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Messages - Reelya

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256
I think that's correct. While IQ test have some general usefulness, the history of concept of 'g' itself is based on a blank slate model where how much 'g' you have indicates how good you are a 'general intelligence' tasks. The assumption here is that the brain is like a car and g is horsepower, and the more 'g' you have the better you do at all 'general' tasks.

Except the evidence points more to the idea that the brain isn't like a general-purpose computer where G = GHz or an engine when G = Horsepower, but it's more a series of specialized units that do very specific tasks. This bit was a very contentious point for many years, between those who believe the brain is like a blank slate that has pure generalized learning ability (g) vs those who believed the brain consists of a large number of specialized units that have evolved to handle common problems.

So IQ / 'g' is a very crude measure. It's like trying to say how big your house is by measuring its height. It'll be accurate to some degree since height of the house is correlated to size, but it's going to be a poor measure overall.

Back in the heyday every workplace used IQ tests based on the promise that it would find the best people for their jobs. Almost nobody does that now. That tells you how useful IQ testing is in real-world scenarios. The main uses for IQ tests now is that you win if you fail the test tif you're a death row inmate; so exploiting a loophole in the law that says you can't execute people with low IQ (i.e. it's in there for arbitrary reasons), or if you want to join Mensa, the club for people who score highly on IQ tests. Neither of these uses actually requires IQ tests to have any sort of validity outside the test itself.

257
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: November 10, 2020, 03:09:05 am »
Sorry I must have been very tired when I wrote that, I meant Karen. Long day at work after getting almost no sleep last night.

Amateur data forensics, basically, yeah? Comes up where I'm working occasionally (have fun finding a book in a library when all you have is the barcode and relative location information :P), and it's indeed lowkey interesting (when it isn't wildly time consuming and frustrating, anyway, ha). Can't imagine having someone hollering at you during the process helps any, though.

Well the main job is about something else (making sure people with medical needs such as ventilators are identified in case of power outtages), but sometimes someone just mumble their details into the phone and you got half a name and know they live at 39 <unitelligible> drive in <mumblesville>, so that bit requires a bit of lateral thinking and guesswork. A bit like a cryptic puzzle sometimes.

258
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: November 09, 2020, 11:47:06 pm »
Jeez, #NotAlwaysRight

Working on a case where an agent of a large national company just got called by some woman, "put me through to Bob, he's handling my case" (real name changed, still the actual name is a very common first name). The girl then tries to ask her some questions to work out who she is, and who / which department she's after, i.e. who the hell Bob is (literally there are two possible countries he could be in). The caller then goes super-Helen and starts complaining "Why should I give you my information, Bob's handling my case, he knows who I am! Put me through to Bob!"

Now, part of my job is to take this bit of random call and try and work out who's calling and connect some dots related to the accounts we have. It's kind of fun sometimes, need to take bits of information and do a bit of sleuthing to try and narrow it down.

259
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 02:15:50 am »
We want to go slow on the gene editing in real humans. For example, if we're talking embryos, we can just screen for the bad genes and do IVF for the embryos that don't have that gene, no need to edit the embryos in the first place. So that leaves the main use as being for gene therapy for already living humans, and since screening can be rolled out much cheaper and less dangerously than trying to hack the genome of already living people, there will be an ever-decreasing window of usefulness for gene therapies. We should still look into it, but providing mass screening would be far more efficient and less controversial than trying to edit babies*. Also, all that effort would basically be invested in making something we can already make for free: babies that don't have that genetic disease.

EDIT: *here's the main gist. Think about how many incidents of a specific genetic disease are prevented per screening vs per gene editing an embryo, vs gene therapies on an already-alive person. Then consider how much money each one costs to enact, and whether or not we have enough money to 100% roll out the solution. The basic screening technology would work out as the least-expensive option per number of cases prevented, so it's the long term best option to deal with the problem. Only once you have 100% screening, only then would it be worth investing any remaining money in the gene therapies, in terms of saving the most people.

260
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 01:08:14 am »
Social Darwinism then: let poverty and misery spread unchecked because it'll weed out the gene pool.

The problem here is that this approach doesn't turn you into a superman state, it turns you into India. People under those sorts of pressures have more kids because the kids become sources of income / labor and they become the support network in your old age since you of course also got rid of old age pensions as part of this weeding out the weak plan, and you need to plan for a lot of kids because of the inevitably high child mortality rates such a plan would create.

