Alright, I'm back! And thanks for not posting everyone! I just absolutely LOVE trying to get more scraps of data for my argument and being completely ignored!
I believe that
Flying Dice and
Shakerag are the two scum in this game. I came to this conclusion based on how their interact with each other, and (to a lesser extent) how they vote. I'll detail it as much as I can below.
Note that Shakerag was MIA on vacation (I think it was vacation) until about page 7, so I didn't dig too much before that. To be honest, there's not a lot to go on D1 period. Both Flying and Shake manage to avoid suspicion the first day. There was exactly
one question between them, and it was a softball question at that. It's D1 though, so I really didn't expect much. It is
interesting how they didn't interact at all, though.
D2 is a little different story. They each come out
guns blazing. They each pick out their respective target, and start laying into them (FD with a little more vigor). Even when Shake asks FD a question,
he manages to include a jab at Deathsword.
I will admit that Deathsword did a very admirable job of digging his own grave. But they each have an almost single-minded focus on their target of choice. I
also like how most of their questions to each other appear to be asked
only to give a way to backpedal, or to strengthen one of their cases.Flying Dice: Why exactly do you feel BMC's vote on Deathsword was an OMGUS? To me, it looks like the two of them were faffing about at first, Deathsword went paranoid-defensive and WIFOMy (IronyOwl's analysis of his posts around this point is interesting as well), dropped an FoS on BMC for reasons I can't really see, and then BMC voted Deathsword and included reasons for why. What am I missing? Also, you stated at some point D1 that Deathsword "hit the top of my list of suspicions" (#83). What made him fall from the top position?
See above. He and Deathsword were going at each other for pretty much the entire RVS, but BMC didn't bother voting for Deathsword until he had FoSed him (and drawn an opportunist-voter onto BMC); he also tried to justify it by saying essentially "Oh, yeah, all that stuff earlier makes you look scummy, so have my vote.". He also cast that vote pretty much as soon as he saw the vote and FoS on him, and I felt that he targeted Deathsword because he was the root of the pressure on him.
Further clarification to Shakerag:
In short, I was pretending to be thinking about changing my vote to see if Deathsword would bend under pressure. He didn't (or at least not enough to draw my vote), therefore I kept pushing BMC. I wanted to see how he would react.
Flying Dice: Honestly, as of right now, I'm not really seeing Chaos Armor as terribly scummy nor a bandwagon starter. Looking back at early D1, I see newbie behavior, and I see that he possibly had a good point on BMC's claim of "being suspicious of Deathsword the whole game" ... because the game had been going for all of four hours at that point. Do you think that's valid in context?
Looking back on it, I do, to a certain degree. I've been going over that stretch of time more carefully, and I believe that it could have been either newbish behavior or scummish behavior, hence why I unvoted. I'm going to need to reevaluate my thoughts on this carefully, but I'm suspicious enough that I don't want to simply drop it.
Shakerag and IronyOwl:
You've had your votes on Deathsword practically since the start of D2 and haven't been talking to him very much in the past few days. How certain of your suspicions are you; and are your suspicions of him primarily based on BMC flipping town after he and Deathsword went after each other? Incidentally, why have you two been (apart from a time around June 15th) pursuing the same person to such a degree?
If I'm voting for someone and not continuing to question them, then I'm pretty confident that they're scum. BMC flipping town isn't a basis for my suspicions on Deathsword, but that helped to reinforce them. I'm not going to go back and review IronyOwl's specific reasons, but I'd be inclined to assume that he's picking up on the same things that I am.
FD's characterization of himself taking fire
here while he has a whole one vote doesn't help him either (and thanks for pointing it out Tir, I almost missed it). It's scum being over-sensitive to attention. And Shakerag, the hell is up with the entire second half of
this post? You know better than that.
And at the start of D3, once the Cop got shot?
Seriously? Damn.
Shit.
Yeah, I can feel the sincerity. D3 opens with FD throwing another broadside at Chaos, and then Theo asks this question:
Flying Dice
What do you think of IronyOwl turning up Cop? You were hitting the 'Suspect the ICs' drum for a bit (#212, #201) and now one of them turns up dead and town. Does that change your perceptions at all?
At which FD makes the biggest hedge post I've ever seen,
AND tries to diffuse Tir's suspicion of Shake in one go.
Flying Dice
What do you think of IronyOwl turning up Cop? You were hitting the 'Suspect the ICs' drum for a bit (#212, #201) and now one of them turns up dead and town. Does that change your perceptions at all?
My perceptions? Yes, obviously, because I have more information. Though it was less the "Suspect the ICs' drum and more the 'Suspect Everyone, Regardless of Who They Are' drum. Anyhow I don't particularly regret doing so, though the story might be slightly different if it had lead to a mislynch. Possibly because the BMXXXIII IC-scumteam was still very fresh in my mind and I didn't want to let anyone be ignored. I'm not going to spread WIFOM by speculating on the reasons (if any) for the scum NKing IronyOwl, if that was what you were pushing for.
Tiruin: What makes Shake's statement so suspicious, I'm curious? I don't doubt that I've posted something similar in the past; new information on alignments often does shoot hypotheses full of holes, after all.
Anyway, that's what I've got. It's far from perfect, so if you've got something better then put it on the table. Post any feedback or questions, shoot holes in my theory, whatever. Just get in here and start posting!
