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Author Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over!  (Read 159874 times)

Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #480 on: November 14, 2013, 08:19:55 pm »


  As you debate, the guard captain comes in.
 
  "We investigated Nerjin and Cmega3's houses last night. Nerjin we found dead in his room, a long slash going down his entire back the obvious cause of death. Of Cmega3 there was no sign, although his door was unlocked."


Meph:

As we debate, is it possible to ask for the guards to search around all of our houses/in them for Cmega's body?  If Cmega didn't die at home, he died somewhere else, if his body's not at his home it may be in or around another player's home.  I'd love to know if that body's close to someone's house and what condition it is in if that is a reasonable request.  (if it's not - hey, we all know Imp loves to go out on limbs in this game).

You have been given all the information that will be given.
<3 Imp.
But this isn't like Web's other Mafias or Vector's Flavor-style mafias. I don't think we can interact with the environment--meaning whoever did in Cmega really took him out.

..Or I'm missing something. Regardless, if the Hunter attacked-it is mostly Nerjin judging by the wound and the knowledge of a sword given multiple accounts leaning on this.

WHICH LEADS ME TO THE FIRST NOTE, which tries to debunk these conclusions via simplest notion.



I need thoughts on this matter.

1. Should we massclaim?
> NQT has claimed Priest.
> Caz is a scum (or..cult-cult) priest.
> Imp claimed Mystic - Fortune Teller [...I have no idea*]
> Max claimed Mystic - Seer [Benevolent/Malevolent]
Leaving 4 dudes left in play. Now guessing that we've a cult (unsure if its the flavor-type cult, who only is cult in flavor, or a REAL cult. Because if then..then it's my first time playing with such a game.)
* - Given how Imp did in Caz the first night--and what she got from it, I'm really really wondering how she didn't get a scum inspect from the details [May be a Role-Inspector instead(?)]. Checking here.
Prior evidence regarding Persus' alignment has been revealed. If malevolent = scum, and by thorough doubt it equals that he is most likely scum in this case (trueclaiming, perhaps? A trueclaim on knight would equal a HUGE pull. OR, scum--in his category--may have hit a wizard protected player, or a whatever protected player but NOT a town knight.)
Contrast the defendant. In that scenario-if Persus is town, then there's no way he can die-simplest idea. However the defendant is lacking in making a defense, seemingly countering at the moment but not creating a defense against the accusation.

The factor in these situations is:
1. Who was the one who attacked Persus? If it was a Hunter, then I'd love for him to claim now-and why he attacked either Cmega or Nerjin--if Cmega, why displace him from his house? That's unconventional, unless said hunter is our unconventional role.
If the hunter will claim-why did you not claim earlier?

2. Either Max or Persus is lying. There can be no distinction from it (ie I can't really see a bus here, unless its for townie points and/or someone's really fakeclaiming).
Max: IF Persus flips town, and town Knight to be exact, what're you going to do, and how will you rationalize the previous scenario pre-flip?
Persus: IF Max flips town, and town Mystic to be exact, what're you going to do, and how will you rationalize the previous scenario pre-flip?
3. If the sword-hunter is true, then Persus was attacked by him, and thus being a KNight is a trueclaim. Thus, it is right to assume that if their kill has been blocked (via Guard) or protected against..err, well I've to point back to the query in #1. Massclaim time?

Persus what'll you do if Max flips seer? Thinking about it a bit more there's not really a good reason for him to sacrifice himself over this, so... do you want to come clean? If your goals don't contradict town's there's no particular reason to lynch you when there are stronger targets.
I'll come clean, here I'll confess my role and team:
I am a Knight, sworn to protect town, and willing to die to protect town.
I don't care if Max flips seer, if he flips scum or not is what I care about. And I don't think there is a concievable reason why Town Max would fakeclaim to kill me.
One word: Illusionist.
Either the scumteam has an illusionist and Max got his fishies in a flopping box which was redirected upon scrying or he really targeted you.

Max: Paraphrase that N2. Same with your N1 account.

Persus
You are right, tonight chances are unless we get a lucky redirect or have a protect, and I sure hope we do, then I die, but that doesn't mean just lynching me is the best way to test that claim. There is still the chance to survive the night and come back with another inspect.
If you lynch me today then the town spends two days lynching for us both, while lynching Persus results in one lynch for us both either way.
This makes 0 sense.
It makes sense given that there's a sure inspector.

Quote
Okay, that was a really dumb slip-up. The correct term is aura. Aurora refers to Aurora Borealis or the Northern Lights. Now, I don't know about you, but when I gave details on my Role PM I had it open in a separate tab and was reading it thoroughly to make sure I didn't miss anything from the flavor. THis makes it sound like you didn't do that. Maybe because you didn't get a PM?
Not to be defending Max here, but seeing how it was worded..it looks more like an 'I'm pulling this out of memory-slip' rather than a slip-up. Aura/Aurora is a pretty nice slip up, if given the case, but an improbable one to be a slip-up. My two cents, given how such things mostly get confused.
Persus what'll you do if Max flips seer? Thinking about it a bit more there's not really a good reason for him to sacrifice himself over this, so... do you want to come clean? If your goals don't contradict town's there's no particular reason to lynch you when there are stronger targets.
I'll come clean, here I'll confess my role and team:
I am a Knight, sworn to protect town, and willing to die to protect town.
I don't care if Max flips seer, if he flips scum or not is what I care about. And I don't think there is a concievable reason why Town Max would fakeclaim to kill me.
This does not answer the question on what'll you do. It sounds more like someone diverting the reasoning and standing upon his claim earlier-while, though true for whatever reason there may be--is clouded by the accusation that is leveled against you. I do believe you'd remember that? You don't even give that kind of idea when being attacked, just shooting back and returning fire at Max.

I mean, obviously if you were attacked the superficial reason is to counter with 'NO U LIE', but then where's the depth of it?
Quote
Survivor seems more reflective of scum to me. Scum want to survive to the end of the game and be the only ones remaining.
*looks at Caz*
Explain the difference. You're narrowing quite a lot in favor of your point given Imp's craftiness. Plus, Town want to survive, sir. That's pretty much a point there, though I wonder why a Mystic isn't a Watcher.

