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Author Topic: Roguelike Mafia 4 - Haste makes waste. [Game over!]  (Read 59439 times)

Toaster

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - Caught in the Act [Night 3]
« Reply #240 on: May 08, 2012, 08:30:10 am »

Much like the previous day, no one goes missing in the night.  With the success of the previous day, things are looking better.

However, you're all sure there is at least one more threat out there.  Can you find the threat before it's too late?


Day 4 has begun!  Day 4 will last until Thursday 5/10 at 11 PM EST.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
God help us if we have to agree on pizza toppings at some point. There will be no survivors.

Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #241 on: May 08, 2012, 08:54:40 am »

Nice.

Who got protected? Do we have any leads?
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Urist Imiknorris

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #242 on: May 08, 2012, 10:04:12 am »

I protected Native. He was not attacked.
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YOU CANT NOT HAVE SUSPECTS IN A GAME OF MAFIA

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If Tiruin redirected the lynch, then this means that, and... the Illuminati! Of course!

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #243 on: May 08, 2012, 10:31:17 am »

I protect Shakerag (again), and he was not attacked.

Shakerag and Native, can you two confirm protection?
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Shakerag

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #244 on: May 08, 2012, 11:09:17 am »

I didn't receive any indication of protection. 

And I was awesomely helpful by preventing Urist Imiknorris from being redirected.  Woo.
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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #245 on: May 08, 2012, 11:31:37 am »

Mod: Does a Protected target receive any sort of protect notification if the protection doesn't trigger? I thought this had been brought up already, but a quick look through the thread didn't turn up anything.

I was hoping we could confirm the protect targets; but the more I think about it the more I think it won't notify.
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Toaster

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #246 on: May 08, 2012, 11:37:43 am »

Mod: Does a Protected target receive any sort of protect notification if the protection doesn't trigger?

No.
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HMR stands for Hazardous Materials Requisition, not Horrible Massive Ruination, though I can understand how one could get confused.
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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #247 on: May 08, 2012, 11:49:54 am »

Thanks Toaster!

Bookthras: Welcome to the party!

Native/Jack/Bookthras: What were you three up to last night?
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Bookthras

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #248 on: May 08, 2012, 01:15:46 pm »


Howdy people! Glad I didn't miss this game after all.

So, I read through the thing, and have a few questions and observations:


NativeForeigner: You are Tiruin's scumbuddy. Evidence for this: your anti-town moves (no-lynch, chain-lynch) listed below, your interesting interactions with Tiruin. Also suspicious are your lack of claims for night actions, even when everyone else did, and your attempts to lurk your way to victory.

Outside your interactions with Tiruin, on D1 you had that spat with GG [1], (which, without being actual evidence, dovetails nicely with scum's decision to off him), after which you proposed the single most anti-town move on D1: a no-lynch. A D1 no-lynch does not help town at all. Even a mislynch is preferable to a no-lynch D1, because a flip provides information, which the town direly needs, and gives context to the day's conversation. A D1 no-lynch gives zero information, merely a chance for the scum to NK. You know this, it's not news to you. Blatantly anti-town move tells me you are scum. Plus on top of this, your D2 suggestion of chain-lynching people ("lynch one, if he flips town lynch the other") at a time when a second mislynch would be terrible for town [2].


Regarding your interactions with Tiruin:

First pressuring him "going with your gut" without asking him questions [3], as soon as he came under some fire D2; your lack of actual questions or pressure on him, and not trying to actually push for his lynch but allowing the lynch on Mr.D to go through instead uncontested, merely looks like attempts at distance; this post, for example, is pure distance and shows lack of conviction on your vote, but you left it on Tiruin through the day once it was clear he wouldn't hang.

Then on D3, once Tiruin panicked and evidence mounted on him very quickly, you decided to bus him here. Note how you express no actual conviction, pressure or questions again, it's merely a bus "for being scum", and you fail to try to get anything out of him or do any hunting of anyone else for the rest of the day.




So that's that about Native. But there's something else going on. Experience tells me that with ten players, three scum and a 3rd party is too much, so it makes sense there are only two actual mafia, but then for balance I think there is still a 3rd party out there. For starters, a brother is not a particularly powerful 3rd-party role, so for balance there should be at least one more (6-2-1-1 is a safe bet). We know it's not a killer, as all kills/attempts have been accounted for. It may be something rather innocuous like a second brother or survivor, or something more sinister like a cult. We should not ignore this possibility.


Imiknorris: I find your use of "we" in this post vaguely offputting, along with your boasting here. It smells off to me. You never explained why you chose Jack as your protection target, please tell us a bit about that. Do you think he's town? Why? If you were a survivor, would you claim it at this point?


Jack AT: Mr.D was a brother to you, wanted you to win, so claimed and flipped, but you didn't even raise an eyebrow about it. Are you a brother as well? There's been quite a few claims, but I don't think I've seen one from you. Please state in full your class, alignment and win condition.


Hapah, Shakerag: Please tell me your thoughts on my case on NativeForeigner above, and your reads on Imiknorris and Jack.


