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Author Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over!  (Read 159847 times)

notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #555 on: November 18, 2013, 07:42:35 am »

Persus
Despite Imp's arguments that that might not necessarily be true?
Well, I might turn out to be mistaken on this point (but my knowledge of the inner-workings of Meph isn't an indicator of my alignment).

Imp
See, if Max is lying about being a Seer - then what he said about both nqt and Perses is made up and should be discarded when you consider lines of thought that consider Max as lying about being a Seer. NQT is mixing those concepts (even as a liar, what Max claimed as his results are still valid), and NQT has done so repeatedly, not just this time- which I think is crazy and not a 'reasonable' mistake to make.
I think I need a map to get to the sense of these sentences. You're the next Tiruin!

With LOGIC:  If Max is lying about being a Seer:  What Max said about both NQT and Perses was made up, and says nothing about the truth of either of them.

Thus - NQT and Perses could be benign or malicious, no 'proof' of any sort has been provided either way.
OK. If Max is proved to have been lying, then we shouldn't trust things he said earlier, sure.

From my observation:  NQT often appears to consider things deeply and from many sides, and his posts include many details to explain his thinking and own observations.
You're very kind. I think you show a lot of promise and I really like how you look at things in depth and appear to try to get to the truth of things. I do like to think things through but sometimes it takes a while for me to look at all the angles.

Thus - NQT is making a very odd set of mental choices regarding the 'details' he is and is not including in his posts, and these include some -big- logic failures.
OK. I'm all ears. I don't always get everything right.

Other 'nqt ignored' possibilities:

1)  If I am lying, Max could also have been redirected when he investigated Perses (assuming a role that can redirect those who do not leave their houses to take actions exists in play  - I believe this would be a never-before-seen role, as Illusionists appear to cause -physical- redirections only from what's been said in their PMs in the past - though this is unconfirmed because no illusionist has as yet ever targeted a 'stay home' role that was trying an action).  NQT appears to be thinking about some, but only some, ways a possible redirect could be used - and doesn't appear to consider the 'both' perspective.  I explain below why this 'failure to consider this point' is so interesting to me
You seem to be conflating two possibilities here. Sure, either one of you could have been redirected. It's possible (but it strikes me as quite unlikely) that you were both redirected on N2. If there was a town Illusionist to blame they would have claimed by now and there's obviously not going to be two scum illusionists (even if there were they both couldn't have acted last night as there was a night kill).

2)  If I was redirected N2, there is some possibility that there are -two- redirective roles in play.  Max could -also- have been redirected, we could both be telling the truth and both be innocently wrong (I think this is incredibly unlikely).
So we agree here. I'd go on to say that due to the set-up it's almost impossible for this to be the case.

It would be absolutely irrational for me to be Scum and roleclaim to attempt to get Max lynched.  If Perses is telling the truth about being a knight, the only way to get rid of him is to lynch him.  If he's lying about being a knight, my Scum-perspective would probably be 'yay, Seer revealed, we're getting rid of a competitive and dangerous third party today, and maybe that Seer tonight - if not, we're definitely getting rid of someone else tonight! - I have NO reason to prefer a lynch of Max to a lynch of Perses.
OK. I've given it some more thought, and you know what, I think that you're right. It would be pretty irrational of you to fakeclaim a fortuneteller result just to have Max lynched (though he potentially is the cop) unless it was part of some weird gambit. OK. Unvote.

It's completely irrational for either of you to fakeclaim your inspect roles as they're so easy to confirm. If I assume that both of you are telling the truth then one of you must have been redirected (I don't think it's possible for you both to have been redirected given that no illusionist has claimed). If both of you are telling the truth, then you must have been the one to be redirected. The scum or third-party illusionist would then be keeping quiet with the hope of getting both you and Max lynched. If that's the case then Persus really is malicious.

So despite Meph saying that it's never a sure thing, -you- are certain that Scum priests -cannot- resurrect someone as Town. 
My understanding was that town priests could resurrect a player to town or to third party (50/50 chance) and scum priests could resurrect a player to scum or third party (50/50 chance). So it's never a sure thing whether they'll resurrect as what you wanted, but you're not going to resurrect them to a whole other team. I could be wrong!
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #556 on: November 18, 2013, 09:58:19 am »

PFP

@NQT:
(I'm a town priest, I rezzed Nerjin as town, a scum priest couldn't do this: unless I've misunderstood how this works, Nerjin would have ended up either cult or 3rd party if resurrected by Caz, right?)
Liar, scum priest can fail a resurrect and bring them back as town.