Imp: Why did you claim, given your results?
Quote
S5 had... no Seer inspect N1 (Why!) and a Town priest inspect N2 (benign).  N3 is interesting!  Inspect on an (other) Wererat - he came out benign.
...Can someone check if a were-anything can do kills, or just acts like a one-shot PGO which kills an attacker and dies with him? (Remembering Irony~)
*checks OP*
Also I'm pretty sure being a Town Witch instead of a Lone Witch (who was an angel) is a notable difference.

Toony: ...Brevity ahoy?
Judging by rank and contradiction - Toaster comes off squeaky despite the notion of continuous psychology? Meaning: Your knowledge on him affecting your idea of him, now? The bus-thing.
Quote
Max White - two cases against him, unless he can explain himself I don't mind seeing him lynched
And where do you stand? Eager to just sit by and let people rationalize it away? Pretty intriguing.



...Let me try!

Meph//Guard Captain: State of the lock of the door of Cmega's house? Broken? Picked?
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #481 on: November 14, 2013, 09:19:28 pm »

Tiruin:

> NQT has claimed Priest.
> Caz is a scum (or..cult-cult) priest.
> Imp claimed Mystic - Fortune Teller [...I have no idea*]
> Max claimed Mystic - Seer [Benevolent/Malevolent]

And Persus13 has claimed Knight.

However

1. Should we massclaim?

I say no.  I strongly believe that at least two Scum have already claimed - Max White and notquitethere.  There may be a fourth Scum floating around, but at this point I don't think that revealing the three other roles would be more helpful to Town then it is to Scum.

That said - nothing stopping the rest of you.  I've already claimed - unwillingness to do is -not- a reason why I say DON'T unless you think you have a VERY GOOD REASON to do so now.

Someone or something besides the Scum has a night kill - that's been proven by the two N2 kills, yes?  That someone or something will be forced to claim or false claim if we mass claim.  I assume the Scum would rather kill a competitive night killer than anything else.

* - Given how Imp did in Caz the first night--and what she got from it, I'm really really wondering how she didn't get a scum inspect from the details [May be a Role-Inspector instead(?)]. Checking here.

Fortune tellers do not get results of Scum or Town.  They get results of role, not alignment.  Check this post for more details, but in summary - even when a fortune teller inspected the Vampire Lord one game - the result was 'changer' - a result which has also been seen for the third party Devil, the Town exorcist, and (unconfirmed until game ends and PMs are posted) the Scum Priest.

So I did not know if Caz was Scum or Town - or even if he was a -priest- instead of any other sort of changer.  Only that he was a Changer - and not even exactly what that means.

Persus: IF Max flips town, and town Mystic to be exact, what're you going to do, and how will you rationalize the previous scenario pre-flip?
Note that no one has ever flipped 'Mystic' - they have flipped Seer, Fortune Teller, or whatever they specifically were.

I wonder why a Mystic isn't a Watcher.

Only one Mystic type has ever been checked by a Fortune Teller previous to this game - happened in S3, N1 inspection.  Happened to -be- a Seer that was inspected by a Fortune Teller - Max White is claiming to be a Seer in this game.  The result of a Fortune teller inspection of a Seer in S3 resulted in Watcher.  My inspection of Max White (who later claimed Seer) resulted in Survivor.  Thus I believe that Max White is NOT a Seer and his claim is a lie - also that both results he has claimed are also lies - he has stated results for both Persus13(malevolent) and also for notquitethere(benign).

Imp: Why did you claim, given your results?

I explained that in the post where I claimed.  If you want more details or if something doesn't make sense please ask more specific questions.

Also I'm pretty sure being a Town Witch instead of a Lone Witch (who was an angel) is a notable difference.

You misunderstand this:

Archangel (town)
 You are a Lone Witch, the last practitioner of an ancient religion. Though you are not evil, you are forced to practice your arts in secret. But despite their superstitious distrust, you will still fight to save the town.

 Once per game you can go to someone’s house and place a Watchful Ward upon then. This Ward will tell you who visits that house and if the owner leaves (and returns), though not where they go. The Ward will persist for the entire game.

 Once the ward is placed, you can scry them without leaving your house.

Archangel (town) = Playername (town)

Archangel was the NAME of the player with this role in this game.  Please check Meph's post that I have quoted it from to confirm the style with other player's roles - this is inside the role PM spoiler.  This player had a ROLE of LONE WITCH - and it was a Town role.  The angel you are thinking of is the Guardian Angel - who was the protector of a coven witch in a different Supernatural game, yes.

...Can someone check if a were-anything can do kills, or just acts like a one-shot PGO which kills an attacker and dies with him? (Remembering Irony~)

We've seen 3 flavors of were-anything.

Werewolves have so far always been Scum - they had a kill.  No werewolf has ever been investigated by a Fortune Teller yet.

Werebears have so far only been Town - and only seen once so far.  A Fortune Teller investigated a Werebear and got the result Killer (that werebear was a PGO, but had no other kill).

Wererats have so far always been Survivors - we have only seen two so far.  The first was from S3 and it had no actions and only the goal to survive.  The second was in S5 and it also had a Survivor wincon and no actions.  Both wererats actually did survive to game end - and no wererat has ever been investigated by any investigative role.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #482 on: November 14, 2013, 09:26:09 pm »

Nice to see that my analysis was vindicated— I said Caz was scum and he was.

And you were so right your vote ended up on him at the end of the day.

Oh, wait.

neener neener neener

Cmega might have been a Lone Witch, but more likely he has a covenbuddy who may or may not be scum. Anyone want to come forward? My bet, from the vote record, is it's Imp or Jim.

Coven Witches begin the game as masons.

Is it correct to assume there's three scum?

From 9p to 11p there are typically two scum, and then once it gets to 12p it gets bumped up to three

With a vig, two scum seems too low so we could be dealing with three scum. There's no way to know for sure until they are all eliminated, or Meph clues us in.

Meph, how many members did the scum team start with?

I'm goading the potential scum-Jim into making more weak cases to reveal his inherent scuminess. You going to bite?

Gosh you are just the worst at baiting people.

Thought part of me wants to vote you for inviting me to.

Persus or Max? Who do you find more plausible at this stage?

