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Messages - Frumple

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9241
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 28, 2016, 05:08:42 pm »
... the amusing thing is that, bandwidth wise, the awoo is like half the size of GC's sig image. Smaller than serg and MSH's avatars put together, too.

9242
Or perhaps the perfect machine. Brain implants for everyone!

9243
Yeah, pretty much. Investigation's not being reopened, media being media, comey possibly significantly violating FBI procedure, same old song and dance.

Oh, fun. Can't be arsed to link to Twitter but apparently updated information said there's been three emails of note found on the device in question... none of which had been withheld by clinton during the actual investigation. Entertainment news, ladies and gents.

9244
Quote from: SalmonGod
Quote
Automation and globalization

I've worked in international trade, and I see a lot of both things.  The account I work for in just the last three years has sent hundreds of jobs from USA to Mexico.  AND I've seen their suppliers talk about automating their factories.  There's a factory in China right now that's been causing me headaches for the last couple months, because they're behind on production, while re-tooling their factory to be fully automated.  I know... that's China... but it's a global economy, and a global issue.
For what it's worth, even without the outright automation and outsourcing, the manufacturing sector was something always doomed to eventually shrink strictly because of improvements in other ways. It would have been slower and maybe not due for another generation or two, but the productivity thing really is a sort of kiss of death (very metaphorically and probably with a bit of hyperbole). There's just not really a way to match or surpass peak employment (proportionally, anyway) when that high is contingent on (sometimes gross) inefficiency. As the field matures the amount of people needed to do the same amount of work shrinks. And as that happens, even if the industries in question continue to grow overall, they're just not going to have the same employment to expansion ratio that they did previously.

Things as unassisted as administration and organization improvements that came (and are still coming) with more experience in the field were enough to make it so every extra pound of stuff churned out is a fraction less of a worker needed for it to happen, and while there are harsher limits on flesh and simple good logistics than that plus a metal helping hand, there's still been pretty substantial gains just from that. And in the face of that... the employment is going to shrink. In the face of a growing population (even a slow one), the jobs are going to "disappear", as many unskilled laborers (workers period, really) aren't going to be needed, etc., so on, and so forth. Which fucks a metric shitton of people, especially young ones, but there's not many ways to stop it and most of what there are is just kinda' untenable.

S'just... there's a reason relying on stuff like manufacturing is just a terrible idea in the long run.

9245
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 28, 2016, 11:24:31 am »
More like foreign language soap opera/daytime drama. Which is, uh. Probably worse, by whatever measure you care to use.

I think the point you start watching subtitled/dubbed soaps is the point where you're no longer scraping the bottom of the barrel, you've dug through and somehow managed to find yourself several feet below ground, having tunneled through concrete and similar materials.

And the barrel wasn't on the ground floor.

9246
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 28, 2016, 10:58:53 am »
It appears to be a TV drama, actually. Not anime. Though it does look like there's several different things all named GOLD so... who knows.

9247
Not very many people like to see themselves as a bad person, neo. Is probably the most of it. They insist otherwise because it looks better to others and makes themselves feel better (more deserving of their advantages, etc.), too. They're not suppressing any challenges to their power, they're helping people by maintaining the... whatever. Hypocrisy can be a hell of a drug. Along those lines.

9248
There is certainly an increase in productivity since 1920 but some of that can be attributed to population growth (Currently above 300% of 1920's population) and the fact that people are living longer and working longer as well. I think it's probably a flat out falsehood to say that the workforce has shrunk since 1920.
The raw numbers, no. Since the 70s (you can adjust the date range near the top), yes, but not the 20s. Percentage of the workforce? Since the 40s (you'll want to compare page 879 & 880, specifically the non-ag growth and manufacturing shrink -- goods producing employment in general has been dropping (again, largely because we've been getting better at it), but manufacturing work has been dropping faster). Possibly further, considering the 1919 percentage. Pain in the ass to find good comparison data on this stuff, though. It's definitely out there but I don't really have nearly the energy needed to collect it together anymore and if anyone's done a sensible workup I couldn't find it with the amount of effort I was willing to expend to look.

How much would population growth affect jobs though? It creates more workers but it also creates just as much new demand for work.
As for that, I've already lost the numbers trying to hunt things up, but iirc I saw labor force growth averaged around 1.7% per year since a ways back. You can get an eyeball* if you hit top picks under labor force statistics, then civilian labor force level (LNS11000000) and adjust the data display right (more formatting options, year as far back as it'll go, include 12 month percentage, scroll to the bottom table it should generate). Can't seem to convince it to actually display the annual averages, but you don't really need it to get the gist of things. Again, manufacturing output, averages out to ~3-4% (3.8, more specifically). Productivity's been going up faster than our work force has. Notably so. And that while the portion of our workforce dedicated to that production has been shrinking.