Evidence proof conviction.

Well, I might turn out to be mistaken on this point (but my knowledge of the inner-workings of Meph isn't an indicator of my alignment).
Ohoho, but using misinformation to make your alignment more town is okay?



I think Imp is probably town.  I don't know why NQT is trying to do a lynch on Persus now so I'm going to avoid doing that.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #557 on: November 18, 2013, 10:00:37 am »

Hmmm I guess the exact details are unclear.  But a mafia res can certainly come back as not-mafia, and that means they can probably come back as town.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #558 on: November 18, 2013, 10:31:31 am »

Toony
Liar, scum priest can fail a resurrect and bring them back as town.
I obviously didn't lie: it's unclear at this stage. I recall reading in one of the previous games Meph saying the piety check was 50/50 (which would rule out three resurrection options for the scum alignment), but I might have got that wrong.


I think Imp is probably town.  I don't know why NQT is trying to do a lynch on Persus now so I'm going to avoid doing that.
As I explained, I don't think it would make sense for either Max or Imp to fakeclaim. I find them both incredibly dodgy and my analysis leads to the conclusion that Max is most likely scum however I don't think either of them are idiots. Thinking it through further, the only situation that seems any way plausible to me at this stage is that Imp was redirected and Max is telling the truth (though he might still be scum trying to dob in a third-party). I find it suspicious that everyone is unanimous against Max given my (admittedly contested) suspicion that there's more than one remaining cultist. A bus isn't completely out the question, but the only player that has tried to lead any other lynch other than Max was Imp (which raises more suspicions). At this stage it's more of a protest vote than anything. I seriously doubt I'll be able to persuade anyone else.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #559 on: November 18, 2013, 12:20:41 pm »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Max White: Imp, Jim Groovester, Toaster, Persus13, Tiruin, ToonyMan
Persus13: Max White, notquitethere



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Today. There are a net three votes to Shorten the day. Five votes needed to Shorten.





Meph:  Is it possible for a Scum priest to resurrect a player as Town?
It is possible, yes.

Meph: Do we know how many scum are there?
No.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #560 on: November 18, 2013, 12:29:59 pm »

Meph:  Is it possible for a Scum priest to resurrect a player as Town?
It is possible, yes.

Well, I stand corrected. Who knows, Caz might also have rezzed Nerjin!  :D
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #561 on: November 18, 2013, 12:42:25 pm »

Only one priest can resurrect a target. If two priests try, it will be randomly determined who is successful. The unlucky priest will find an empty grave.

I speak as someone who wrote the flavor for this exact situation.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #562 on: November 18, 2013, 12:48:01 pm »

Right, yes that makes a lot of sense. In that case I know it was definitely me. Those incense and candles in the temple of death didn't light themselves.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #563 on: November 18, 2013, 12:55:42 pm »

Right, yes that makes a lot of sense. In that case I know it was definitely me. Those incense and candles in the temple of death didn't light themselves.
But aren't we just taking your word for it?  I know Max has a benign reading on you, but I am very worried you'll become "confirmed town" if we lynch Perseus instead and they flip scum...although that means you really are town or Max is lying for some reason....

PFP more to come...might be better to lynch Persus..hrrmmm...
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #564 on: November 18, 2013, 12:56:18 pm »

Or Max was redirected when he targeted you.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #565 on: November 18, 2013, 02:34:59 pm »

Toony
Liar, scum priest can fail a resurrect and bring them back as town.
I obviously didn't lie: it's unclear at this stage. I recall reading in one of the previous games Meph saying the piety check was 50/50 (which would rule out three resurrection options for the scum alignment), but I might have got that wrong.

NQT - How is it obvious you didn't lie about your role to anyone but yourself?  Beyond that, I've made several posts where I state that I am not sure that you are telling the truth about it - granted I could be wrong - but really, I don't see that it is obvious that you are Priest or obvious that you are Town.

And I'm not the only one to think there's more than two types of priests.... in fact, there's not just -one- way a priest can 'fail'




But what really matters is, is the perspective that NQT providing really his perspective?

