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Messages - XXSockXX

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256
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 28, 2014, 03:04:12 pm »
Hmmm...... *imagining a fantasy scenario of hundred of NATO aircrafts arriving in Easterm Ukraine, bombing Russian columns and then European politicians saying something like "what NATO aircrafts? Those were Ukrainian"*
That would be rather nice, yep
"I don't know what happened, my Ukrainian neighbour needed to mow his lawn, so I loaned him my aircraft carrier and 4 battalions of Leopard 2s..."

And if anyone thinks that being in NATO is sufficient for protection, well, that is still remain to be seen. i am skeptic about it.
That is the reason behind the recent NATO plans to station more troops in the East. If it was proven that NATO can't defend it's members, the West has basically collapsed.

257
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 28, 2014, 02:54:35 pm »
Wasn't the same happening in 2008, during the war with Georgia?
No, not like this. As I said before, opinion about Georgia was a lot more divided.

I still think the annexation of Crimea is the beginning of a new phase in East-West relations, any progress since the 80s that is not lost already, is completely at risk.

258
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 28, 2014, 02:43:21 pm »
Just because a lot of people forget fast, especially if it doesn't concern them directly, doesn't mean the important people do too. The flashy short attention span news sites are not that interesting, but if even the parts of the left that have always defended Russia call for EU sanctions, that might imply long-term shifts in political thinking. Putin might win a war against Ukraine, but he is alienating a lot of people and losing goodwill very fast.

259
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 28, 2014, 02:17:43 pm »
I'm just baffled by the total indifference from Europe to this whole invasion thing
What indifference? At least in German media the tone has shifted quite a bit with the recent developments.

It's clear that you can't wage open war with a nuclear power, so obviously there is not going to be much military help for Ukraine. That was absolutely clear from the beginning, what else would you expect? Stealth war on both sides? That wouldn't work out as long as all the proxy wars of the past...

There will be more sanctions though (slow as the EU is, talks begin next weekend), and probably NATO troops all along the Eastern Border, some time in the future.
Massive sanctions are difficult to get through, as that might cost people money and jobs and thus lead to politicians not being re-elected. But since it is the only thing that can realistically be done and nobody trusts Putin anymore, it's likely to happen.

Basically it shows that every single country that is not in NATO and has, or will have, a land border with Russia is completely and utterly fucked.
True. And who's fault is that? Putin is pretty much leading Russia back behind the Iron Curtain.

260
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 27, 2014, 05:12:10 pm »
I live in a major transportation hub of 300 000 people housing two military bases (and a freaking ICBM silo in Soviet times, it was removed in the 90s, though), in a country which is allied with Russia and houses Russian military installations. Should things get really, really bad, my chances of survival are 0% - me, my family, and everyone I know IRL will get vaporized by American nukes in the first minutes of a full-scale war.
If it consoles you, I think I live close enough to an important American base, that will likely be a target for the Russian counterattack. So I and everyone I know IRL will get to enjoy annihilation shortly after you and your folks.

(That's what I meant above BTW, worrying about something like that is a point of view I can understand beyond all cultural or political or whatever differences.)

261
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 27, 2014, 04:56:10 pm »
I'm currently drunk on euphoria. And the #RussiainvadedUkraine hashtag is moving at the speed of light.
To be honest, I have a hard time figuring out whether you are not taking all of this seriously or are being defensive about Russia or actually are enjoying the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. No offense intended, I'm just not sure how to read your tone sometimes. For example I think I get the angle Guardian GI is coming from, with you I'm never really sure what is serious and what is not.

262
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 27, 2014, 04:44:07 pm »
With NATO planning to significantly expand its military buildup on Russian borders, the future surely looks very bright for all of us. Blindingly bright, I'd even say.
Well, thank Putin for that. With his behaviour in the last few months, he might as well go ahead and build some new NATO bases himself.

Nobody was very happy about it, but I don't recall it being portrayed mostly as a war of Russian aggression, more like a very harsh reaction to some stupid moves by a Georgian government that was a bit overconfident about the backing it might get from the West.
CNN's broadcast of 08.08.08, "Russia Invades Georgia"
You realize that "Western media" is not only crappy American TV news.
German chancellor Schröder blamed Saakashvili at the time (not that surprising, since he's Putins buddy). The EU blamed Saakashvili too, while being a bit more reserved toward Putin.

