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Author Topic: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!  (Read 1124732 times)

Helgoland

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19260 on: August 19, 2015, 11:14:06 am »

You would think they learned the lesson. But hey, if west wants to prove again that their tanks have ten gears backwards and one forward (in case the enemy attacks from behind), feel free to. And I don't want to sound too patriotic, but the amount of "Told you so!", "Katyń Kurwa!", "Poland Stronk Rosomak Stronk!" will be proably enough to cause a military reaction in Poland. And, unlike the west, Poland has a history of helping allies enemies of their enemies in need.
Hey, I'm on your side - my criterion for a sufficiently strong German army is that it should be able, together with the Polish army, to at least fight the Russian army to a standstill in a conventional war. I don't like having to rely on the US, and I really, really dislike the prospect of having to rely on a Le Pen-led France.
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19261 on: August 19, 2015, 11:52:46 am »

That is a bit of a silly goal.  The US has developed a bunch of nifty but very expensive high tech applications like the F-22 and AWACS.  Germany has very good "workhorse" weapons like the Leopard and the Typhoon which use proven technology and push the envelope less.  While having the workhorse applications is more important then the wunderwaffen, having the wunderwaffen means your workhorse armory can be smaller and cheaper.  Once you have 50 Raptors backed by a few AWACS as the tip of your spear, 100 Typhoons are probably more effective then 500 would have been in a fair fight.  So if Germany was going for no American reliance at all it would need to either develop it's own wunderwaffen or have a much, much larger arsenal of it's Typhoon and Leopard style weapons.

There is definitely an argument to be made that the US wastes money on it's high tech gadgets and should pursue a strategy more in line with what Germany is doing.  But given that the US has pursued this strategy and will continue to do so in the future, Germany might as well make use of it.
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Baffler

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19262 on: August 19, 2015, 11:59:23 am »

Hey, I'm on your side - my criterion for a sufficiently strong German army is that it should be able, together with the Polish army, to at least fight the Russian army to a standstill in a conventional war. I don't like having to rely on the US, and I really, really dislike the prospect of having to rely on a Le Pen-led France.

It seems like every new thing I hear about Le Pen makes her and FN even more concerning than before.
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Kot

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19263 on: August 19, 2015, 12:13:24 pm »

Hey, I'm on your side - my criterion for a sufficiently strong German army is that it should be able, together with the Polish army, to at least fight the Russian army to a standstill in a conventional war. I don't like having to rely on the US, and I really, really dislike the prospect of having to rely on a Le Pen-led France.
That's actually possible, as long as they don't go full "война народная" and throw the whole army with reserves (fucking T-34s). In that case, they would simply trample everything with sheer numbers.

Also, concerning USA wunderwaffes...
F-35.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19264 on: August 19, 2015, 12:31:27 pm »

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.
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Kot

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19265 on: August 19, 2015, 12:45:02 pm »

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.
The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19266 on: August 19, 2015, 12:58:05 pm »

F-35.

F-22.

The point isn't that the money is spent efficiently.  The point is that so much money is spent that a few good weapons result despite the inefficiency.  Germany on the other hand spends it's money much more efficiently by being much less ambitious.

The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.

Reserves would be useless in a showdown between modern forces.  What would Russian forces do if French and German helicopters made it impossible for them to operate supply lines of trucks?  Walk their supplies in on backpacks?
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Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM
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Culise

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19267 on: August 19, 2015, 01:11:43 pm »

I'd be astonished if a Russian invasion made it past Lithuania, much less all the way to Spain in an "early success," even if they had the advantage of complete and utter surprise.  Let's see, now, the Russian Armed Forces seem to have less than 500k personnel, including conscripts but presumably excluding mobilized reserves (mostly an assumption I make because that IISS number feels ridiculously low).  The Polish alone can match that if they mobilize their reservists, and you can bet that if Russia mobilizes, Poland will take a serious look at doing the same; there's just no other alternative than NATO for a Russian invasion that requires mobilization.  NATO as a whole, just their forces in Europe, has, if I recall properly (and I easily may not; this was basically from a discussion on the matter back when the Crimea was just heating up) something like 6:1 advantage in numbers over Russia.  I won't go so far as to say that reservists are useless, but saying that Russia will essentially be able to steam-roller from Narva to Gibraltar in the opening days of the war is a stunning leap of faith. 

No, any Russia-NATO conflict will be a border one, very probably without general mobilizations and conducted using available conventional forces.  Neither side will push too hard for fear of turning it nuclear.  You won't have Russian troops dining on the banks of the Seine, and by the same token, American forces won't be delivering freedom at barrelpoint in Moscow.  :P
« Last Edit: August 19, 2015, 01:14:18 pm by Culise »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19268 on: August 19, 2015, 01:14:03 pm »

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.
The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.
It is armchair general territory but....