Basically, this "let the weak fend for themselves" plan isn't some new and radical proposal, it's how the Third World operates, and we've seen the consequences. It's what caused the steady trickle of those uneducated immigrants and refugees in the first place. So yeah, you didn't really create some radical new proposal that's going to toughen up and improve the racial stock, you're basically proposing creating the slums of Calcutta, but in the USA so it's white people in the gutter having 15 kids, which I guess is an improvement in some ways, since you won't need to import so many sub minimum wage people anymore since the local pool of that will blow out, big time.

As evidence, note that the places in the USA with the high rates of childbirth aren't the Democrat controlled areas, they're consistently places where the Republicans have been in charge for a long time. See this list of US states by fertility rate and cross reference by the 2020 election map, the top 13 states by fertility rates all voted Trump, so they're hardcore Republican areas.

Cutting social services in fact directly causes the blow out in family sizes especially among the poor, it doesn't weed out the weak.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
Also see list of US states by infant mortality rate, also lead by red states. So i guess they're taking your proposal to heart. It isn't working however.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_infant_mortality_rates

261
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 12:36:13 am »
Although every single line of evidence available to us in the real world shows that as people's standards of living rise, they have less kids, blowing a hole in the entire theory. And they simultaneously promote the theory that Democrats are killing off black people via abortions with the idea that Democrats are trying to out-breed white people through overpopulating non-white people. Such is the logic of people who have injected the koolaid directly into their brainstem.

EDIT: note a more reasonable interpretation is that Democrats are interested in improving the quality of life of all people who are actually alive, and are agnostic on how that affects the proportion of different races. So they'll support things that both increase the number of black people (better medicine access, childcare etc) and decreases the number of black people (access to abortions) based on the principle that both things promote quality of life.

The race mix doesn't even factor into Democratic thinking, that's a Republican obsession, but they project race as a motive onto Democratic decisions.

262
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 12:28:38 am »
I think the bare sliver of hope Trump represents is what draws them in. One prominent QAnon motto is "trust the plan". To combat that, you can't just say the plan is bullshit and there's no actual plan, you need a more compelling plan. Like, if there was constructive stuff to do, those people wouldn't be sitting at computers seething at the system, they'd be doing stuff. You gotta make it look foolish by offering a viable alternative. (for example, Australia, minimum wage is $20 an hour. After saving money on a minimum wage job for just a couple of years here you could actually afford to buy a decent sized house out in the country, if not in Melbourne or Sydney. The social contract therefore isn't quite as broken here: not being able to afford a big house right in the city is really a first world problem).

A big part of it is the social contract. Do the right thing, work hard, and you'll be prosperous. Promising to bring the coal jobs back is about promising to bring back the social contract around that. The whole learn to code thing for coal miners was very tone deaf.

263
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 12:23:39 am »
Incels should just hook up with femcels.

femcels have the option of just rebranding as the much more palatable radfems, so i don't think there are that many of them.

Maybe they're women with no date who are too toxic for the radfems however so they're slumming it on incel boards, I guess. (or a more likely analysis is that radfems are dime a dozen so they wouldn't stand out then, so they made femcel instead. It's a much smaller pond, so standing out as a prominent femcel would be as easy way to get online recognition).

264
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 08, 2020, 08:52:34 pm »
Quote
I know many out there will quickly retort "If someone decides to become a fascist because someone said something mean to them, then they were probably a fascist piece of shit all along and we don't want them!"  But this is absurdly reductionist, and would be comical in how dishonest or stupid it is, if it didn't threaten to doom us all.  Tell someone they're a piece of shit who needs to go stand in the corner with the other pieces of shit enough, and eventually you'll generate a person who sympathizes and bands together with the other pieces of shit, no matter how virtuous they may have once been.  Do this to everyone who ever produces a whiff of bad smell, and you're going to make a real problem for yourself.

This is why the ostracism of anyone, for example, remotely incel-like actually feeds the incel community rather than weakening it.

https://www.verywellfamily.com/do-girls-and-boys-bully-differently-460494

Quote
Most female bullies do not act alone. Instead, they tend to have accomplices or followers who support their behavior. Additionally, girls will rally around the primary bully in order to gain more social standing in the group. They will give in to peer pressure and bullying even when they know it’s wrong.

