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Messages - Frumple

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7411
I've seen folks point to the southwest border data, mostly. It's massively overselling what trump is managing on the immigration enforcement front, but it definitely is a notable change.

The fact that Trump has conflicts of interests WAY up the wazoo isn't surprising. What seems surprising is more people aren't making a fuss over this one.
Conflicts of interest, yes, but this isn't conflict of interest. It's looking entirely like a straight up bald faced emoluments clause violation, never mind the general corruption it signals; money coming from a foreign business or power to the president's personal coffers over a deal he personally oversaw. It's definitely surprising no one seems to have noticed, though, yeah.

7412
Just a reminder, presidents can't be charged with crimes for anything that happens while they're in office

I thought that only applies to things he does presidentially.

so if he, for example, murdered someone in cold blood...
Iiii'llll say it again. We. Don't. Actually. Know. That.

To stop directing a statement directly a neo or slu, a quick overview, to summarize stuff that's very, very easy to find. There are exactly three cases specifically addressing presidential immunity that have come before SCOTUS, as near as I can tell. Mississippi v. Johnson. Where it was ruled only one kind of presidential action is exempt from being sued. It was many things, but what it wasn't was a criminal case. Then there was Nixon v. Fitzgerald. Which explicitly ruled that the president was not immune to criminal charges, only liability for civil damages, and again, only when in pursuit of discretionary presidential actions. The latest was Clinton v. Jones. In which the SCOTUS was very explicit that civil lawsuits filed for acts previous to office and ones not accrued by action made during function of office, that did not defensibly impact the president's ability to perform the duties of office, still have weight.

The summation is that presidential power protects you from civil suits brought about because of exactly one sort of presidential action (discretionary). And that's it. All. Nothing else.

Civil suits from before presidency, good. Ones brought against actions having nothing to do with the execution of presidential duties (and goddamn, has trump been trying to set himself up for that one), in the clear. Anything having to do with criminal charges, for any reason and by anything the president does in the pursuit of anything? We don't know. It hasn't been ruled on. It hasn't been tested.

If the times are sufficiently fun, we get to find out somewhere in the next few years.

E: Okay, wow. I'm just going to spoiler this because I seriously can't be arsed to format this thing, but let me share some of my quick notes from some early morning checking into a previous observation. Also note: Trump? Reported as >25 million in BlackRock. BlackRock CEO? Was (still is?) on presidential business advisory council.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
See, before? I had noticed a connection, but, y'know, expected that I was just seeing a one-off thing or somethin'. Now? Now, every single fucking thing I've checked about that nam deal has been connected to at least BlackRock -- and by extension trump and the trump presidency. I kinda' want to finish checking as much of this shit as I can find, and look into the other stuff that's been mentioned in the news, but holy shit this is looking increasingly skeevy as all goddamn.
E2: Okay, let me just add another spoiler, update of the last one with, like. Another 10 minutes of checking in:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Every. Every. Single. Goddamn. Company. I can find mention of that nam deal going to. Has major investments in it by blackrock. What the living hell.

7413
... in other news, news seems to be saying the criminal investigation into trump has officially begun. Could be some fun times ahead.

7414
And unironically preferring incompetence to malevolence will face a rude awakening when a big crisis occurs. Every modern President has faced a few: The Arab Spring, the Financial Meltdown, Katrina & Sandy, the fall of the Eastern Bloc, the Iranian Revolution or any other unpredictable massive crisis (and, of course, 9/11).
Estimated to be somewhere between 2018 and 2020, actually, if you're looking for something basically guaranteed. We're due for a recession.

7415
Getting closer every day so far as the impeachment stuff goes, though :V

... though it'd probably be 2018 at the earliest, for that, unless he starts getting even worse. Having a go at mueller ping pong, ferex.

E: Oh, though there is at least one thing that's pretty damn unusual. Trump's not actually divested himself of his previous business connections, so far as anyone seems able to tell.

E2: Amusingly enough, apparently Nixon was the last one to really trip over that, too, ha.

7416
I mean... as soon as the lawsuits end? Or start. Hard to parse exactly what's happening with the DC/maryland thing from the news, honestly.

7417
Oh hey, neat. Looks like some (more) flint officials are actually catching criminal charges (if possibly not convictions, check back later) for the water stuff. Probably more bus speed bump than attempt at justice, but hey, I'd imagine it's better than some folks were expecting. Some of it actually sticks, it'll be that plus a bit, ha.

E: Also, just noticed this. Purports to be a preview of what GOP talking points to use in an attempt to discredit a WaPo report on mueller's investigation into trump. Someone interested in eyeballing the news might have fun doing some cross checking.

... though will say, if it is true, the GOP complaining about the amount of time sunk into an fishing expedition is some sort of hilarious comeuppance or something along those lines. Silly GOP, y'all went and set precedent for how long investigation attempts are supposed to go on, and it's a period described not with the word "months", but "decades". Rather get it over with, myself, but complaining on those grounds is bit of a farce.

