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Messages - Frumple

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7171
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 12:46:54 pm »
Oh, wasn't intending to suggest sessions going would be cause for impeachment goings. It almost certainly wouldn't without some serious other stuff going down in the process. Just that the WH actually hard cutting off most connections with the RNC would (be one of the few things that could) potentially lead (after a bit) to a RNC that might suddenly find the prospect not quite so unpalatable.

7172
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 12:13:23 pm »
Probably? Iirc there's already been rumblings from trump's lot about cutting the WH loose from the GOP. It'd kinda' fit their profile... though it'd probably be political suicide and quite possibly the only way you'd get the reps to impeach a president elected on their ticket.

'Course, I'm fairly sure at least some of the folks at the WH recognize just how bad an idea that is. Just a wee titch less sure that knowledge would actually stop 'em :V

7173
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 11:29:03 am »
Ah, never mind, I was getting sessions confused with the other one that had a recusal kerfluffle.

7174
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 11:08:43 am »
Huh. Did sessions actually get around to explicitly recusing himself? Last I paid attention he was still trying to hump the letter rather than spirit of the statements involved.

7175
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 08:21:42 am »
Ah, fair enough. Probably not that far, if still fairly fair to think it might be more likely than earlier. Kinda' hard to say where the lines are with the actors involved without bombs actually flying, unfortunately :-\

7176
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 29, 2017, 07:34:20 am »
You're exagerating, there is a clear increase in the pace of tests over the last two years. One each in 2014 and 2015, 5 in 2016 and 12 so far this year. But this also mean that one extra test doesn't change much.

At this point, the one thing that could cause someone to overreact is NK displaying a capacity to send a nuke via ICBM.
... isn't the whole reason people have been getting increasingly tetchy about the last couple (including the latest) specifically because they've been displaying greater apparent launch capability, relative to earlier tests? Iirc (I just woke up, mind, so I'm pretty definitely forgetting details, here) either this latest one or the one before displayed capability fairly conclusively indicative of being able to hit LA for the first time, or somethin' along those lines.

One extra test can change quite a lot if that one extra test is different from the ones before, heh. There's also, as y'note, the increase in frequency. Which I can kinda' understand, either 'cause they're getting close or 'cause one of their primary antagonistic entities (the US) ended up electing someone persistently inconclusive about how willing to nuke someone they are. Hand in hand with the political party that's been willing to include glassing other countries in their rhetoric without much or any censure gaining enough institutional control to conceptually make an offensive strike possible.

Add on that one of the major nuclear powers (russia) also violated a non-proliferation treaty (ukraine's you-no-invade-we-no-build-nuke thing) in the last few years, and you got some pretty fresh incentives to get stuff able to get in the air.

One of those cases where as sketchy as all hell as I am about NK being a nuclear power, at the same time I have trouble blaming pretty much fucking anyone for wanting the capability and the potential deterrence it brings to the table, right now.

7177
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 06:19:01 pm »
That, it probably would be. If observed from a distance... and wasn't happening in relation to the WH staff et al, heh.

E: One of those things that could make for a pretty good sitcom, but makes for a much, much less amusing reality :V

E2: Ah, though re: the DHS secretary, it looks like their next down will be acting secretary for... a while. Sometime in fall, probably. Next batch of congressy mess.

7178
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 06:11:41 pm »
Don't think anyone knows, yet.

Though I'd probably wager decent money a drill sarge would go astoundingly poorly, unless they have something else going on, too. Their skill set doesn't quite lend itself to the sort of power dynamics and personalities you'd be dealing with in the position.

7179
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 05:59:46 pm »
Dunno about natural fit, but a general of particular merit would probably have a decent amount of experience corralling subordinates and relative peers to get something or another done, either directly or by knowing what sort of critter to tell to do it for 'em. Stuff's admin and logistics and politics as much as anything to do with combat.

Chief of staff really wouldn't be too distant from that, conceptually. 'Course, there's something of a difference between the sort of enlisted military admin would be regularly dealing with and what that poor bastard's getting saddled with stepping into the WH.

7180
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 04:14:23 pm »
Have to see how it goes, heh. Signs point to raging dumpster fire, but maybe that's an improvement.

Also, hey, priebus is out. "General/Secretary" kelly is the new chief of staff, apparently.

E: Though that does mean we're getting a new secretary of homeland security. Gods know who's going to end up with that.

7181
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 03:22:10 pm »
Wh. Why in the world would you think the GOP would fight in the ACA's defense in that situation?

They'd shit mightily on both. That assuming they didn't use current control of congress to make sure it never made it to the floor. Probably attempt to leverage the effort for another go at repealing the ACA,* and/or do their damnedest to make sure to tangle up things enough to take pressure off other areas pertinent to the upcoming election.

Like, there is not a scenario not involving cocaine laced laudanum where the GOP would speak in defense of obamacare in the face of something like that. They'd piss fire on everything and somehow double down on calling the ACA shit, something that's questionably physically possible at this point.

* The cries of hypocrisy write themselves if the dems tried repeal and replace after these last few months. Improve or supplement, you could get. Maybe replace, even, though I doubt actually saying that outright would go well. Starting to babble about repealing would give the GOP enough material to start a house fire.

7182
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 01:53:37 pm »
Well sure. Not really many better targets to yell at considering he's not going to be around to hold a grudge or somethin'. Him being yelled at is just an extension of the huge god-damned favor (that functionally cost mccain very little, since he's, y'know, going to be dead soon), letting a disproportionate amount of the vitriol the latest failure generates fall on the one guy involved here that has pretty much zero chance of mattering much past the next few years, if that long.

Hell, if I were trying to engineer this kind of thing, getting mccain on board with being the primary "villain" involved would be a pretty obvious step. Any political capital he has left to spend isn't going to be around much longer, and whatever flak he catches is flak that doesn't hit the other two sacrifices or the rest of the party that may still be there in a decade. If you're going to martyr someone you might as well squeeze as much out of it as you can, yeah?

E: And in other news... russia's decided today was a good day to seize US properties and demand our embassy to cut stuff. These last few days probably haven't been that pleasant for some of the folks in our government.

7183
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 10:59:17 am »
The ACA included over a hundred amendments coming from the conservative side of things, iirc. If that ain't bipartisan I don't know what the hell is.

E: Like, that's one of the primary reasons expecting some kind of bipartisan cooperation on healthcare from the GOP at this point is basically nonsense. We know what a healthcare bill would look like with substantial input from both parties, and we've already bloody passed an example of it.

Anything that starts with a broad rejection of the general shape the ACA ended up with is perforce not going to be bipartisan unless there are some serious changes in our body politic regarding the subject.

7184
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 10:52:04 am »
Man, if that last bit actually happens anytime soon I'd be hella' surprised. If they ain't stopped for eight years why the hell would they stop now? The bipartisan healthcare bill already passed, and the GOP's spent the better part of the last decade trying to burn it to the ground. Why would we think it's something they're going to get out of their system?

7185
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread: The Russian shoe deepens
« on: July 28, 2017, 10:46:34 am »
... what? Like, pushing for something else is good, but doing it right now would be kinda' pointless. There's fuck all way they could win a vote for something like that until the 2018 elections are over at best, and it's fairly likely not even then.

Making intimations toward something like that (which, hell, m-whatever expansion would count as a starting/continuing point, and it still needs to be spread out a bit) would be fine, but burning political capital on it right now would be the exact opposite of wanting to win.

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