Apparently, a common thread in incel related stories is that the guy was bullied by girls in their teen years, and given what the literature says on the patterns of female bullying vs male bullying, the stories I've seen match the academic literature pretty well. I'm guessing a lot of them have bullying related PTSD, but because of circumstance (gender of the bullies) it's entangled with gender issues. And girls bullying guys isn't something we as a society have a narrative for, so we can't process this information.

Society is still very much in the traditional masculinity mindset and guys who don't fit with that get shoehorned to fit the expectations. This still even permeates many feminist's thinking. So any guy expressing any negative emotions about women is clearly just a 'woman hater' and can't possibly have valid experiences from their life that make them feel like that, or so we say to ourselves. Because, a man being a victim doesn't fit either the traditionalist nor the feminist mindset. So these guys can't openly express their experiences in most mainstream, feminist, liberal or traditional conservative spheres, since all of those groups would consider them as just losers. So they end up on toxic forums where they're easily red pilled by the other broken people on those forums, who misdirect their trauma into anger against a bunch of shit that's nothing to do with it. Girls have always been bullies, that's nothing new and nothing to do with feminism, it's just that in traditional masculinity we don't acknowledge men who have been victimized by women, and mainstream society is still working on trad. masculinity as the working hypothesis so we have no way to process or acknowledge these experiences, and until we have that, 'incels' will be forced into a corner to chat amongst themselves.

So I kind of get the impression that a fair chunk of the online incels are autism-spectrum guys with poor social skills who have experiences of being bullied during their teen years by girls. It would be interesting to take a poll of them to see how many went to co-ed schools vs how many went to all-boy schools, and I'll bet that most of them went to co-ed schools (*Note here, i mean that guys who went to all-boy schools end up with a different bag of stuff wrong with them). This is why I don't use the incel thing as an insult, I think many of them have some form of psych issues as well as the bullying trauma history.

265
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 08, 2020, 06:53:08 pm »
@McTraveller: the desire for a "return to normal" is nice and all, but it will do nothing but ensure a second trump cones along. Probably a smarter one, too. The grievances that elected him (and they were not all racially motivated, though many of them were)

Well historically speaking, the racial thing is a scapegoat for the underlying grievances. The 'average' German in the 1930s probably wasn't largely motivated by anti-Jewish sentiment as the underlying reason they were pissed off, it was the collapse of the economy post 1929, and the Nazis, who were the full on anti-semitic people then capitalized by directing that anger at a scapegoat. Similarly the rank and file Nazis probably couldn't really give a shit about Jews or otherwise. They were in it for the power and/or freedom to commit violence. For example, if the death camps had non-Jews mixed in there by accident, do you think any of the killers would give a shit. They couldn't really care any less. They only wanted to kill a bunch of people, regardless of who they were killing. Anti-human at the heart of it, and any specific traits of the people they were killing were only window dressing which made it ok. Run out of Jews, gays, communists etc and they'd probably round up the dirty stamp collectors or train spotters and kill those people too. If such a thing goes on long enough, the bar is constantly lowered on who you're killing / arresting, see Stalin's Russia for examples of that.

Similarly, Trump capitalizes on rust belt loss of jobs by directing that anger at Chinese and hispanics (your job went overseas or someone from overseas is coming to take your job), and capitalizes on urban decay and infrastructure under-investment by directing anger at black people / hispanics (fears of social instability and neighborhoods being encroached by crime). The people losing their jobs aren't motivated by a deep seated hatred of Chinese people: in neutral circumstances they wouldn't have any opinion on them one way or another.

I think it would be similar with black people too, plenty of southern racist types seem ok with specific black people they meet, the 'ok' ones, but they will still speak out against the 'group' as a whole but they do so in broad terms linking them to, and blaming them for, negative societal issues and trends. Correct me if I'm totally off base, but relatively few will ever say they don't like black people just because they're black, but rather they link them to real social issues (poverty, homelessness, crime, drugs, collapse of families etc) which are perfectly reasonable to be concerned about, it's just not reasonable to make it a race issue, and that's where the political right come in and exploit these underlying fears of social instability by directing those fears at recognizable targets.

Also, by making those issues a thing that's about black people you no longer have to think about them as much, since they by definition are happening to someone else. So it's no longer the point that family structures are broadly collapsing and divorce rates are skyrocketing, that's the fault of the Democrats and their inner city policies related to black people.