Why do you think that they have enough battle ready weapon systems and soldiers to use them? Those wikipedia figures of Russia having many soldiers, tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft tell nothing about their real readiness level.

I am afraid that Russia will use nukes. I am not afraid that Russia will win a full scale conventional war against a country that has an actual army.
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Kot

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19269 on: August 19, 2015, 01:20:55 pm »

Reserves would be useless in a showdown between modern forces.  What would Russian forces do if French and German helicopters made it impossible for them to operate supply lines of trucks?  Walk their supplies in on backpacks?
Basically, the idea would be to defend the supply lines with real army, and send the reserves forward, in Soviet style. I'm conviced that if you used enough T-34s and other old shit, NATO forces in the area would simply not have enough dakka to defend the whole "frontline", and all those "outdated reserve shits" would still wreak havoc behind the actual army, they're still pretty killy. And if the allied go back to fight them, they have to give ground to regular Russian army.
Also, you're implying that French would be attacking supply lines instead of watching the battle, quickly shrinking in their rear mirrors?
It is armchair general territory but....

Why do you think that they have enough battle ready weapon systems and soldiers to use them? Those wikipedia figures of Russia having many soldiers, tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft tell nothing about their real readiness level.
Because, contrary to NATO equipment, you can take a WW2 Russian tank and get it running with little maintenance.
F-35.

F-22.
You do realize that instead of spending money on F-22, they decided to spend it on F-35 (they considered adding an ability to carry infantry in it, what)?
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smjjames

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19270 on: August 19, 2015, 01:27:35 pm »

You're forgetting the US military here, while it would take a bit to mobilize ground troops, you've seen how fast we mobilize the airforce. So, Russia would really only have until we get things rolling.

I could see NK using the distraction to attack SK or something though.

And yeah, this is deep into Armchair General General territory.
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Culise

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19271 on: August 19, 2015, 01:38:30 pm »

You're forgetting the US military here, while it would take a bit to mobilize ground troops, you've seen how fast we mobilize the airforce. So, Russia would really only have until we get things rolling.

I could see NK using the distraction to attack SK or something though.

And yeah, this is deep into Armchair General General territory.
Well, I suppose if Russia's committing national suicide in this hypothetical, the DPRK can't allow themselves to be out-crazied. :P Just as a heads-up, though, the DPRK are actually outnumbered by the ROK nowadays, and they're much more focused on the static defense due to their strategic priorities.  In a one on one fight, the ROK wins, though Seoul also loses.

But now, we're talking about a hypothetical in which the Russians are pulling out WW2 tanks (that is, not even T-55s, which are still on reserve status, but stuff like the IS-series and the T-34) out of storage (where? I don't even think the Russian government maintains official stores) and putting them on a modern battlefield in the hands of people who have never trained on anything older than the T-55, where the regular army is being held back and reservists are being used as the main thrust of the invasion, where logistics are completely irrelevant (because of said regular army protecting the ever-loving daylights out of them), where the French and Germans are both actively refusing to fight because reasons, all to facilitate an outcome where the Russians will be in Spain before America gets its boots on.  I...I'm not going to say what I think, except that I think we've left even Armchair General Station in the dust.  I'm just going to step out now. 
« Last Edit: August 19, 2015, 01:43:42 pm by Culise »
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Erkki

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19272 on: August 19, 2015, 01:40:37 pm »

Russia would very likely have enough trouble against a (unfortunately for now still theoretical) alliance of Finland and Sweden in an offensive war. War isnt just about numbers against numbers with some kind of qualitative factors...

I'm still more worried about Putin mostly in what kind of general economical and stability consequences within Europe he and his buddies may manage to create in addition to the whole Ukraine affair.

When it comes to expanding Russian/Putin's powerbase, the easiest targets are likely in Asia.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2015, 01:42:20 pm by Erkki »
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mainiac

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19273 on: August 19, 2015, 01:46:05 pm »

You do realize that instead of spending money on F-22, they decided to spend it on F-35 (they considered adding an ability to carry infantry in it, what)?

And once again you miss my point.  There are more F-22 in existance then any other 5th generation for a long time.
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Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Sheb's European Megathread: Remove Feta!
« Reply #19274 on: August 19, 2015, 01:56:02 pm »

Back to the real world

Barrel of Brent oil = $47
Barrel of WTI oil = $41

What the hell is happening with oil prices?
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War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.
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