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[Madman198237]

-snip-
Won't be defective in a couple more years. We have to start accepting the reality that pretty soon North Korea will have the ability to wipe a decent chunk of people off the face of the earth.
-snip-

No, no we don't. NK won't be able to wipe a significant chunk of anything off the face of the planet for quite a while. It takes a lot of effort to make weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, effort that NK can't afford to do massive things with. They ALSO still don't have a truly respectable fusion-weapon development program, and their weaponry is probably not even MIRV yet seeing as how they are sucking in the miniaturization department. In short, everything they can do, we can shoot down and do a million times better, all at the same time. It literally doesn't matter how rogue, insane, and suicidal they are, we can shoot down every nuclear missile they're likely to be capable of launching any time in the next twenty years, all without the defensive networks breaking much of a sweat.

Not to mention they STILL won't be able to deal with the consequences of starting a nuclear war while sitting on China's doorstep (And Russia, but Russia's "doorstep" in Siberia is more of the forgotten back door that leads into a walled-off old stairway that hasn't been used in years). But of course, the "fear them" approach presumes that MAD doesn't work, even when the only assured destruction is on Korea's side.

[smjjames]

-snip-
Won't be defective in a couple more years. We have to start accepting the reality that pretty soon North Korea will have the ability to wipe a decent chunk of people off the face of the earth.
-snip-

No, no we don't. NK won't be able to wipe a significant chunk of anything off the face of the planet for quite a while. It takes a lot of effort to make weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, effort that NK can't afford to do massive things with. They ALSO still don't have a truly respectable fusion-weapon development program, and their weaponry is probably not even MIRV yet seeing as how they are sucking in the miniaturization department. In short, everything they can do, we can shoot down and do a million times better, all at the same time. It literally doesn't matter how rogue, insane, and suicidal they are, we can shoot down every nuclear missile they're likely to be capable of launching any time in the next twenty years, all without the defensive networks breaking much of a sweat.

Not to mention they STILL won't be able to deal with the consequences of starting a nuclear war while sitting on China's doorstep (And Russia, but Russia's "doorstep" in Siberia is more of the forgotten back door that leads into a walled-off old stairway that hasn't been used in years). But of course, the "fear them" approach presumes that MAD doesn't work, even when the only assured destruction is on Korea's side.

I don't think any country would find it remotely easy to deal with starting a nuclear war, given that nobody has experienced it, for one. Even if it's something regional like Pakistan-India.

[Reelya]

North Korea's tech isn't very reliable. In 2016 for example they launched 24 missiles, but 10 of those failed, a 41% failure rate. As of the date of that chart, 2017 had seen 8 tests, with 3 failures, so a 37.5% failure rate.

So they seem to consistently only get around 60% of launched rockets to leave the ground. If they did manage to nuclear-tip those missiles, 40% of them have a possibility of blowing up in North Korea, and the other 60% have to still get to where you are and properly detonate, which is a capacity that North Korea hasn't demonstrated. A single aimed launch would make their threat much more credible, but they seem to hand-wave exactly where their test rockets land. They're clearly not able to tell you where the rockets they fire will land within a tolerable error margin, or they'd make a point of highlighting accuracy.

[wierd]

Technically, it would just contaminate the launchpad, and little more.  A nuclear detonation is more than just "Chemicals react to make a big boom", it is "Focused neutron emissions stimulate rapid and uncontainable fission reaction."  In really old uranium style bombs, this is done with a ball of plutonium being shot into a cavity made of uranium.  In fusion style bombs, it is .... a bit more complicated.

It is suspected, based on seismic data and background radiation levels from their latest series of tests, that they have achieved some level of fusion bomb technology. Due to the increased requirements to detonate a fusion based hydrogen bomb, a malfunctioning launch system going KABOOM is just going to burn the deuterium fuel like it was normal hydrogen.

[Starver]

In really old uranium style bombs, this is done with a ball of plutonium being shot into a cavity made of uranium.

Trinity Test's "The Gadget", and Nagasaki's "Fat Man", was a plutonium implosion device. ²³⁸U (depleted Uranium, itself not fissonable) was used to surround the plutonium core as a neutron-reflector to help the compressed Pu ball cross the boundary of Criticality.

That's different from Little Boy which is Uranium-on-Uranium with ²³⁵U (enriched, highly fissionable) and which was actually shooting a cavity over a plug, for pretty interesting and logical reasons that I won't try to ineptly explain right now.

Obviously, they have messed with all kinds of configurations over time (and "Thin Man" was an initial attempt at a Pu-based mass-and-hole-bringer-together, but was shown not to be viable for various reasons), but the oldest of "really old" nuclear bombs, uranium or otherwise, aren't really that kind of mixed-fissile material.

[martinuzz]

After a meeting between Kim Jong-Un and South Korean security advisor Chung Eui-yong, it appears that North Korea is willing to engage in open talks with the US administration about abolishing it's nuclear weapons. According to the South Korean security advisor, Kim Young One said that in the future it will be no longer nescessary for North Korea to posess nuclear weapons, if the US adminstration can guarantuee the security of his regime.
Kim Jong-Un said, when he met with the South Korean delegation yesterday, that he 'wants to write history considering the relationship with Seoul'.
He will also meet with the South Korean leader Moon Jae-in. It will be the first meeting between the two country's leaders in ten years.

North Korea has not confirmed this yet, and the White House has not commented yet either.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/zuid-korea-noord-korea-bereid-te-praten-met-vs-over-verwijderen-kernwapens~a4578258/
https://youtu.be/IGP7fd50yLg

[wierd]

*Hilarity ensues if North Korea becomes a US state, thus obligating the US to devote resources to its defense.

[martinuzz]

I'm sure China would be terribly pleased with that 

[smjjames]

The WH hasn't made an official official statement, but Trump has commented on it.

As far as 'guaranteeing the security of the regieme', I wonder how much NK actually has to fear from China. The historical relationship between China and Korea has been more or less a vassal state type relationship.

[smjjames]

Theres going to be a major announcement on NK at about 7 PM EST (notably, that's 8 AM local for Korea) and it's something that SK is makiing. Whatever it is, Trump is extremely excited about it, so excited he personally went to the media briefing room and told the reporters there.

[martinuzz]

I think it will be "major announcement: the US will lift sanctions for aluminum and steel trade with NK, so we can has tariffs"

[martinuzz]

NK wrote an official invitation to Trump, to meet with Kim Jong-Un, and talk about reducing North Korea's nuclear arsenal.
Immediatly after being handed the invitation, Trump accepted to meet with Kim, coming may.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I feel like some 18 year old housesitter who's parents are coming back half a week early unannounced.

[smjjames]

I didn't hear about 'immediately', but yes he's agreed. Doing it by May seems awfully fast, the people on CNN keep mentioning that theres usually several months of planning and stairstep preparation.

I suppose it's possible that 'by May' was just a suggested timeline and is not set in stone.

I feel like some 18 year old housesitter who's parents are coming back half a week early unannounced.

I get what you're saying about it being a surprise, but that's downplaying the historicness of it.

This seems like exactly the kind of situation where you'd want your State Department to be fully staffed, not halfway to skeleton crew.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I was actually talking about the thread.