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Messages - XXSockXX

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241
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 07, 2014, 10:28:45 am »
Quote from: miljan on September 07, 2014, 10:15:56 am
Hehe. Not correct dude (especially from wiki). There was no ethnic cleaning. There where civ casualties as in any war and crimes also, but when it comes to ethnic cleaning it did not happen nor there was a plan for it.  I am from kosovo (or better said was). A lot of things that where just simple propaganda just to blow things out of water so there is a support for bombing

And do you know what is even more funny, the real ethnic cleaning  happened after the nato ocupation of kosovo (in my house in Pec leaves another person). You will not find anything about it in the west news.
I talked to plenty of Kosovo Albanians who came here as refugees, they'd probably see that a bit different. I'm aware though plenty of Serbians were displaced too, that is a well known fact.

Quote from: miljan on September 07, 2014, 10:15:56 am
So. Ukraine is 100% same as kosovo (when it started). Rebels started fighting with support from the neighbor countries, military started fighting them in different areas. 99% same.
I don't get that. The Kosovo war resulted from the Yugoslavian civil war, where no side had that much backup from other countries, except for Russia diplomatically backing Serbia and EU/NATO backing Croatia and Bosnia.
In Ukraine, there was no civil war and there was no rebellion until Russia threatened military intervention and annexed Crimea under the pretext of protecting civilians that were not threatened at all. In Ukraine the whole thing could have been solved politically. It's not like the Ukrainian government tried to massacre civilians or like there was a rebellion before Russia created one.

242
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 07, 2014, 09:59:35 am »
Quote from: miljan on September 07, 2014, 09:49:08 am
No. There is literally no difference. Militery was killing and attacking rebels not the albanian  civilians. In same way the thing ukraine army is doing on the east. But you wouldn't get that information, you would get different information.
There is as much reason as in ukraine case.
Nonsense. Read up on the Kosovo war. There were plenty of civilian victims on both sides, and without NATO intervention, Serbian militias might have ethnically cleansed the whole area. It isn't nearly as bad in Ukraine now, and it certainly wasn't before Russia occupied Crimea. The situations do not compare at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_the_Kosovo_War

243
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 07, 2014, 09:44:05 am »
Quote from: miljan on September 07, 2014, 09:38:30 am
The real irony is if you want to talk about how west  is acting to same situation in case of kosovo and in case of ukraine.
The difference is, in Kosovo Serbian militias committed massacres against the Albanian population. I don't know if an independent Kosovo was such a good idea overall, but clearly there is a reason for it.
In case of Ukraine there was no such thing, the worst that happened to the Russian speaking population there was the repeal of a (relatively new) language law, that is not exactly the same situation as in Kosovo.

244
General Discussion / Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« on: September 07, 2014, 09:38:06 am »
Quote from: Leafsnail on September 07, 2014, 09:18:35 am
ISIS has a lot of former members of the Iraqi armed forces, so it's conceivable that they have a few pilots.
Yeah, this. Also there are reports that they are forcing captured Syrian pilots to train their people.

Still doesn't necessarily make them a threat on more than a local/regional level, they'd get shot down pretty quick.

245
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 06, 2014, 07:05:25 am »
Quote from: Guardian G.I. on September 06, 2014, 06:02:27 am
There's no clear reason whatsoever for Russia to invade Poland or the Baltic states. Will the Putin's bloody regime collapse without control over the strategic deposits of Latvian canned fish?
I agree that Russia probably has very little interest in invading Poland. The fears in the Baltic are more understandable (historical parts of the Russian Empire / Soviet Union, sizeable Russian minorities, possible landbridge to Kaliningrad, minor border incidents). I don't think there is an imminent threat, but Putin's aggressive behaviour isn't exactly comforting. The whole military escalation in Ukraine is driven by Russia, which makes everybody nervous, otherwise I don't think anybody really wants to invade anybody else in the area.

246
General Discussion / Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« on: September 03, 2014, 01:00:25 pm »
Quote from: Zangi on September 03, 2014, 10:54:47 am
Quote from: Duuvian on September 03, 2014, 06:20:41 am
Quote from: RedKing on September 02, 2014, 06:20:58 pm
If Islam needs to have an internal holy war to settle this (and hopefully move beyond into a Muslim Enlightenment, where newer, younger theologians synthesize Quranic verse and hadiths with modern thinking) then it might be best to just get it over with it. And it needs to be an internal thing, for legitimacy of the winning side when the dust settles.