Max White, because of Imp's claim. Apparently Fortune Tellers inspect Seers and get Watcher results. There's a discrepancy here and it's two to one against Max White.

Guess who the two people who tried to downplay my findings D2 were. They were Caz and Jim.

So you suspect me because I said that a Monster Hunter attacked you instead of Cultists, when, in fact, a Monster Hunter did attack you instead of Cultists.

I don't follow.

Toony— it's not impossible that Max is town and Persus is third-party, but that doesn't strike me as likely from the vote patterns. When you've got time so proper input on this would be good.
Unless Max can explain himself with Imp's claim now I think it's Max that's lying.  He has two claims against his one.  That would be probably the entire scum team outing themselves if that were true.

So vote Max White for now.

This is true that there's role discrepancy, but it's not immediately apparent unless you think a Survivor result doesn't fit with a Seer claim, or you already knew that Seers inspect as Watchers, before Imp dug up the flavor for it.

Your vote here seems kind of hasty.

I spent a LOT of time wondering this, because in past games the flavor of results have often been tuned towards the alignment of the target.  Harmless often looks harmless, malevolent often looks malevolent.  Those nature symbols look pretty peaceful to me - unless we have some sort of evil nature religion.

You need to learn what is and what is not relevant flavor in Meph games.

If it's in the opening post of the day, it's probably relevant. If it's in your PM, it's probably just for fun. I.E., only the role result matters.

Watcher- Seer (confirmed S3, N1 inspection, nativeforeigner checked JanusTwoface), Sexton (confirmed S4, N4 inspection, Max White checked Azure/replacement of jakeread1)

Interesting.

Imp claims Survivor result on Max White, Max White claims Seer, which Fortune Tellers inspect as Watcher, unless things have changed since Supernatural 3.

1. Should we massclaim?

No, not while there's still a question about who the Monster Hunter is.

Whoever he is, he's choosing targets reasonably, so we should try to make sure his identity is hidden for as long as possible.

Anyways, Max White, explain why you inspected Survivor when you should have inspected as Watcher if your claim is to be believed.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #483 on: November 14, 2013, 09:26:33 pm »

Toony: ...Brevity ahoy?
Judging by rank and contradiction - Toaster comes off squeaky despite the notion of continuous psychology? Meaning: Your knowledge on him affecting your idea of him, now? The bus-thing.
That's a comparative list which could be misleading.  Toaster isn't "squeaky clean" as much as "not as scummy as other people".  The area from Tiruin to Imp I would label as the most vague too.

Also yes, Toaster has totally bussed his partners and has admitted it before.

Quote
Max White - two cases against him, unless he can explain himself I don't mind seeing him lynched
And where do you stand? Eager to just sit by and let people rationalize it away? Pretty intriguing.
Where do I stand?  I want to see Max explain himself.  I can't make up answers for him.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #484 on: November 14, 2013, 09:29:07 pm »

@Jim:
I made that post under the impression seers wouldn't come up as survivors, yes.

@Tiruin:
No mass-claiming is a bad idea.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #485 on: November 14, 2013, 10:28:52 pm »

All: At the moment me vs. Max is basically my word against Max, plus whatever you think about Imp's role claim. I ask you, to go through me and Max's posts from this game and decide which one of us is scummier, and make your decision that way. I have no evidence or arguments against Max except what I have already spoken and my desire to help town no matter what.

Tiruin:
1. Should we massclaim?
Don't. Monster Hunter needs to stick around.

1. Who was the one who attacked Persus? If it was a Hunter, then I'd love for him to claim now-and why he attacked either Cmega or Nerjin--if Cmega, why displace him from his house? That's unconventional, unless said hunter is our unconventional role.
If the hunter will claim-why did you not claim earlier?
I'm pretty sure it is the hunter given the difference in flavor from S2.

Persus: IF Max flips town, and town Mystic to be exact, what're you going to do, and how will you rationalize the previous scenario pre-flip?
In that case I'd try and lay out a case on who I think is scum and why so that after my almost inevitable lynch I would still have something to contribute.

3. If the sword-hunter is true, then Persus was attacked by him, and thus being a Knight is a trueclaim. Thus, it is right to assume that if their kill has been blocked (via Guard) or protected against..err, well I've to point back to the query in #1. Massclaim time?
Monster Hunter: Please don't claim, you're more valuable alive to town then I am.

Persus what'll you do if Max flips seer? Thinking about it a bit more there's not really a good reason for him to sacrifice himself over this, so... do you want to come clean? If your goals don't contradict town's there's no particular reason to lynch you when there are stronger targets.
I'll come clean, here I'll confess my role and team:
I am a Knight, sworn to protect town, and willing to die to protect town.
I don't care if Max flips seer, if he flips scum or not is what I care about. And I don't think there is a concievable reason why Town Max would fakeclaim to kill me.
One word: Illusionist.
Either the scumteam has an illusionist and Max got his fishies in a flopping box which was redirected upon scrying or he really targeted you.
Except when people get targeted by an Illusionist they are aware that that happened. Have you read any previous Supernatural games?

Persus
You are right, tonight chances are unless we get a lucky redirect or have a protect, and I sure hope we do, then I die, but that doesn't mean just lynching me is the best way to test that claim. There is still the chance to survive the night and come back with another inspect.
If you lynch me today then the town spends two days lynching for us both, while lynching Persus results in one lynch for us both either way.
This makes 0 sense.
It makes sense given that there's a sure inspector.
It was more about the second paragraph. Max seems to be saying we both get lynched the next two days.

Quote
Okay, that was a really dumb slip-up. The correct term is aura. Aurora refers to Aurora Borealis or the Northern Lights. Now, I don't know about you, but when I gave details on my Role PM I had it open in a separate tab and was reading it thoroughly to make sure I didn't miss anything from the flavor. THis makes it sound like you didn't do that. Maybe because you didn't get a PM?
Not to be defending Max here, but seeing how it was worded..it looks more like an 'I'm pulling this out of memory-slip' rather than a slip-up. Aura/Aurora is a pretty nice slip up, if given the case, but an improbable one to be a slip-up. My two cents, given how such things mostly get confused.
Yeah, I think that's a sloppy method as he could slip-up in worse ways.