263
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 27, 2014, 04:25:49 pm »
Look, in Georgia the Western media has immediately said that it was a war of Russian aggression against Georgia. We said that the Georgia started the war first and it was a peacekeeping operation. They still say that this was a war of Russian aggression on Georgia.
See? They didn't get fooled by Russian media that time.

I don't get it. What is so different about the situation now?
The Georgian government got blamed a lot for the situation back then in Western media. And Putin didn't deny Russian military action back then. Nobody was very happy about it, but I don't recall it being portrayed mostly as a war of Russian aggression, more like a very harsh reaction to some stupid moves by a Georgian government that was a bit overconfident about the backing it might get from the West.

What is different now is that this time Russia denies everything, even when it is ridiculous to do so and when almost nobody believes it anymore. No open involvement, just nice men in green, and regions "liberating" themselves.

264
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: August 26, 2014, 12:59:54 pm »
Thousands of people, quietly and casually pushed away from their homes, or killed. That's all because of the mountaineer people mentality "might makes right". If they perceive you as weak, they will attack you.

I know of a certain other culture that acts like that.

Can you guess who I am referring to?

I would guess the United States vs Native Americans, especially the 19th century. But that wouldn't be the only example, just the first one that comes to mind.

It's a past that we're.... not particularily proud of.
Russia. I think he was referring to Russia.

BTW, burningpet, Do you have any laws against Israeli citizens participating in some war abroad as mercenaries\volunteers?
Don't know what Bay12 guidelines say about trying to recruit forum members as mercenaries.  ;)

265
Are you speaking about the accusation that Gaddafi soldiers were raping protesters?
No, I was thinking of stuff like this (Google should turn up many other articles about that).
Just saying, while I agree that Libya with Gaddafi was somewhat preferable to what is now in geostrategical terms, on a personal level he very much got what he deserved.

266
Right, they should have helped out the famously non-terrorist Qadaffi

Exactly. seeing how the libyan people were FAR better off with qadaffi, i'd say yes, they should have helped out the recently non-terrorist qadaffi. or at least do nothing when he tries to protect his country from Al-qaeda.
Not sure about the "far better off" part, as Gaddaffi was a pretty sick individual who tortured and raped his population for fun in his spare time. But from a geostrategical point of view, he kept the region stable, which somehow makes him, if not a lesser evil, a more predictable alternative. Same with Saddam, it was underestimated how much he kept Iraq together. And with evil crazy dictators you can make deals and arrangements, with religious fanatics, you can't. That is the moral dilemma currently, with a mass murderer like Assad in place the region is more stable and less dangerous than with islamist militias taking over.
The only long-term alternative would be to build up and support democratic moderate forces in the region, but that opportunity was missed a very long time ago. With the grassroots support islamists have built over the decades, plus all the tribal, ethnic and religious rivalries, it does not look very viable now. Even the Kurds are actually splintered into many rival factions, they just keep it together to fight IS. If that should be over, things might look different again there too.

267
Eh, that's only going to become a problem if there are territorial or operational overlaps. Ansar al-Sharia is not that far from other islamists in the region, just the usual ideology, so I don't know about them, but Boko Haram are pretty much crazy heretics by conservative Sunni standards, they don't have that much in common with Arabic Islamic movements. So there is some potential for conflict maybe, but I don't think Arabic Islamists care much about Nigeria currently.

268
General Discussion / Re: Calm and Cool Progressive Discussion Thread
« on: August 25, 2014, 07:16:53 pm »
Seems more like a contrarian thing than trolling to me, but then I have not followed the discussion that closely.

269
I knew there were many factions in Lybia, but didn't know of any of them claiming caliphate.
I have not either, but I can see it becoming a fad, at least as long as IS seems to succeed with that tactic. It was something Al-Quaeda consciously avoided, but IS looks successful with it, so it could become an example for others.

270
General Discussion / Re: Calm and Cool Progressive Discussion Thread
« on: August 25, 2014, 07:04:59 pm »
Phmcw: No offense, but are you a troll? Cause  remember arguing with you about sexism, and the argument you put forth was people were subject t racism, therefore sexism wasn't an issue. now you seem to be arguing that people are subject to classism, therefore racism isn't an issue.
Eh, I don't know if I agree with Phmcw on everything he says, but he's got a point in that the American point of view on race issues is quite different in some regards to the European one, so I'd say certainly no trolling there.

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