Bay 12 Games Forum

Theo: Hmm...

My top 2 scumpicks are FD and Shake. At the moment, I think Shake is just bussing FD. I'm more confident that FD is scum than Shake.

I think a bus is a very real possibility. And I think a FD-Tir or a FD-you team are possible, but not as likely as a FD-Shake team.

However. If I can't get you onboard for a FD lynch, I would consider a Shake lynch as a goodwill gesture. I think he's scum at the moment, but I'm less certain about him than I am about FD. It's worth nothing that if I just held the course, FD would get lynched. But I'd rather work with you, if possible.

Why do you think a bus at this point is unlikely?

Mod: We've got what, an hour? Is there any chance of a short finish-our-conversation extension?

Book: Reading the deadchat, how'd you know I was a Sympathizer on post 116?

I hope I never have to play scum-aligned 3rd party again, lol.

Tir: Found it! Reply 210. If there's some other one, lemme know and I'll try to dig it up.

abc's replacement: Could you give your opinion on why you think abc acted like such?

Honestly, I only gave Fiskav and abc's posts a quick scan. Not really any content from either, and no point trying to pick apart the posts from the person/people you are replacing, since you know their alignment. I think abc didn't realize Mafia Is Serious Business, and once he realized the commitment he half-assed it before flaking out. But, really no clue.

Tir: Day ends tomorrow, ~26 hours from now. Does anyone else want an extend?

And it's cool Tir; I'll dig and find them. The post number thing was mostly directed at FD, since I didn't want to skim over the meat of his argument. I don't expect them on every post.

Oh man, I've never used LurkerTracker before. This thing is AWESOME. I'm going to directly copy my post below, and add new observations in bold. If you're just now tuning in, you can read this instead of my other post today.

----------------------

FD:

1. Again, it was just an observation. I imagine Shakerag did it first and you examined his post before making yours. And I don't think you're scum-acting-like-town (ie Too-Town), I think you're scum-acting-like-scum. I'll call this Hapah's Lack-of-a-Fallacy.

2. I'll have a look at the posts between you and Theo tonight, then. We've got until Wednesday, yes? Upon reread, I don't see the same style or pattern of interaction. You each asked one substantial question of the other (here and here.). They don't have the same flavor, for lack of a better word. If anyone  sees it a different way, let me know: I sometimes have problems seeing all the angles.

3. Looks like an OMGUS to me, but maybe we'll agree to disagree.

My thoughts on Shakerag, along with a few other things: He honestly hasn't made a very big impression on me this game, likely in part because a lot of his posts have been IC-advice. If I had to rate him in terms of suspicion, he'd probably be slightly above Theo.

So the fact that he's made very few content posts (since I'm not certain that a post could be in IC-brackets and related to the game at the same time) doesn't bother you? I'll have to reread his posts (can LurkerTracker just give me the posts from one person?), but this is the impression I'm getting from you.

Hapah: Pretty much on your first content post, you laid into me. I don't think I've seen any suspicions of yours beyond this scumteam assumption (which, incidentally, is incredibly unwise in games where we don't have a PR with which to make absolute determinations of alignment/truth). Does anyone else pop up on your radar at all? What do you think about CA's statement that I am scummy for doing the same thing that he is?

I don't think it's unwise at this point, considering we've got to go 2 for 2 on lynches to win (Doc might give us another day, but I'm not counting on it). I'll examine new evidence after the first flip, of course, but there's not much margin for error here. As for suspicions:

Shake: I currently think he's scum, but he does have a content post brewing, so I'll give that a read. Still waiting for that post. RL probably happened.
CA: I think he's new-town fighting as best he can.
Theo: Seems to be pretty sharp for being in a BM. I think he's town, pending the review of his and your interactions. Yeah, still think he's town. Better hunter than I'd realized, too. And np, RL happens.
Tir: I think he's town. He's asking very valid questions and his efforts seem sincere. (And as a side note, I think he's been scum in every game I've seen since I joined the forums, lol. Let's hope the chain is broken!)