Persus what'll you do if Max flips seer? Thinking about it a bit more there's not really a good reason for him to sacrifice himself over this, so... do you want to come clean? If your goals don't contradict town's there's no particular reason to lynch you when there are stronger targets.
I'll come clean, here I'll confess my role and team:
I am a Knight, sworn to protect town, and willing to die to protect town.
I don't care if Max flips seer, if he flips scum or not is what I care about. And I don't think there is a concievable reason why Town Max would fakeclaim to kill me.
This does not answer the question on what'll you do. It sounds more like someone diverting the reasoning and standing upon his claim earlier-while, though true for whatever reason there may be--is clouded by the accusation that is leveled against you. I do believe you'd remember that? You don't even give that kind of idea when being attacked, just shooting back and returning fire at Max.
I was poking fun at NQT's wanna come clean question. Was he really expecting me to answer it?

Quote
Survivor seems more reflective of scum to me. Scum want to survive to the end of the game and be the only ones remaining.
*looks at Caz*
Explain the difference. You're narrowing quite a lot in favor of your point given Imp's craftiness. Plus, Town want to survive, sir. That's pretty much a point there, though I wonder why a Mystic isn't a Watcher.
That's why I consider Fortune Teller a fairly useless role, as the information it gives is extremely general and not as useful as other roles.

Jim:
Guess who the two people who tried to downplay my findings D2 were. They were Caz and Jim.

So you suspect me because I said that a Monster Hunter attacked you instead of Cultists, when, in fact, a Monster Hunter did attack you instead of Cultists.

I don't follow.
Sorry, I thought you were scum earlier because I wasn't aware of the kill flavor of last night and I got overconfident after we lynched scum. I doubt you are scum, and I think that the last scum is still out there.[/quote]

Imp:
I'm sorry, but why are you so confident that NQT is scum? Nerjin flipped town again, and of the main two attackers of NQT, one turned out to be scum and the other was Max?
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Max White

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #486 on: November 15, 2013, 02:16:53 am »

Most likely town? Now when did I say that?
You said you'd inspected me and I came up good, so that makes me most likely town given your reported uncertainty over the possibility of conversions.
[/quote]
Ah, you were talking about yourself yesterday, I thought you meant Persus today.
I thought we had a vampire flavored cult back then, and that put you on the same footing as far as being town as everybody else because you could have been converted. That is why when you started doing scummy things I assumed so.

Regardless of if you thought it was scummy or not, I sure did.

Why the change?

Also, I'm not seeing much suspicion of Persus D2.  While why you wouldn't investigate NQT again is pretty obvious, why Persus?
See above.

In regards to why inspect Persus, Caz flipped mafia type scum and that kind of made me wonder about his claim of being attacked by somebody with monster hunter flavor. On reread he insisted a lot that it was most likely the mafia when that doesn't exactly seem to be true, so I wanted to confirm for sure if he was trustworthy. It was more about the mechanics revealed by Cazs death than his actions.

I got the result of survivor for him, with the symbols Cup, Bread, and Cloth.  My character did not lean back and ponder this - this one was simple to her. These are simple things, Max White (refered to as a he in my PM) must be a survivor.
Now this is interesting. I can see two possibilities, either your lying for some reason (Poor scum play or a third party that needs me dead) or the inspect was disrupted somehow.
Given that Meph said that there was a role that he accidentally let in that hadn't been seen before, you might be a lyncher and this the chance you have been waiting for. I'm not going to say for sure but it is possible. The other possibility is that there is a role that changes the outcomes of inspects and either the target (Myself) or the inspector (you) got hit with it last night.

Still, both these possibilities depend on the unknown new role...
Meph: Does the previously unseen role have to be on the front page, being something that could have been in past games, or is it possible it is totally unseen?



Anyway, the mechanics here remain pretty simple, you just have to go other the possibilities:
If you lynch Persus and he is scum
-Well done, you lynched scum, one left.
If you lynch Persus and he is not scum
-You can conclude I was lying and therefor scum
-I get killed tonight by a sword wielding monster hunter
-The scum get one kill before business as normal
Either way a scum player is dead before day 4.

If you lynch me and I'm scum
-Well done, you lynched scum, one left.
If you lynch me and I'm not scum
-You just lynched the cop
-You can conclude I was correct and therefor Persus is scum
-The monster hunter can't kill a knight and you have to wait until tomorrow to lynch him
-The scum get today and tomorrows kills before business as normal, essentially costing you a townie you didn't need to loose

You are running a risk you don't have to take. If I'm scum, how am I going to live either way? Better to test the claim without killing me during the day for the possibility that I'm right. If you lynch Persus, you have a lot more to gain than loose.

Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #487 on: November 15, 2013, 03:09:18 am »

I'm putting together my post about why I'm so concerned that notquitethere is Scum, but I noticed the new reply.

Having read it, I've got one question to ask about it immediately.

Quote
-Well done, you lynched scum, one left.

We have a pending question to the mod, with a theory that with 11 players there are either two or three Scum.

Max White - Why are you so sure that there are two Scum?

Why are you so sure that the other kill is a monster hunter, and that the other killer is on Town's side?

We have no proof that the sword-wielding killer is anti-Town - but we also have no proof that the sword wielder is Town either, do we?

Quote
I can see two possibilities, either your lying for some reason (Poor scum play or a third party that needs me dead) or the inspect was disrupted somehow.

Given that Meph said that there was a role that he accidentally let in that hadn't been seen before, you might be a lyncher and this the chance you have been waiting for. I'm not going to say for sure but it is possible. The other possibility is that there is a role that changes the outcomes of inspects and either the target (Myself) or the inspector (you) got hit with it last night.

Still, both these possibilities depend on the unknown new role...

Gee, you make me wonder.  When you talk about 'the mechanics' of what happens when either you or Persus is lynched, you're willing to discuss the possibility that you might be Scum.

But just a couple lines above that, the only two possibilities that exist to you are that I'm lying or that I've been tricked - the possibility that you might be Scum doesn't cross your fingertips there.

Schrödinger's Box, perhaps?  Nah, whatever it is, I suspect Occam's Razor can solve it.  The simplest answer, would that be that there's a new role that requires me to lynch you?  Or one that makes me get a false inspect result on you?  Or that Persus13 and I are lying?  Or that you are lying?