Finally, to make the claims complete: I am a town Bard, and started with a scroll of hallucination and a scroll of ill will. Darvi used the hallucination scroll on Jack N1, got a scroll of protection questing and used it on Imiknorris N2. I used the scroll of ill will on NativeForeigner last night, hoping to block him as I think he's scum, but I don't know if the block effect was actually triggered (scroll of ill will can block, redirect, poison, or screw with inventory).

If the block was triggered, then that would account for the lack of kill.

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Zathras hefts the corpse-of-webadict puppet and works its mouth: "I declare world peace! Yay! All hail Zathras!"
Everyone is handsomely rewarded, and lives happily ever after.  Except for Bookthras, who dies of poison in the night.

Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #249 on: May 08, 2012, 04:37:26 pm »

Bookthras: I'll give a decent reply later today, no time to analyze your post right now.

I just wanted to see if Native or Jack had claimed actions yet. Put your cards on the table, guys!
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Shakerag

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #250 on: May 08, 2012, 04:58:20 pm »

Hapah, Shakerag: Please tell me your thoughts on my case on NativeForeigner above, and your reads on Imiknorris and Jack.

Actually ... that seems pretty legit to me.  I went back and did a reread myself, and I can't really disagree with what you're saying about NF.  I also noted that when NF switched his vote to Tiruin back on D2 (I think) Tiruin didn't react to that at all ...

I think Jack and UI are both likely town, maybe moreso Jack. 
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Hapah

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #251 on: May 08, 2012, 07:22:06 pm »

Alright, Bookthras, I got a chance to really read your post. I've got a few comments:


As for my reads on Urist and Jack? I don't know if it's just me, but it kinda looks like there's something going on there: Jack's Town ID on Urist N1 (he got randomized, I know. He could have done anything to anyone and claimed Town ID on Urist), Urist's protection of Jack N2 (and saving him from himself, of all things. The hell are the odds on that?)....I don't know. I feel like Urist is town for similar reasons that I think Shakerag is town, but it just feels like I'm missing something.

Let me know if you have any questions Bookthras, and I'll be eagerly waiting for Jack's and NF's actions.
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Urist Imiknorris

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #252 on: May 08, 2012, 09:12:29 pm »

Bookthras: I protected Jack N2 because I thought he was the most likely scum target: Tiruin was obvscum, Shakerag had evidence that his death would confirm, Hapah was new, Native was lurking, and Darvi was being Darvi. As for my read on Jack, I think he's town because he is by no relevant measure stupid, which he'd have to be to risk using a scroll of danger with his scumbuddy on death row. Lastly, if I was a survivor, I'd have claimed D1. I'm still somewhat fuzzy on where the whole "Urist is a survivor" thing came from.

Native, why did your total contributions days 2 and 3 consist of a single question each to Mr. D and Tiruin and a bunch of noncommital "gut feeling" crap? Why haven't you been scumhunting at all? And why the fuck didn't I see that earlier? Also:
Quote
I'm voting you because both you and Imiknorris targeted someone who died. Urist I's save on Jack (not the survivor status that I incorrectly stated earlier) clears him, which leaves you as scum.
How does my protecting Jack N2 clear me?

Hapah: Who are your top two scumpicks?
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Quote from: Jim Groovester
YOU CANT NOT HAVE SUSPECTS IN A GAME OF MAFIA

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If Tiruin redirected the lynch, then this means that, and... the Illuminati! Of course!

Bookthras

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #253 on: May 08, 2012, 09:31:27 pm »

Hapah:
Alright, Bookthras, I got a chance to really read your post. I've got a few comments:
Short version: while many of your comments on NF/UI/Jack have merit, I believe most of the "general-strategy" stuff to be rather misguided. They don't seem to be made in bad faith, so I don't necessarily attach suspicion to them, but I answer them instead for future reference and clarification.

I'll address those first, and then we can review NF/UI/Jack.


I would like to state that I think a no-lynch Day 1, in this particular style of game, is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I lean towards thinking a no-lynch D1 is good for the town. In a vanilla Mafia, information for the town is a very precious commodity: Investigative roles are normally few and far between, and the information gleaned from a mislynch usually outweighs the loss of a townie. Here, though, the rules are a little different: Everyone and their mother has powers. Doctor, Invest, Roleblock, anyone can be any of these things, and will (probably) be at least one of these every night for the majority of the game. [...] I don't think the loss of a probable town power role is worth the small amount of information gained.
Not so. Even in a game like this, or a role-heavy game like a BYOR, paranormal, or bastard, without a D1 lynch people will lack context for the conversation during the day, which is the very point of the day game. The information lost is not just the flip of a person, but who voted them, with what arguments, and forms the very foundation of how the town power roles will choose their night actions. Information is key, and timely information is twice as important. People flipping at the start of D2 is not nearly as useful, and a nolynch will result in people using their powers on whoever they were voting (if block/investigate) or a crapshoot for protections and the like, due to lack of context and closure.