I think that this Enlightenment is very possible to see within my lifetime. I don't think it necessarily has to be through war either, though I will not be the one to choose. I think that the ascension to power both religious and secular of a generation that has had access to the internet their whole life and who are willing to jihad against ignorance but not against their fellow man will be the key. I think ISIS and other radical groups know this too and have taken the initiative to do what they can prevent this course while there are still enough people willing to fight for them. I also believe some dictators or would be dictators share this fear of change but that is a different matter from ISIS for I think they fear a loss of their decadence rather than religious moderation.
This seems like high fantasy in my opinion.  You need those new younger theologians to... actually be out there in the middle east with their own congregations in significant enough numbers.  And not be killed for it, plus having the right influential people...  Most importantly, they have to agree on the finer details.  (Kinda like a heresy... in CK2 terms...)
I agree, this talk about an Islamic Reformation or Enlightenment is not very realistic. Despite the similarities, Islam and Christianity are very different, with different structures, history etc. The Reformation and the Enlightenment were very specific developments that only make sense within their time and context (the strongly centralised Catholic Church specifically), they are not something that can happen in completely different religions like that.

There is a sort of "modern"/liberal moderate Islam already, even in the Middle East, maybe it's just not that visible to us outsiders. I read an article (in German) about Lebanese TV satire directed at ISIS. (Now Lebanon is/was relatively westernized, but still.) Some of it reads like it's quite funny, like a piece about a taxi driver losing patience with an islamist who complains about music, cellphones and other heresies, until he's told to get out of the car and get a camel.

247
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 02, 2014, 04:37:17 pm »
Quote from: RedKing on September 02, 2014, 04:35:02 pm
Wouldn't it make more sense then to have the rat hanging from Germany? Although I guess that's thwarted because skulls don't have ears.
The guy who made this is clearly better at making graphic art than at having elaborate and consistent political opinions, so I wouldn't put too much thought into interpreting the thing...

248
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 02, 2014, 04:26:01 pm »
Some quotes from the artist:
Quote
This picture is not about Russia and China, it's about world's position on Syria on last year's G20 summit.

Pig head is Israel, rat is Latvia. Unfortunately, this art was made in a hurry about eight months ago, that explains everything, i guess.

Well, eagle skull for US, rooster for France, lion for UK and WW1-WW2 soldier skull for Germany (recognizable by russians mostly, i think). I can't really remember why Japan is rat skull, and i was really angry at Israel government for some reason (Syria related, probably), there goes the pig skull. I am Jewish myself, so it had nothing to do with antisemitism.

Latvia is a rat because Latvians honour their Nazi legion and supported other heads positions.

249
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 02, 2014, 04:18:14 pm »
Quote from: Loud Whispers on September 02, 2014, 04:06:20 pm
Can't quite tell who the blue white blue hydra head are though, or why an Austria rodent is clinging onto it for dear life.
According to the artist, it's Israel (not Argentina) and Latvia. Also looks like baby Serbia was inserted later by someone else.

Quote from: scrdest on September 02, 2014, 04:17:38 pm
Blue-white-blue is Israel. Fits the color scheme (white stripe with blue sides). And yes, I've checked half the world's flags out of curiosity.
I just googled the image.  8)

250
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 02, 2014, 03:51:30 pm »
Quote from: LordSlowpoke on September 02, 2014, 02:34:34 pm
Quote from: Ukrainian Ranger on September 02, 2014, 02:28:39 pm
I like this page
So, someone found a way to bring oil prices down and kill Russian economy without embargo? :)

people are not looking at syria/isis, so there are no worries about middle eastern instability, so oil prices are going down

if i were you i'd hope people focused on ukraine or whatever it is that they're focusing on so the prices keep falling
I wonder if that is related, but recently I read somewhere that ISIS is making millions selling oil from the facilities they captured in Syria and Iraq to the black market, for less than half the normal price...

Quote from: Ukrainian Ranger on September 02, 2014, 02:38:46 pm
I hope that North America and Europe will have a mild winter.
According to this article, in recent crisis scenario studies, it is estimated that Germany could do 5 months without Russian gas, which would be enough time to get alternative supplies. However Greece, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary would have problems much earlier, so that other EU countries would have to support them with their own gas supply. So, yeah, mild winter would be helpful.