Surely one of those is true.  I wonder if it's the one that Occam's Razor suggests.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #488 on: November 15, 2013, 05:29:10 am »

I realized I wanted to look at the odds of my inspection having been redirected.

S5 had a werewolf illusionist, Tiruin, who died D1, so we never got to see how her illusions worked that game.

We had two functioning illusionists in S2 who both lived to use their powers, once one targeted the other (though neither targeted a Fortune Teller, alas).

Illusionist Role PMs specify redirection - but don't say 'how' or if it's limited to physical redirection -

Toaster (cult)
    You are an Illusionist, able to bend light, sound, and shadow to your will. Each night you can redirect another player, sending them where you will.
Archangel (town)
    You are an Illusionist, able to bend light, sound, and shadow to your will. Each night you can redirect another player, sending them where you will.

However - when the players ACT to place their redirection - they are told they leave their houses and cast illusions over the house of their target.  Several action PMs explicitly state that if the target tries to leave their house that person will be redirected.  It is NOT said what will happen if a redirection is placed on a target that does something without leaving home - and that has not yet happened in a game so we don't know what happened when it did.  However this flavor makes me believe that the redirect would fail -

Archangel  Town  Illusionist  Send Lonewolf to Mr.Person  Casts Illusion

 You move carefully across town, sliding from shadowed ally to shadowed ally until you reach Lonewolf’s house. There you construct an elaborate illusion to send him off to Mr.Person’s house instead of any other place he would go should he step outside.

Toaster  Cult  Illusionist  Send Eduren to Mr.Person  Illusion, confused
 You move carefully across town, sliding from shadowed ally to shadowed ally until you reach Eduren’s house. There you construct an elaborate illusion to send him off to Mr.Person’s house instead of any other place he would go should he step outside.

In fact the only PM that doesn't -expressly- say that 'if the target steps outside' part is the one where the cult illusionist redirects the town illusionist -

Toaster  Cult  Illusionist    Redirect Archangel to Jokerman  Redirects
 As the sun sets you head out over to Archangel’s house to set up your illusion. You take your time with it, carefully crafting the illusion so that he won’t even realize that he’s at Jokerman-EXE’s until it is too late.

But even that references "he won’t even realize that he’s at Jokerman-EXE’s"  - that sounds like a form of 'going somewhere' needed to trigger it.

As Fortune Tellers do not leave home to do their inspection - I strongly doubt that they can be redirected by an illusionist.  It is of course possible for another means of redirection to alter their information, if that means exists - I see nothing in the known roles that appears to redirect magic, only motion.
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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #489 on: November 15, 2013, 05:39:22 am »

To summarize the supporting evidence below, NQT is Scum because:

1)  He responds to pressure from Max (who is -extremely- likely to be Scum) differently than he does to pressure from anyone else - he confronts everyone else's pressure - to Max he vacillates and acquiesces over and over and over again.

2)  He set up Nerjin to be lynched, simultaneously 'evading' Max's D1 pressure (and Max also lessens, the drops that pressure D1, despite his claim of an inspect N1 changing his opinion of NQT).

3)  He waffles about why he lynched Nerjin/why he (claims to have) resurrected Nerjin.

4)  He tried to set up Jim in a very similar way to how he tried to set up Nerjin.

5)  He seriously discussed the odds of Jim being a monster hunter, really pressed this - despite the value to Town of any possible hunter not being exposed, and the value to Scum in any hunter being exposed.

6)  He reacted -greatly- to my counterargument of Persus13's statement "Anyway, NQT couldn't be a Vampire Lord", which didn't say that NQT -was one-, merely challenged that it was not proven impossible.

7)  From the beginning of the game - from before Max started to seriously tunnel NQT - NQT has spoken 'oddly' to Max (and to a lesser extent, to Caz) in a way totally different from how he has spoken to every other player.  In nearly -every- post interacting with Max - in nearly -every- sentence of interaction with Max, NQT's use of sentence structure has been more complex, his use of commas more frequent, his use of direct and clear speech vastly less.  If he were talking to -everyone- like this I would consider it differently, but he's not doing this with everyone.  It's constant with Max, slightly present with Caz, and almost completely absent (at least before the tunneling of D1 starts, on page 10 if you use 15 posts per page) from his interactions with anyone else.  Past page 10 NQT continues to use this unusual form of speech, especially when interacting with Max (during times of pressure and otherwise) but also during times of likely high stress.



My concern about NQT started with D1.  When Max White pressed NQT to the point of tunneling, NQT's reactions were primarily evasive and redirective - not just once, but in almost every sentence of every post with interaction.

I don't even think I've been particularly scummy. You seem to be fabricating a case out of nowhere.
...
I can see everything you said, but I don't see how any of it amounts to me being scum.

Okay, now I'd like you to think for a moment what a town player would do when questioned on a point. Do they just roll over? Defensiveness is not a scumtell.

You clearly did question me: there were question marks and everything. It's all quoted there. How is lessening a mistake a scum tell?!
...
You obviously missed the post where I said that I didn't intend to imply that playing a town cop was unwinnable. However, being a cop makes me play more aggressively and talk on behalf of the town more and this sort of behavior gets me night killed. Maybe my confidence was misplaced, but it isn't due to me having a scum or third party role.
...
You mistake my reasons, and I could have been clearer at the time: the very fact that we're worrying about ettiquette over questioning of essentially meaningless questions is a sympom of there being bugger all of real import to talk about Day One. Now do you see?
...
Where are you even getting this from? You asked me questions, I gave you answers.
...

I'm not trying to mislead anyone, we're just talking at cross-purposes here.
...
You said I'd made a mistake, I acknowledged the mistake and then made a comment about the early game in general. Still failing to see how this makes me scum...
...
I think we have different standards as to what constitutes a 'question'. You queried my behaviour, I gave an explanation and expanded on it. Can we stop going round in circles now?
...
Obviously I don't think you should ignore what you take to be scumtells and so I took that part of your question to be rhetorical. Did you actually want me to spell that out?
...
You mischaracterise what I'm doing. You explicitly stated that I am scum. I deny this. I fail to see how we can both be right about this! I'm trying to get town to appraise your arguments and make a decision. I don't think they should lynch you if they disagree with you: I think you're wrong about me but you're hardly the scummiest player.

