaves' in the graph.

That only needs to be done once, and all future searches could just follow the "path of least resistance" (just pick the link with lowest steps number) as in A* search.

With a "moving target" you'd need to work out a new set of heuristics for every search.

17198
General Discussion / Re: American Election Megathread
« on: March 05, 2012, 08:53:45 pm »
Fwa..wha??? Link, por favor? That would be HUGE (see previous ramblings about delegate numbers and Virginia).

Yeah, that was some definitely off-base hyperbole.  Damn television.  Romney's definitely walking away with Virginia.

Other interesting NBC/WSJ polls, asking people which party they feel does a better job of reaching out to non-base people.  Nationally, 55% Democrats vs. 26% Republicans.  In the category itself, 35% of self-identified Republicans said the Democratic party is better at attracting the non-hardcore to vote for them.  Along with a "what word comes to mind" question coming back like 80% negative for the Republican primary process, among Republican voters even, that is going to be some very concerning news.

I'm not too surprised, as if you look at Gallup polls, republicans are far closer to being a monoculture (73% conservative) whereas only 38% of Democrats self-identify as liberals. So Republicans have more tendency to pander to their base supporters / live in an echo chamber than democrats do.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/conservatives-single-largest-ideological-group.aspx

17199
I agree on per-capita, but that's never been the source of power. Total economic capacity is power, not per capita wealth.

In fact, i'd make the argument that western wealth (or concentration thereof) is built on out-sourcing low-paying jobs to poor countries. Those become a de facto part of your economy, so the higher per-capita wealth of the west is partially illusionary since those economic structures couldn't exist without those sweatshops in third world partner countries.

17200
Yes but that's likely to be minimum of 5 links, hence the 100 million routes i talked about. And '40' is just a guesstimate. Many pages will have more than 40 links.

Plus the memory needed to keep track of all the URLs for the various links and searching the database constantly to check that each new URL isn't on another page's path already, all for some lame web joke game.

17201
Yes, but we're talking about search ALL links off each page, before deciding which route to take. How can you "find" the route when you're searching all the links in parallel?

This is the domain of search algorithms as seen in chess etc. Have you looked at how quickly modern supercomputers CPU and RAM gets swamped by even relatively simple games?

You can do depth-first or breadth-first search. My comment was in response to someone wishing that the program found shorter routes. i.e testing ALL routes even after one existing one is found (assuming you're using depth-first search). But with "depth first" you need to explore an unknown number of bad routes before finding the good route. And with breadth-first you search all links off each possible route in parallel until one of the routes is a winner. Both have pro's and con's.

If you want the "shortest route" as the person wishing for the Xefer algorithm to be improved did, then you have to keep searching even after a single route is found.

17202
We do that for jury duty, and the Athenians also used that (one month on the senate for all randomly selected citizens i think).

If you assign most people to committees etc rather than individual responsibility then you also mitigate the damage a single poor choice makes.

17203
It looks like the engine could use some refining.  Some pages that should almost certainly be close to philosophy get skipped over in favor of heading to mathematics and philosophy of mathematics.

For example, Jango Fett is extremely long despite passing through literature and art very early on.

It always takes the first hyperlinked article in the body of the text. Doing a full-tree search might sound all cool and stuff, but would be way way slower and cause all sorts of congestion (one search might even impact other users ability to access wikipedia servers).

If the average article links 40 other things, then searching 5 deep would mean checking 100 million pages.

17204
Forum Games and Roleplaying / Re: Word association game
« on: March 05, 2012, 05:31:54 pm »
Carpenter

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

17205
Yep, China may be half the current U.S. GDP but they doubled that in only 5 years. So looks likely that China's GDP will surpass USA very soon.

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