7418
That's... odd. Pretty sure surrounding words and whatnot have been something a judge could get you for for quite a while, not starting with trump. Just didn't really see it much cause most of em could at least keep from getting caught quite so easily.

7419
... so I may have just wrapped up spending about fifteen hours more or less straight looking into the claims and explanations of a pair of hearing memorandum for the subcomittee of federal lands, because either my curiosity hates me or I hate it and I'm not sure which right now. Might find somewhere to stuff and link it to if someone wants to subject themselves to about four thousand words of me trying to find something of no notable concern in them and failing pretty miserably, sometime tomorrow, but right now I just want to say that may be the first time I've felt notable sympathy for even a presumably corrupt republican. Someone was subjected to those things, without the benefit of an internet connection and fifteen straight hours to scrutinize. The general ineffectiveness of many of our government agencies is something I no longer understand merely intellectually.

E: Oh, and holy fuck O&C. Someone may need to audit those guys with a spiked mace. And possibly most of western oregon. Just... just throwing that out there.

7420
Republicans pushing to allow spammers to pack your phone voicemail with spam: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/06/democrats-try-to-stop-gop-from-bombarding-you-with-robo-voicemails/
Man, that should be almost approaching interesting. Will pai hold to his word and fight robocalls excuse me while i catch my breath, sudden case of the roaring laughter or do we get to see how well he dances to the tune of his corporate and political overlords? I'm thinking tarantella, myself.
He's already pubically talked about replacing him.
Yeah, but now we get to see if he's actually going to waste congress's time by starting up an exciting game of mueller ping pong, and if congress will make their return serve. I won't lie, I would be totally down for watching a day or two worth of that.

7421
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tucson_shooting#Gabrielle_Giffords

Yes, I hope in the furor over this, people's memories aren't quite so short.
Man, if in the furor over this people's memories turn as dodgey as mine have been lately, we're might end up having problems bigger than trump. Kinda' surprised I was even remotely right, frankly.

7422
Huh. So in the last handful of hours while going over a congressional memorandum for reasons unimportant, I seem to have finally noticed what Zinke and his lot are doing in Utah. Namely, they appear to be trying to wave the banner of two tribes (well, more like one and a branch, now that I think about it) and one county to piss all goddamn over every single other native entity related to the Bears Ears national monument and just about all of the rest of areas surrounding the borders of it. Here's the fun little bit where it finally clicked (the site's actually from a group aligning themselves with the GOP position, oddly enough), looking around some of the rhetoric and inter-party-ish communication on the subject of the monument review that's been thumping about. They're hammering pretty hard that the majority of San Juan natives support the monument's dissolution, and they seem to be right. They're noting loudly that there's a lot of support to do that in San Juan, and, again, it looks like they're pretty on point, not as much as they're trying to act, but definitely a notable amount.

They're doing it while apparently goddamn ignoring just about everything that isn't San Juan, while trying to wedge conflict into local native groups and play up the importance of a fraction of them, and declaring to all and sundry that they're listening to local voices and concerns as they fucking ignore local voices and concerns. No points if you happened to have guessed one of the larger supporting voices is coming from resource extracting industries. And I'll leave it at that to avoid descending into vulgarity.

... also, congresscritter got shot up, huh. Huh. When was the last time that happened, anyway? Could swear I remember something from out west a few years ago. Female politisomething catching a head wound? Can't remember, don't want to search.

7423
... not actually what alway said. Rather entirely the opposite, even. The specific implementations are exactly what's being said needs the attention.

7424
Good point. The principle matters more than the example here, though. The key is that there is no "pope" of Islam. It's all just religious sects with their own religious heads.
*waggles hand* I'm not entirely sure how accurate that is? Like, I know the sunni/shiite split and other such stuff is/can get pretty hardcore, but I could swear I've heard of more than one priest-critter or scholar/theologian or whatever that had pretty broad respect even across sectarian lines.

... though, mind, it's also rather possible it's just my head feeling like screwing me hard enough at the moment I'm remembering shit that didn't happen. Would not surprise in the least, right now.

7425
I've already issued my complaints about Islam, probably in some other thread years ago. Issue is that extreme decentralization leads to every small disagreement leading to an entirely different sect, and movement between the sects is incredibly fluid. Problem is that this decentralization is fundamental to the religion as a whole; hell, it's how it spread so far in the first place. Hence, it's incredibly easy to end up with a sect such as Salafism pop up and the other sects don't really have much influence on trying to rid of it. If the Pope denounces the Methodist church, does anyone care?
Well, sure? Plenty of people, even non-catholics. They might not follow the pope's suggestions or think the denouncement is 100% on point, but care? Consider his position one with a degree of import? Sure.

Now... the head of one of the thousand denominations and a denomination in the US? Yeah, that's a different question. Folks may recognize the popehat and give it a degree of respect, or at the least attention (if for no other reason than it's pretty shiny), but the priest suspenders of backwoods splinter sect #659 might not even be recognized as a priest, never mind someone to listen to. Which is probably your point, the pope is just a terrible example to use for it since even many christians that don't agree to the pope's authority or espoused doctrine have a degree of respect for their faith and whatnot.

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