A D1 no-lynch, even in a game like this, pretty much wastes all of D1 content, and gives scum a chance to NK/convert/whatever while town has to shoot in the dark. The amount of information lost is not small, but most importantly, you lose the opportunity to use it. N1 will never come again. Even if you learn the information later, you'll never get that night back, which scum got for free. Not good for town at all.

Also considering the fact that the D1 lynchee is almost always town (when was the last time anyone saw a scum hang D1?),
Not that rare. The very last game I played (Cybrid Mafia 3) we lynched scum D1. A couple games before that (Politibastard) as well, though that was a... different sort of game. I'm sure there are several others.

So sure, it doesn't happen that often, but it certainly does happen. Plus the possibility of a mislynch is built into the balance of the game. If there is going to be one, it's best for town that it happens sooner rather than later, so maximum information is provided early. It's never good, but a D1 no-lynch is worse.


Out-of-character, and outside the context of this game, please disabuse yourself of the notion that a D1 no-lynch is good for town ever. Except in very narrow types of games where constant (not just D1) no-lynch can be used to break the setup (which is not the case here), whenever you think a D1 no-lynch is good because it's cautious, it's misapplied caution, and will hurt town much more than a possible mislynch would.


But back to this game: You may not have known this, or you may disagree, but my point is that Native does know it, has seen this argument numerous times and has agreed with it. It's not about whether a D1 no-lynch is good or bad, it's about showing that Native executed a move that by his own standards as per other games he knows is anti-town.


Now, about his "lynch them both" line, I think he was in the right there (even if I was jumping at shadows before). If Shakerag is assumed town, then one of those two must be guilty. And I don't know about you, but if I've got the probability of scum at around 50/50, not lynching seems like a crime (I'm still surprised Urist or Tiruin didn't get the noose D2). If you lynch the wrong one first, then the other is almost certainly scum (again, assuming that Shakerag is town. I think he is.) In hindsight, his statements all seem reasonable to me, and the fact that he kept his vote on one of the two probable guilty parties instead of moving to MrD is actually a mark in his favor in my book.
Here again, I think you are misguided. The problem is not with the notion that one of those two is scum. The problem is with the notion of setting up the dichotomy, proposing to just lynch one and if it's the wrong one, "oh shucks, let's get the other one". It curtails discussion and scumhunting, and proposes people to be fine with a possible mislynch "because we'll make up for it next day". These sort of arguments are often proposed by scum to perhaps squeeze one more mislynch out of an inevitable bus (which is what I think Native was doing here).

It's good that people didn't follow it and looked for other scumminess elsewhere and found it (MrD, who was a good lynch). It would also have been good if they pressed Tiruin harder and managed to lynch him D2 based on that. It would not, however, have been good if they just "lynch one, and if they flip town, lynch the other". That is at best misguided, and at worse scummy, and town Native would have known better, I think.

As with everything else, it's not so much the argument he made as to why he made it; reading the motivations behind the arguments, and putting the pieces together, he smells very strongly of scum to me.


And I just want to say that any reasoning along these lines seems very dangerous to me. Hell, look at Roguelike 3: There were FOUR scum (2 teams of 2) in a ten-man game. 3 scum and 1 3rd party doesn't seem out of the question to me.
Hmmm... true. I didn't play Roguelike3, so I didn't think of that. I guess the thrust of my point was a general caution that: a) there's more than Tiruin's scumbuddy out there, and b) just because someone can't be Tiruin's scumbuddy it doesn't necessarily mean they are town.


As for my reads on Urist and Jack? I don't know if it's just me, but it kinda looks like there's something going on there: Jack's Town ID on Urist N1 (he got randomized, I know. He could have done anything to anyone and claimed Town ID on Urist), Urist's protection of Jack N2 (and saving him from himself, of all things. The hell are the odds on that?)....I don't know. I feel like Urist is town for similar reasons that I think Shakerag is town, but it just feels like I'm missing something.
I'm with you here. Something seems off, but don't know exactly what. Hopefully once they weigh in and answer a few questions it will become clearer.


Shakerag:
I think Jack and UI are both likely town, maybe moreso Jack.
Why? In detail: why Jack more than Imiknorris? Why "town" rather than "not Tiruin's scumbuddy"?


PPE: Imiknorris: noted. Reply later (busy now).
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No one ever listens to Zathras, no. Quite mad, they say.  |  That ain't a shepherd.

Zathras hefts the corpse-of-webadict puppet and works its mouth: "I declare world peace! Yay! All hail Zathras!"
Everyone is handsomely rewarded, and lives happily ever after.  Except for Bookthras, who dies of poison in the night.

NativeForeigner

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Re: Roguelike Mafia 4 - No Blood in the Night [Day 4]
« Reply #254 on: May 08, 2012, 09:41:02 pm »

Spoiler: Book (click to show/hide)

Imik: See above.

It cleared you from being scum, in my opinion. More accurately, it solidified my decision that, out of the two of you, Tiruin was the one who made the kill.
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Yeah, you're a dick, NativeForeigner.
Quit being such a dick, you dick.
Maybe if you weren't such a dick you wouldn't be such a dick.
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