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Messages - Frumple

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7786
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: April 07, 2017, 07:58:06 pm »
Let's just go with sitherin. Sitherinurendo.

7787
Yeaaahh, that's the current UK, though. They may be somewhat more likely than major nations already are to chest beat or support that sort of aggression, even if they weren't particularly on board ahead of time. Current government leaders also aren't known for being entirely aligned with the concept of honesty, too.

It's also worth noting some of the reported "advised ahead of time" involved a warning period measured in hours that could have easily been single digit. Canada noted they were briefed thursday night, ferex -- and so far as I can recall, so far as timezones over here goes, that's also when the attack happened. If the mentioned brief was actually the first communication, they had less than twelve hours at the most to respond. There's support coming out now, but if there would have been -- especially for the method used -- had there actually been meaningful time to respond, well... that's a different question.

7788
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: April 07, 2017, 06:14:59 pm »
Bigotry (against the snakes at the least, amusingly enough), ambition (mostly related to underperforming his siblings), somewhat questionable loyalty and a degree of willingness to undercut folks. He still belonged in gryffindor by and large, but he definitely seemed to express a good chunk of green lot traits.
Fun question: To what extent do you think do these two have a rivalry going? Where specifically does this rivalry come from? How does it manifest?
Probably not much, really. The two houses had one of the few interhouse relationships mentioned in the books, and they seemed fairly disinclined towards mimicking the behavior of the red and green houses. Still, main friction point is probably differences in social inclination, if I had to guess. Claws seem notably more inclined against collective stuff, and more likely to turn on themselves, which probably rubs the puffs the wrong way, with something similar on the other side of things.

It'd probably just manifest as avoidance, though. One way or another neither seem inclined to wasting much time or much effort on rivalry that could be spent elsewhere, in contrast to the more noisy groups that are basically grouped up based on their inclination towards engaging in conflict and/or getting involved in social dominance plays. Maybe a degree of competition in certain fields (sports, mostly, maybe studies with the two having an edge in different areas). They kinda' seem like they're were mostly chillin' as the other two houses tear into each other and largely ignore the sidelined pair.

7789
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: April 07, 2017, 05:54:49 pm »
... and then you had cedric, who thrown under a resurrection bus or not, was identified as one of the most competent students in the school (and on par with or surpassing the some of the best in europe) and was a leader among the student body. Handful of others like that (tonks would stand as a decent example, probably), too. Their ethos is indeed hard work (both individually and collectively), they just didn't get much screen time.

7790
Everything else is just rumors, but the lack of damage does seem to indicate that they were ready for the strike (though only ~20 actually hit the base so that might have something to do with it too.)
Huh. Where are you seeing reports that 2/3rds of the missiles didn't hit the base? Because if that's accurate it would be yet another bloody strange thing about the mess. Tomahawks don't seem to normally display a 30-ish percent accuracy rate.

7791
They're apparently capable of giving retroactive approval, for what it's worth. Still. Right ways and wrong ways and all that. Forgiveness instead of permission is not something we want the goddamn POTUS invoking in relation to potential acts of war and definite acts of international relations fuckup.

E: And if I had to guess, it would probably be more for the initial act of aggression rather than pursuing a continuing campaign or whathaveyou. No doubt it could be done regardless, though, too, if for example a president decided to order missile attacks on someone we weren't in particularly open conflict with and wanted some legitimacy that wasn't strictly granted by the technical executive powers they were granted as part of their position.

7792
... and that trump shouldn't be commander in chief, since he either didn't have the area checked for non-combatants or didn't care. So far as that scenario goes. I'd be willing to try squishing them together and seeing if they cancel out, though, if we're doing this kind of conjecture.

E: Honestly, I think my next check is to see whether the russian PM was correct about the congressional approval thing. After attempting a nap, if I don't forget/get distracted. If they were, it'd put much less ambiguity on whether what he did was a violation of american law and/or executive power.

7793
... and in other news, apparently while all this was happening gorsuch was confirmed. Don't blame malice what can be explained by coincidence and all that, but the timing on all this shit would have trouble looking worse if someone was actively trying push things that way.

7794
Believe it or not, I'm more positive towards this than the majority of things Trump has done. My long-standing concern was that Trumpu-sempai's total lack of geopolitical understanding would lead him to follow his Russophile supporters and back Assad, effectively ensuring Russian dominance in the region. That seems to be impossible now, unless Trump really is going to turn around and roll over for the Russians in public.
It might still be on the books, actually. One of the more noticeable side notes to this whole shitshow is apparently that basically the only notable casualty in the attack was a syrian general known to be an opponent of assad. Maybe there won't be public roll over, but events seem to still be capable of this turning into following the rus.

7795
That would require a psyker on the level of the god emperor of mankind at this point.

And honestly, all things considered, me thinks it was about time the US threw its weight around on the issue.
Seriously though, I'd have a lot less trouble with weight throwing if it had actually been weight throwing and not a sucker punch to fucking everybody including us. Leery as all sorts of goddamn about direct intervention (i.e. boots on ground, let's do the ME dictatorship warp again because that's been going so goddamn well and this incompetent shit is going to manage better, yeah, sure), but stepping up pressure and doing shit like this would have probably sat alright with me.

If there had been any indication it was going to fucking happen. Maybe, hey, ask congress. Say something to the public that indicates something more was about to go down than empty blustering. Stuff like that. I'unno about the rest of my countrymen but I'd really bloody appreciate some heads up before we start doing shit that has the political implications this did.

7796
Nah, you could freeze it or something. Then it'd be a cold irradiated potato. Still probably want to drop it about as quickly, though.

7797
Ah, dunno if I communicated it well. What I meant by bad optics... well, you have an administration that's looking like it's potentially riddled with people with russian connections. That launches an unannounced attack that does structural damage, but not necessarily much else. Who are then confronted in the UNSC to give up <insert political goal here>, the example being economic sanctions, as reparation for the unprovoked attack (nevermind if it's actually unprovoked, that doesn't matter) on russian assets. The administration then immediately (or near enough to it) folds, gives russia what they want, and the issue (maybe) dropped. So the obvious conclusion is obvious, trump intentionally used our military to create an excuse to capitulate to foreign interests.

Like, that would be possibly the clumsiest and most obvious bit of political/foreign-government-compromised shtick I've seen in my life, but... this administration is not exactly a svelte operator. If they were so compromised, them being incompetent enough to do something that blatant is something I wouldn't be surprised to see happen. All that said, that's more <it's midnight and I'm really fucking tired> speaking than anything like actual conjecture. I'm just tired enough I can conceive of such a scenario actually happening.

7798
Spurred, maybe not. Take advantage of a giftwrapped opportunity, well...

Gods, now my sleep deprived mind is imaging russia demands the US stop or guarantee no more economic sanctions for the affront. The optics on that, particularly if the trump administration acquiesced, would be farcically terrible.

7799
Interesting. Apparently one of the russian more-or-less-propaganda rags (sputnik news) is claiming russia's demanding a U.N. security council meeting more or less immediately. Remains for something a bit more official to pop up, though.

... someone remind me who the stateside UN ambassador or whatever it is that'd show up to that meeting is? It'd probably be good to know how worried that should make me.

7800
Eh, there's conflicting reports. Some say dead russians, some say they were warned and there were few casualties even among the syrians. Way too early to really say, this happened less than a day ago.

Part of me suddenly wonders if it actually matters if any russians were killed or not, though. If there were no soldiers in ukraine, why the hell are the potential soldiers in that base going to be anything except exactly as dead as putin and co. wants them to be, regardless of whether russian military got caught in the attack?

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