I'll add onto what Max said here, Marx's Historical Materialism is a whole different kettle of fish to the idea of bolting-together a "communist society". Historical Materialism is about how productive forces in a society lead to technological changes and how those changes inevitably change the economic status quo, leading to a paradigm shift*. It takes the emphasis away from specific choices and focuses on systemic trends. e.g. capitalism was the inevitable outcome of the industrial revolution, basically because it outcompetes rival systems. The point here is that systems which outcompete other systems inevitably rise to be the dominant system. Nietzsche makes similar points. Leninist style communist states attempt to control the whole milieu, so they don't allow the competitive forces that Marx was talking about to even take place. A centralized state which tries to aggressively hold back the competitive elements of production is not much different to a theocratic state which tries to hold back the flood of new ideas and science, and both end up having elements in common.

* the paradigm shift in Marx's communism is actually the point at which the process of automation makes labor itself obsolete (“labor has become not only a means of life but life’s prime want.”. Consider this as the idea that work itself is moving up Maslow's heirarchy of needs over time; so communism is the point at which you don't need to work for basic needs at all, but you work to have something to do). And he argues that at this point the existing capitalism mechanisms for distributing goods will no longer make any sense: since the economic forces shape the society, it's when there's a paradigm shift in the economic forces that a new system can arise, and not before that. So any state which centralizes the concept of labor as the organizing principle isn't in fact "communism" under Marx's definition. In fact such labor-states actually fight against the very advancements that would lead to the communist state as envisioned by Marx, since you get vested interests to keep the centrality of labor in the economy, i.e. forced job placements and economic disincentives to further automate since you have to employ those people anyway.

266
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: November 08, 2020, 02:11:16 pm »
Not all of them have the smaller nub, and note that the credit card to unlock doors trope is pretty old. At some point, that nub was added to prevent that very problem with the basic design. I'm looking at my bedroom door right now, and it's an older house and the credit card trick would totally work in this door.

267
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: November 08, 2020, 10:48:51 am »
I am not sure why there would be a lock that can be forced open with a credit card. The way any door lock I saw works, it is a ~5mm thick steel plate that slides into a slot in the door frame.

Those locks do exist, they're ones with a triangular bolt (cylindrical but with a cut out making a triangular silouhette), and it's only lightly springed so you can push something up the inside and push the bolt in. Usually, you only see those on interior doors, but if they were on an exterior door it would likely be the back door into a kitchen or something.

This sort of one:



Notice how the bolt isn't straight, but there's a curve. The inner side of the bolt is flush with the door, so you pull the card up and at an angle and you can push the bolt in that way. These things make sense for example for a bathroom door, however if they've been used on an exterior door someone did something very wrong.

268
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: November 08, 2020, 10:27:18 am »
Before we miss this one. Trump's team booked a press conference (for Guiliani) at a Four Seasons. Except, they seem to somehow failed to book the hotel, and rented a store called Four Seasons Total Landscaping, which is a small shop in between a sex store and a mortuary. They then *actually* held the press conference in the parking lot out back.

As is the Trump way, never admit you made a mistake even when you got no pants on.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/us-election-trump-laywer-rudy-giulianis-four-seasons-total-landscaping-press-conference-mistake-goes-viral/news-story/0adff3225ed3ae9e8478874565749f85

269
I like how someone tried to justify the Hitler quotes as being relevant to the slides.

Which totally misses the point of why this is a problem. There are a million relevant quotes that could be found, but whoever put this together seemed to be of the mindset that you first bring up your big book of Hitler quotations, find one that vaguely fits the slide, then if that fails you begrudgingly go on Goodreads and find quotes by someone else  that might be relevant.

I'm pretty sure I could come up with all Darth Vader and the Emperor quotes that would fit the slides, too.

Or, we can entertain an alternate interpretation where the guy exhaustively crawled quotations sites, before begrudgingly going "well, I guess Adolf Hitler nailed the Ethics topic on the head again, I'll use his quote".

270
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: November 08, 2020, 10:01:33 am »
I doubt that China specifically has the most brazen thieves such that they'd invest in higher quality locks.

I'll put a theory out that it's because China is the center of manufacturing for that sort of thing, so it's down to economies of scale, and getting good locks is just cost effective there, whereas in other countries you have the shitty shit they sell as export quality. China makes cheap plastic stuff so they can corner the market in that stuff overseas, that doesn't actually imply that everything Chinese people use themselves is shitty cheap plastic versions.

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