Bay 12 Games Forum

Indeed.  Plus, I could really use the practice with the basics of statistics, and I'm not exactly contributing much to the battle right now. ^_^ OK, I figured out where I went wrong.

1. Hit first shot: 72%
2. Avoid counterblow: 24% + (76%*48%) + (76%*52% * 73%) = 89.3%
3. Hit second shot: 72%

Chance of knocking-out Arvis: 46.3%.  Chance of getting knocked-out by Arvis: 10.7%.  Risky...putting Edwin's life on the flip of a coin would have been safer, but we'll see how it works next turn. 

Scratch everything I just said. I need to read your post better.

EDIT: Okay, I see the difference. You're forgetting one of Derick's Personal Skills that I factored in. One that increases his STR by 2 when within 3 spaces of an ally.

Quote from: CrimsonEon on September 02, 2013, 11:53:14 am

Derick can Double Arvis for (assuming within 3 spaces of allied unit)
-17 DAM@95%Hit(Iron Sword)
-19 DAM@85%Hit(Shamsir)
-21 DAM@80%Hit(Killing Edge)
(Luck prevailing, Derick could kill him alone)

Ah, whoops.  I always forget those; that puts him barely over the margin when using the Killing Edge.  Let's see now, including Cancel and Riven's Charisma (+10 HIT/EVA)...

1. Hit first shot: 72%
2. Avoid counterblow: 24% + (76%*48%) = 60.5%
3. Hit second shot: 72%

31.3% shot at hitting both on the money.  39.5% shot at getting shot.  It's a little better. 

Quote from: Zako on September 02, 2013, 06:52:56 pm

I just don't feel that lucky today so I'm going to have to say no, but if you guys think that it really is best to go through with trying to kill him, then I'll let you give it a shot.

Okay, that is saying two completely different things there.

Anybody feel like mathamancying us a hard numerical probability that Arvis will die if Derick attacks him?

Quote from: IronyOwl on September 02, 2013, 07:12:46 pm

TBH I think we should have gone with the Kill Plan, but healing is usually the safer bet. Not sure why I think we should just go for it this time.

Because it has a strong chance of succeeding. That said, the price of the unlikely failure is steep.

I think a back-of-napkin calc was already done earlier in the thread that pretty much covered it well enough, but why not?  Derick's best weapon is the Killing Edge, with an AS of 33 and a base Hit rate of 120, along with a Crit rate of 49 when including his class-specific skill.  Arvis, by contrast, has a DEF of 14, an Evade of 50, and a Luck of 10.  Respectively, their HP are sitting at 2 and 40.  Should Derick have swung, he would have had a 70% hit rate for 19 damage, at a 39% chance to crit, and as any attempt to double would still deal 38 damage minimum even if he hits both times, he would need to crit at least once.  The counterattack would have pitted his 63 Evade against Arvis's 125 Hit rate, for a 62% hit rate. 

Chance of Derick knocking out Arvis alone:
>Hit first shot, critical: 27.3%
>Hit first shot, fail critical: 42.7%
>>Avoid counter-attack (38% chance), retaliate successfully, and crit: 10.4% (assuming prereq occurs)

So, if I have it right...
Odds of knocking Arvis out: 31.7%
Odds of Derick getting knocked out by bolt-inna-face: 45.1%

So, yeah. 

It's actually running rather well for a beta.  Already ran into a few crashes during turn processing, but I'm not finding anything rather seriously flawed about that; thanks to how the game manages saves, it always saves before beginning turn processing, which lets you just go right back into the game and continue with no issues.  I wonder what's causing it, though; it feels like that one will be a pain to reproduce if it's tied to the AI acting in a particular way. 

As for myself, I forgot how bad I was at this game; I'm actually losing to the Normal AI.  It's not that the AI is much better (though it does seem to be a touch smarter), it's just that I'm that bad.  <_<

And on the opposite side of the world, you had the Nanking Safety Zone, where a dozen or so foreigners led by John Rabe set up a 8 square-km safety zone in an attempt to protect as many Chinese citizens of Nanking as he could from the Japanese as they invaded and brutally sacked the city, and he did it under no greater authority than "I am a Nazi, now shove off."  It didn't quite work as well as it could have since he had absolutely no authority or actual safe haven for them to escape to, but it still saved a lot of lives (credited with 200-250k people).  Just to top things off, he then went from Nanking to Berlin with documentation of the Japanese war crimes in an attempt to appeal to Hitler personally, counting on the Fuhrer's morality and sense of humanity to help him make the right choice. 
...
Yeah, well, it's not like he knew about the Holocaust in 1938.  He was arrested by the Gestapo and released on good faith after the company he worked for intervened to protect him, but at least he was able to preserve the evidence he brought. 

Raquel, for her part, crumpled up with barely a whimper in surprise as she collapsed to the ground.  Shock, she realized dispassionately as she curled up on the cold snow, slowly bleeding out.  Hopefully Anja would make it in time to save everyone else...

"Thank you, Anja, and stay safe." 

Move to (14,6); Call Magic (Heal): Riven
Raquel then moved forward to Riven, and with a few muttered incantations, channeled healing magic into her hand.  Reaching down, she let the magic flow through Riven, helping the shaman to her feet. 
"Are you alright now?  We'll have to watch out for these soldiers."

OOC: When Gregor moves by me to trade for the Vulnerary to heal Valor, please automatically give it to him to keep things moving, since I may not be online tonight to confirm it immediately. 

And since a replay helps, Barbarossa and I went a third go, where I only just scraped by. Replay.  Fun things that happened in the first two battles: me burning Swellow and activating its Guts; and me forgetting my own Magnezone's ability.

EDIT: Also, Culise v. DaveTheGrave.  Another one where Rapid Spin saves me from a very painful loss.