Frumples argument was that automation cause a better than 300% increase in productivity since 1920.
... no, no it wasn't.

*It's really bloody irritating trying to share data on our bloody BLS site, so apologies for not just linking the data directly. Damn thing needs some sort of linking option for generated tables, but if it has one I can't find it.

9249
... no, most of it was just due to automation and advances in production. American productivity in terms of the stuff those jobs used to come from has largely either not budged, kept growing, or barely slowed down. And yet the workforce continues to shrink, and it's not going to stop. Outsourcing is a thing but when it comes down to it the core issue for unskilled workers is that they're increasingly just not fucking needed anymore. Not that the job can get done cheaper elsewhere (though it's definitely an issue, it's not the major one), that the job can't be done cheaper by humans period, or that one person is now doing the job of several (dozen).

Even if you magically ended all outsourcing overnight and produced absolutely everything locally (and it somehow didn't smash the economy into little pieces in the process) those jobs still wouldn't be coming back to nearly the extent they used to, and even if it actually slowed things down they'd still be bleeding out. Literally the only way to fix that would be burning down modern factories and infrastructure, or assuming direct control and instituting employee productivity caps or something mad like that. What has mostly cost these folks their jobs isn't cheaper labor elsewhere, it's increased productivity per worker. Even if you artificially increased the price of labor you'd still be losing jobs compared to even a few decades ago, never mind during the height of factory employment.

Effectively what's happened/happening to former blue collar/manufacturing work is the same thing that happened to farm labor back when agriculture started getting better equipment. We've still got roughly the same (or better) muscle when it comes to actual production*. We just don't need nearly as many people to do it.

*The net domestic growth, by the by? Averages out to ~3-4% per annum since 1920. Manufacturing output has been increasing the whole goddamn time the workforce has been shrinking. Roughly 370% increase in production over the last ~century.

9250
Barring that third year grading, anyway.

Though I won't lie... I've quite enjoyed the time I've sunk into it so far, but I've also been cheating rather outrageously, ahaha. Movement boost alone makes things nicer, to say nothing of the ABSOLUTE MASTERY OF TIME and FISH EATING HABITS. Always loved the moon style gameplay but loathed the day night cycle, so having a switch to make it stop and go tends to make it less frustrating.

... probably should look into mods, too, though. Everything else aside, the doctor's face infestation has been a constant source of concern.

9251
Protectionist trade policy only really works when there's industry left to protect, after all. At least it would fuck the multinationals, but that wouldn't exactly make things better now that they've already got their claws buried in the world economy.
Hell, we have industry, it just doesn't need more people or much in the way of protection. For all folks kvetch about manufacturing et al leaving the states, we're still one of the major world powerhouses there, and so far as I'm aware even our strictly domestic stuff has levels of productivity that could only uncharitably be called merely sky high and still rising. Can't do too much to fix that with protectionist policies.

Unless said policies involving taking sledgehammers to modern factories and infrastructure, I guess :-\

9252
Last I paid attention (whch wasn't that long ago, but again, lying motherfucker with the consistency of a weathervane in a waterspout -- it's entirely possible he's spewing something else already) his economic policies aren't short term boosts, either, really. Maybe (but only maybe) will help some folks to some degree, but there's more than one or two parts to an economy.

9253
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 27, 2016, 08:52:44 pm »
Oooh, wait, you mean the catbutt avatar. Probably. I was thinking sigs, whoops.

Shuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuush! <_< *glares sternly*
For what it's worth, I'm at least fairly sure I didn't save it somewhere, and am too lazy to try it hunt it down for the people that don't remember the x de la housecat. Perhaps it's some small comfort :3

9254
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 27, 2016, 08:39:50 pm »
Happy thread person. Probably misremembering, then. E: Oooh, wait, you mean the catbutt avatar. Probably. I was thinking sigs, whoops.

9255
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: October 27, 2016, 08:28:02 pm »
Be glad it's not the old one. Thank goodness no one around here remembers that, or saved it. That'd look REAL awkward right now.
... wasn't it that one from GC?

E: For the curious, if my memory's working, gasbug there's talking about this.

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