Compare this to his recent reaction to my concerns about his weird behavior:

Uh posting from phone right now so can't quote etc. but thought I should quickly nip this nonsense in the bud, Imp. I did my vote analysis and came to the conclusion that Caz was top scum pick. He'd have been my Day 2 pick were it not for two things: Jim appeared to openly lie about me, which I couldn't in good faith ignore, and I realised that Caz's Nerjin vote was later backed up with some (weak) arguments, meaning he'd voted two targets, which made Max more scummy by this metric. End of Day 2 I pegged the scumteam as Caz-Max-Jim. A lot of new information has come to light and I still need to process it all before making fresh conclusions. We clear now? I'm not behaving weirdly or asking to be lynched and you setting me up as a later lynch is incredibly suspicious.

And his tone in response to pressure from Jim:

Jim you're super over-reacting. It was an early Day 2 vote, you said something suspicious, I voted you to press it a bit more then later unvoted in favour of doing more comprehensive reads. Now you're just making shit up: I unvoted you before you voted me. Your behaviour since has only made you come across as scummier. On a lynch-all-liars basis, my vote is going back to you: Jim.

I believe that the reason his tone in response to Max is so different than his reaction to others is that he and Max agreed to 'do a dance'.  NQT might not have wanted to agree, he might have had hesitations, and this might well have affected his thinking and writing styles.  If it's hard to lie, it's even harder to lie in an 'unnatural' fashion, to lie along lines of thought that you're not completely supporting and are not sure is the best way to do things.

But he did not want to truly counter Max.  He did not want to go head on with Max.  In fact, he totally redirects - aikido - neatly lining Nerjin up as a target instead -

Now, there's two serious votes in the game: Max is convinced I'm scum, his argument is there for all to read. Nerjin claims Max is seriously over-reacting. Well, who is right?

Max has an argument against me, Nerjin disputes that argument. They both can't be right and both of them have backed up their positions with lynch-votes. The game has left the RVS and there is now substance to discuss. Can you understand why I'd want players to discuss matters of substance in the game? Is Max or Nerjin correct?

A very interesting thing happens between Max and NQT as Nerjin starts to get suspicious questioning - Max White's attacks on NQT ease greatly.  His last 'harsh attack' is here.

His next post doesn't address NQT (that's not unusual, given that NQT has not posted since Max's last post) but when he does return to the 'attack' on the following post - the teeth are gone.  The attack is winding down, the aggression is far less.  In his immediately made following post, Max has switched his focus to Nerjin, though not his vote, and he doesn't post again D1 (that doesn't end until 38 hours later).

So when Max claims:

For those wondering night 1 I did inspect NQT and found him benign. It was enough to convince me to rethink my stance, at least in regards to his day 1 play, but then he started role fishing and wanting to lynch somebody for being a Monster Hunter, and apparently inspects come before converts making him as potentially scum as anybody else... Then Caz flipped cult instead of vampire and it kind of settled that.

That's not what I see.  I see that NQT and he 'set up' Nerjin in a way that they both hoped would neatly separate them should either be caught, and that Max 'dropped off' his 'attack' of NQT when there was a likely Town candidate lynch.


As to D2 Scumminess:

The whole mess of his waffling explanation about 'why Nerjin' - both as a lynch and as a resurrection choice. - heck, this post even starts like the same 'stampede' set up that he pulled on Nerjin, now a slightly different style trying to pull on Jim -

Hell, I admit I'm not always right about everything. Let's open these questions up to the floor.

Nerjin, Tiruin, Persus13, Cmega3, Imp, ToonyMan, Caz, Max White, Toaster

If a town monster hunter has an investigate and a kill ability, should they investigate their targets before killing them?

Should a priest use their resurrect power?

But back to that waffling about Nerjin, here's quotes to highlight it:

We knew he was town and by the end of Day 1 it looked like he was getting his act together and finally starting to think critically about the game.

Not sure how wanting to resurrect a confirmed town player is scummy. I was concerned about being night killed before I got the chance to use my power.

I was thinking of the posts immediately before you quoted, like this. He obviously went and reread parts of the thread and seemed to putting in some effort.

Max this is baseless speculation. Nerjin was so borderline. I didn't know whether he was just appearing to give an effort just because I gave an ultimatum and I knew I could resurrect him if I was wrong. I probably would have unvoted him if his scum-pick breakdown had made much sense.

I don't see the contradiction. Nerjin came to be town and I thought he would get his act into gear if he resurrected as town, and I had a strong incentive to use the power N1 before I get mislynched or night killed.

The last was in answer to my challenge, that the same reasons to lynch Nerjin are also reasons NOT to resurrect him.


Speaking of which...

Everyone else, Jim has clearly lied in his response to Toaster to back up his weak case: he just said that "Do you think he would have backed off if I hadn't voted him?" when in fact I had already unvoted when he voted me. Why would a town player need to lie to support their lynch target? Jim is scum and must die tonight.

I don't think Jim's clearly lying.  You've only got one vote, but if you can properly direct 'everyone else' - then you've got enough votes to lynch anyone you target.  You don't even have to be voting yourself.  I don't think Jim meant your 'backing off' meant your unvote.  I think he meant something much closer to your backing off on your gathering of crowd-focus to get momentum for a lynch pick, which actually took a fair bit more time than that post and was 'helped' or to your perspective 'hindered' by the general lack of agreement with you on the topic chosen.

I clearly didn't use the tabulation to build a case against you. I tabulated so people could have access to the same information I was working with. Let's be clear now as well:  my current case against you is not anything to do with how you'd play a Hunter, it's because you lied to Tiruin about your vote on me and town never have a good reason to lie to press a lynch.

Considering how you 'set Nerjin up' - AND how you twisted the second question from "yes or no resurrection" in your tabulation to "yes or no Nerjin" - I don't believe you.  I think you were trying to set Jim up, just like you tried and succeeded in setting Nerjin up.  What were you saying about the necessity of lynching liars?  For that matter, how -careful- were you to ensure that there wasn't a misunderstanding or misinterpretation on Jim's part?