So something like FD > Shake > Tir > Theo > CA. Theo and CA are about equal to me.

Tiruin, Theodolus, Hapah, Shakerag: Do you see the arguments I'm making against CA? I'm afraid I might not have been as clear in text as I was in my mind. I don't care if you agree with it or not, I'm just curious to see if anyone else can understand the train of thought I followed to my conclusions.

Bulletpoints and/or post numbers would be appreciated. At this point it looks like I'm basically committed to a full reread tonight anyway, but lists of the major points/"aha!" moments (with post numbers, if possible) would be nice to make sure I don't miss anything central to your case. I still think your case CA is flimsy and he is just a new-town fighting back as best he can, with the limited time he has. I saw nothing to change my opinion on this, but if you can put up a post list and/or bullets I'd be happy to review them.

Quote from: Hapah

And agreed on the musing: Let's not go swimming in the wine.

It would be rather nice if we could all refrain from making arguments based on WIFOM, wouldn't it?

Cute.

And finally, NEED MOAR ACTIVITY! It's do or die time, people.

FD:

1. Again, it was just an observation. I imagine Shakerag did it first and you examined his post before making yours. And I don't think you're scum-acting-like-town (ie Too-Town), I think you're scum-acting-like-scum. I'll call this Hapah's Lack-of-a-Fallacy.

2. I'll have a look at the posts between you and Theo tonight, then. We've got until Wednesday, yes?

3. Looks like an OMGUS to me, but maybe we'll agree to disagree.

My thoughts on Shakerag, along with a few other things: He honestly hasn't made a very big impression on me this game, likely in part because a lot of his posts have been IC-advice. If I had to rate him in terms of suspicion, he'd probably be slightly above Theo.

So the fact that he's made very few content posts (since I'm not certain that a post could be in IC-brackets and related to the game at the same time) doesn't bother you? I'll have to reread his posts (can LurkerTracker just give me the posts from one person?), but this is the impression I'm getting from you.

Hapah: Pretty much on your first content post, you laid into me. I don't think I've seen any suspicions of yours beyond this scumteam assumption (which, incidentally, is incredibly unwise in games where we don't have a PR with which to make absolute determinations of alignment/truth). Does anyone else pop up on your radar at all? What do you think about CA's statement that I am scummy for doing the same thing that he is?

I don't think it's unwise at this point, considering we've got to go 2 for 2 on lynches to win (Doc might give us another day, but I'm not counting on it). I'll examine new evidence after the first flip, of course, but there's not much margin for error here. As for suspicions:

Shake: I currently think he's scum, but he does have a content post brewing, so I'll give that a read.
CA: I think he's new-town fighting as best he can.
Theo: Seems to be pretty sharp for being in a BM. I think he's town, pending the review of his and your interactions.
Tir: I think he's town. He's asking very valid questions and his efforts seem sincere. (And as a side note, I think he's been scum in every game I've seen since I joined the forums, lol. Let's hope the chain is broken!)

So something like FD > Shake > Tir > Theo > CA.

Tiruin, Theodolus, Hapah, Shakerag: Do you see the arguments I'm making against CA? I'm afraid I might not have been as clear in text as I was in my mind. I don't care if you agree with it or not, I'm just curious to see if anyone else can understand the train of thought I followed to my conclusions.

Bulletpoints and/or post numbers would be appreciated. At this point it looks like I'm basically committed to a full reread tonight anyway, but lists of the major points/"aha!" moments (with post numbers, if possible) would be nice to make sure I don't miss anything central to your case.

Quote from: Hapah

And agreed on the musing: Let's not go swimming in the wine.

It would be rather nice if we could all refrain from making arguments based on WIFOM, wouldn't it?

Cute.

Any questions for me, or about my argument. If Shake and FD pile onto someone (Chaos, probably) they could get the game to a no-lynch as it stands now. Though....we wouldn't lose if it was a no-lynch, so I guess that's alright, in the grand scheme of things.