251
General Discussion / Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« on: September 02, 2014, 03:33:31 pm »
Quote from: Sheb on September 01, 2014, 04:31:07 am
Yeah, the Kurds seems about the only nice people left in the area. Do you know which Kurdish faction is being funded? Iraqi Kurdistan I guess?
Yes, Iraqi Kurdistan. Germany obviously won't fund PKK, which is considered an illegal terrorist organisation here, or their Syrian allies YPG. There was/is some controversy over that, because Yezidi refugees from the Sinjar region claim that the Peshmerga left them alone while PKK/YPG fighters cleared a corridor for them to flee through Syria. Seems that the Peshmerga are mostly interested in defending their own lands, so this shipment isn't going to do much to stop ISIS elsewhere. It's unclear if they can even handle the equipment properly. And since the US could have easily done it themselves, I think it is mostly a symbolic contribution on the German part, just like the German contingent in Afghanistan as part of the NATO troops there.

Quote from: RedKing on September 02, 2014, 03:20:47 pm
Even more reason to stop fucking with ISIS then, wouldn't you say?
With the genocidal rampage ISIS is on currently we won't have much choice but to fuck with them. I guess currently everyone else is somewhat of a lesser evil. That might change if ISIS should get defeated, but that is how these clusterfucks always go...

252
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 01, 2014, 02:53:38 pm »
Quote from: Sergarr on September 01, 2014, 02:36:10 pm
As long as Russian soldiers keep on fighting against an enemy of Russia, the losses mean nothing. Russian psychology 101. Ever heard of Red Army's suicidal charges in 1941?
That was the courage of desperately defending their home against an (initially succesful) invading army. This is Russia invading a much weaker neighbour, who certainly wasn't "an enemy of Russia" when this started. If enough Russians realize that, support for this war will drop.

253
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 01, 2014, 02:35:29 pm »
Quote from: MetalSlimeHunt on September 01, 2014, 02:23:53 pm
Quote from: Sheb on September 01, 2014, 02:18:26 pm
Yeah, I'm not sure what the NHS has to do with this.
They desired a treatment the NHS would not provide, so they went somewhere they could get that treatment, and then were arrested for that. Perhaps not a direct involvement, but the fact remains that they were in all practical terms arrested for refusing to do what the NHS authorized.
As I understood it, it's the parents causing the trouble, as the boy might die without the right treatment and machines to feed him and they just removed him from the hospital without consultation.
NHS not paying for expensive experimental treatment is sad, but not unusual, and it certainly wouldn't be easier to get that treatment without NHS.

Quote from: Ukrainian Ranger on September 01, 2014, 02:19:21 pm
XXSockXX, You keep assuming some level of sanity in Russian political leadership I don't see that. The only thing that can change the course to a big, big war - revolt inside Russia. Will thousands of dead Russian soldiers and deteriorating quality of life provoke that? I don't think so. As likely, as Germans staring anti-Hitler revolt in 1944.
Well, there is still hope that it might work out, even if without a revolt in Russia. More dead Russian soldiers could turn public opinion a bit. Economic sanctions and lower quality of life might make the population more angry at the West than at their government, but the sanctions will cost some influential people a lot of money. And if we assume that Putin has some imperial aspirations, he won't risk getting nuked, so no WW3.

Seems like NATO and EU (ever slow as hell) are in the process of changing their positions to a harder course, specifically because the situation brings up memories of pre-WW2 appeasement policies and their disastrous results. The German president even said something to that effect (history shows that "appeasing aggressors only increases their appetite") at a WW2 memorial in Poland, which is pretty symbolic.

Still no good perspective at all for Ukraine, which is a shame really.

254
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: September 01, 2014, 02:04:12 pm »
Quote from: Ukrainian Ranger on September 01, 2014, 01:41:38 pm
Whatever solution will be found it is only a way to delay the beginning of the Third World War.
I still don't think so, MAD makes WW3 quite uninteresting for everyone potentially involved.
Cold War 2 is much more likely and unfortunately Ukraine is getting ripped apart between the fronts.

NATO officials seem to have reversed their previous estimations, they now think Ukraine is going to lose soon-ish. (link in German)

An Italian newspaper quotes Putin saying in a conversation with EU comission president Barroso: "If I want to, I can take Kiev in two weeks." (as a response to threats of economic sanctions) (links in German and Italian)

Looks like the EU is moving towards economic sanctions now, even if it will hurt, it will hurt Russia more in the long run.

255
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 28, 2014, 03:12:10 pm »
Quote from: Sergarr on August 28, 2014, 03:07:44 pm
I won't be happy until I see some real action from you guys.
Besides the joking, I wonder if you really want to go back to before 1989, when both sides were starinng at each other, waiting for a move. You're probably too young to remember that, wasn't that fun.

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