In what world is unvoting not backing off? Jim casts his votes as trying to get me to back off, which is dubious in and of itself, but his claim that I wouldn't back off if he didn't vote me is an outright lie.

This world - the world of NQT having already set up one lynch in a similar fashion.


Worth mentioning too - that you did focus on the undefined probability of Jim being a monster hunter.  I agree that is a scummy thing to do.


Worth mentioning too -

Imp
Because of this, it is possible for NQT to be vampire, and Leader, and have a Scum teammate who is a priest -which would allow him to 'breadcrumb' priest with complete confidence and an ability to 'prove it' as long as his priest doesn't die before he or she can res someone.
Oh not you as well. Do you really think it's plausible that I could learn of a team mate having a priest role and decide to collude with them in bread-crumbing it all in the first hour of playing the game? It's not logically impossible, but it's not very plausible either.

That's a crazy strong reaction to my challenge to Persus13's assumption that it was -impossible- for NQT to be the Vampire Leader (even given that we didn't know if we had vampires).


But here's 'deeper evidence' - given that (I know) Max has lied about being a Sage...

Even from the beginning of the game - from before Max first votes for notquitethere, NQT speaks weirdly to Max (and to a lesser extent to Caz) in a way that is not present when he talks to others.  His very sentence structure is different than how he is posting to others.  He's using far more commas, he's often writing the sentences 'backwards', using a style that is still good English but isn't simple, direct, or easy - a style that he is NOT using with others.  And what he says is typically indefinite - he's answering others for the most part directly.  He's answering Max (and sometimes Caz) with vastly more 'dithering' and 'qualifying' - and this happens before serious pressure comes to him from Max, and it doesn't happen when others put pressure on him.

I did talk about this back then, when I compared how NQT was talking to Max as aikido-like - but it's WAY more obvious to me now (and I understand a possible reason for it now that I didn't then - Max, Caz, and NQT are all Scum)
 
Selected quotes from NQT posts talking to Max (not including any from 'breadcrumb'):

"You see 'acting like scum' is quite nebulous."

"There are, however, certain Day One actions that set off alarm bells for me."

"Also, when I make a mistake of play I try to own up to it: it was wrong of me to question your questioning before the original respondent had responded and it was right of you to pick up on that."

"At my worst, or most enthusiastic, I work off a vague sense of the game's position and post responses without giving adequate consideration to their wording."

"That's what I meant, yes."

"I should say, my play specifically on Day One sometimes suffers mis-steps because I prefer concrete information and also I occasionally don't think about my precise wording when I post."

Selected quotes from NQT posts talking to Caz:

"Also, it's hard to know whether someone genuinely is the most suspicious player, if a whole bunch of players haven't said anything."

"You've probably been asked this already or before, but have you played much mafia before?"

"So this isn't your first spin round the merry-go-round, good"

Comparatively, there is a very direct feel in his answers to others, which also usually average out shorter:

"Only scum and third-parties want to go unnoticed."
"Those are usually the hardest to win by because other roles you can win if your team mates survive after your death."
"It's only a wrong question at this stage of the game if you learn nothing from my response."
"By tailoring my questions to each individual person rather than asking mass questions, the respondents can't get clues on how to answer from the responses of others."
"I see that you answered the questions directed to you reasonably effectively but you didn't deign to answer any in turn"
"Another question: do you think Imp's actions look more like a scum avoid-antagonising-people strategy or an earnest misunderstanding (or something else)?"
"The reason I asked my question was because I wanted to get a sense as to whether Kleril genuinely was looking out for anything different this game."
"That's very nice of you but you could also answer the outstanding question:"

To be fair - there ARE a few other people where he sporadically uses his 'Max style' with before page 10 - however he is not being especially evasive in talking to these others, nor is the sentence structure as strongly changed, and it is sporadic, not consistent.

"Obviously, I read the main thread, but I don't necessarily recall all the usernames of new players."

"There's this idea in chess (and other games) called momentum, if you're always reacting to the other player's move they've got momentum."

"I've died twice on N1 as town cop in two BM's and then had the game go on to a town-loss: BM's on this subforum are heavily weighted towards scum, and obviously if I die after the first day there's very little I personally can do to help win them."

"Survivor probably isn't unwinnable, though I've never won as a survivor: it's just much much harder to win because most other alignments don't require living until the end, and there's very little to prevent scum from thinking you're a town-player and offing you in the night"

"I consider town and scum very winnable, and I was pleased to be regular town rather than a third party this game."

"Merely, that wasn't the purpose of my question at the time."
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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #490 on: November 15, 2013, 05:56:30 am »

After lots of thought, and really rereading D1, I think that Caz was Scum from the start, and that Max was also Scum from the start.

I was scared about possible conversions, which is why I had not yet voted for anyone today despite my claim - if we have a converter that's top priority and as a Survivor Max -cannot- be a converter.  I feared that NQT was the converter and claimed priest to cover any possible Fortune Teller inspection of himself (priests are likely changers - likely given that my inspection of a priest is the first the S games have seen I only say likely - but that's a great cover for a converter, who has been proven to Fortune-Teller inspect as a changer)

NQT's reaction to my refutation that it was -impossible- for him to be a Vampire Lord also scared me.  That's a strong and personalized reaction to a post that accused him of nothing, that asked nothing of him, and that only challenged another player's opinion that something was ruled out when I felt it was actually not disproven to the level of fact.

Why does NQT care if I or we think there could be a Vampire Lord, and are willing to entertain the idea that it could be him?  For that matter, does his claim of being the priest that resurrected Nerjin seem - rushed - both in picking Nerjin, and in making the claim?  Given that we know there was a Scum priest - Caz -could- have resurrected Nerjin.  Only the end of the game can prove this line of wondering.

Because of these doubts, I'd -still- like to lynch NQT first, if enough people agree that NQT and Max are both probably Scum.  I don't think that Meph would give an 11 player newbie-friendly game a non-Vampire (or heck, maybe it IS two Vampires and a human priest to start...) converting Scum team that started with 3 members.  However, I'm scared enough that I want NQT dead first.

That's another limb though - the idea that we could face that difficult a challenge.  I love going out on limbs.  I love it.  It's the ideas you -refuse- to see that usually kill you, at least I believe this - so I'll agree to see them all and discard them as seems fitting only when it seems fitting to me.

That said, I bet most all of you still want Max White lynched first.  I'm willing - but I'm serious about being scared about it.  If NQT -is- a converter - we're probably in deep trouble if we don't kill him first.  So I'll support the Max White lynch, totally - but I'll switch faster than fast to NQT if people agree he's the better D3 lynch - if we have a converter, we have NO time to waste.  If we don't have a converter, order doesn't matter at all.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #491 on: November 15, 2013, 07:35:36 am »

Role Analysis

If Max is town then Imp and Persus are malicious, unless we think someone could have been redirected? If we have a town illusionist who's responsible for shenanigans here, maybe they should think of saying something.

A sorcerer looks like a commuter, or whatever-it's-called. The one that goes elsewhere and so can't be affected by any night actions. If so, that's probably why there was no Day 1 NK: hunter hit a knight and the cult hit the sorcerer. Guess we'll find out at game end.

If Max is a Seer (good or bad) then either Persus is malicious (scum or 3rd party) or Max was redirected. Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer (if he's scum then it'd spell doom for him on a false Persus-flip. Town wouldn't fakeclaim). So Max is a seer. If Max is a seer and Imp can't be redirected, then Imp is scum. Max is Seer so Imp is scum. As we have reason to believe that there is only one scum member left, if Imp is scum then Persus is not scum (and instead a malicious 3rd party). By this logic we should lynch Imp and win the game.

Or have I made a false assumption somewhere along the line?

Meph could you tell us whether fortune-tellers can be redirected?



Max— it doesn't look like fortune-tellers can be redirected, but there can be scum-fortune tellers. I guess you anticipated people following you in a Persus lynch, right?

Toaster, you going to weigh down on either side here?

Jim
And you were so right your vote ended up on him at the end of the day.

Oh, wait.
Been through all this. I had good reason to think you were scum too.

Is it correct to assume there's three scum?
From 9p to 11p there are typically two scum, and then once it gets to 12p it gets bumped up to three
Hmm... that changes things a bit.

Imp

Toony
Unless Max can explain himself with Imp's claim now I think it's Max that's lying.  He has two claims against his one.  That would be probably the entire scum team outing themselves if that were true.
It's possible that either Imp or Persus are a 3rd party. Hmm... none of this seems to stack up.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #492 on: November 15, 2013, 07:42:59 am »

I'm making a post but that's after other games post. All these..talk. Imp talks the most sense upon a skim but..yeah, re-reading.

Role Analysis

If Max is town then Imp and Persus are malicious, unless we think someone could have been redirected? If we have a town illusionist who's responsible for shenanigans here, maybe they should think of saying something.

A sorcerer looks like a commuter, or whatever-it's-called. The one that goes elsewhere and so can't be affected by any night actions. If so, that's probably why there was no Day 1 NK: hunter hit a knight and the cult hit the sorcerer. Guess we'll find out at game end.

If Max is a Seer (good or bad) then either Persus is malicious (scum or 3rd party) or Max was redirected. Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer (if he's scum then it'd spell doom for him on a false Persus-flip. Town wouldn't fakeclaim). So Max is a seer. If Max is a seer and Imp can't be redirected, then Imp is scum. Max is Seer so Imp is scum. As we have reason to believe that there is only one scum member left, if Imp is scum then Persus is not scum (and instead a malicious 3rd party). By this logic we should lynch Imp and win the game.

Or have I made a false assumption somewhere along the line?

Meph could you tell us whether fortune-tellers can be redirected?
...How or where do you know what a Sorcerer does and where did you hear it and where was it originated from?

Counter argument, hypothetical @NQT: If Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer, then why is Imp falling alongside Persus in the counter-attack if she's scum?

@Bolded part: We only lynched 1 scum out, leaving 2 left given the number of people total and the given count (and yeah, I fairly doubt that the cult is a full-blown cult. On a minor note, the fact that there is a Cult idea speaks..more of flavor. Purely by me reading D1 flavor..erh, only. Unless anyone has other notes on a Cult in this scenario.)
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - [SIGNUPS] 0/9
« Reply #493 on: November 15, 2013, 08:02:29 am »

Tiruin
...How or where do you know what a Sorcerer does and where did you hear it and where was it originated from?
Here:
  • Sorcerer - A powerful mage, the sorcerer likes to keep to himself and has the power to enforce his seclusion.
Sounds like they're a sort of self-jailkeeper— they might have a one-or-multi-shot coward move where they make themselves immune to everything at night.

I'm making a post but that's after other games post. All these..talk. Imp talks the most sense upon a skim but..yeah, re-reading.
Do you think her insistence that I might be a converter in a cult game has any merit?

Counter argument, hypothetical @NQT: If Max has no rational reason to fakeclaim Seer, then why is Imp falling alongside Persus in the counter-attack if she's scum?
A good question. Why would a rational scum-Imp want to discredit Max? Seer is the role the scum most want to remove from the game. If there are in fact two scum, Persus might also be scum. Or if there are two scum then maybe Max is scum (and Persus malicious 3rd party) and this is some weird bus to make Imp seem unimpeachable after the lynch. Can you see a logical reason for Max to fakeclaim seer? It's so easy to check!

@Bolded part: We only lynched 1 scum out, leaving 2 left given the number of people total and the given count (and yeah, I fairly doubt that the cult is a full-blown cult.
Jim says that if there's 11 players, the game'll have only two scum players. Thinking about it though, Meph might have put in three scum players if there's a really strong town (knight, priest, possible-seer, sorcerer?, hunter).
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #494 on: November 15, 2013, 08:04:22 am »

Max: Meph's "New Role" is one of the roles in the OP, not a newly created role.

Imp: But if Imp rezzed Nerjin, and Nerjin turned out town. Do you have an explanation for that?

NQT: Nice OMGUS vote you got there. And you're logic is flawed because it fails to keep the options open. Which to me is scummy.

Tiruin: I speculated in an earlier post that the new role was a sorcerer when Meph stated that there was a new role. If you check the OP, it's one of the roles that hasn't been used.
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