Is he saying what he really thinks, or is he saying what he thinks will achieve goals that he must keep hidden.

Looking at the whole of NQT's posts, the insistence he uses, the claims he makes, the techniques he has used, the logic he states (and other logic he fails to state) - I don't believe I'm seeing honest thought.  Does it matter if someone is wrong sometimes?  That's expected.  I can be wrong about what I believe I'm seeing too.

But the issue isn't 'is NQT right or wrong' - but 'is NQT being honest in what he posts as his trains of thought and the things he claims to see and not see, appears to consider and not consider'.  Again, I don't think I'm seeing honesty here this time from NQT.



Rephrasing my theory that NQT might have been lying about having raised Nerjin:

Someone has to have rezzed Nerjin.  If NQT did not do it - someone else had to have - someone else MUST be a priest.  But we know the game has a priest - and it is a Scum priest.  Should NQT also be Scum, it is not impossible for NQT to establish with Caz that NQT will take credit for Caz's rez of Nerjin.

That alone proves it is not impossible, and -never was-, that NQT could be lying about the claim of rezzing Nerjin  - and know he would never face a counter claim.  Similarly, if Scum and lying about having rezzed Nerjin, NQT would have full access to the information the real priest, Caz, can provide him, including details from the night action rez and actual role PM from this game - which only strengthens that it is not impossible for NQT to be lying (without proving he did or not).

One vital question - if it is true that NQT is Scum and is not a priest - why make this claim?  What value does it have to the Scum team and to NQT, to make it their chosen plan - especially given that it's a slightly complex plan (Occam's razor does not apply very well)?

I do not know the answer to that question, but the chance that this is true is what creates my 'impassioned plea' that we lynch NQT -first-.  It is also not impossible that NQT holds the unique role in the game - that NQT is a form of a converter by -role-, even though the Scum team itself appears to have S2-like disappearing kills.

If NQT is a converter of any sort, he would not be the first one to claim to be a priest - Jim did in S3.  Jim had no priest on his team, so he had to claim to be a priest who had never used his resurrect.  NQT -does- have a priest on his team, NQT could pull the same trick only 'better' - because he has a priest who could 'do the deed' and who could be trusted not to counterclaim his Scumbud.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #566 on: November 18, 2013, 03:07:39 pm »

@Imp:
I'll be repeating Jim here but if you want to lynch NQT why aren't you voting him?  Why are you staying on Max?



I'm being particularly wary of NQT because of his position, but I think he's probably town.  There's just that unfortunate possibility that Caz and him are in cahoots.  Otherwise (this is how I felt at the beginning of Day 2) I'm pretty confident there would not be two cult priests in a game and NQT's res was successful, as he claims (though I don't think he claimed exactly so until recently...?).  Hold your suspicions in moderation.



In any case, I think I'm going to switch my vote to Persus.  Seer is a powerful role and can't see why he would lie, it's true.  I mainly had my vote towards Max because Imp backed up Persus, but that's about it.  There could easily be some form of manipulation and I do not like this feeling.  Max's actions after inspecting NQT make sense too.

Meanwhile there was no mafia-kill N1 (if we assume Persus' attacker was a hunter) which means could it be that Persus is scum knight?  This is my conclusion anyway.  It feels more right.

If Max survives we can use his Seer ability which is much more useful than a Knight, and because I feel at this point that redirections are playing a factor here it's basically a 50/50 split on either one, and possibly neither are even guilty, but if this were true at least we can make use of Max's ability.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #567 on: November 18, 2013, 03:28:50 pm »

Hey, tell me, is Max White acting more like town who got a guilty result on somebody, or scum who got counterclaimed hard?

He's basically clammed up since Imp's counterclaim.

You guys can bandy all your theories about until you're blue in the face, but keep in mind that while you're doing this you're also ignoring the people involved.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #568 on: November 18, 2013, 03:54:56 pm »

PFP

Toony: ...I'm really unsure if you're too busy to answer my query or..that you're posting to the seemingly more relevant matter at hand.
Note. :S

In any case, I think I'm going to switch my vote to Persus.  Seer is a powerful role and can't see why he would lie, it's true.  I mainly had my vote towards Max because Imp backed up Persus, but that's about it.  There could easily be some form of manipulation and I do not like this feeling.  Max's actions after inspecting NQT make sense too.

Meanwhile there was no mafia-kill N1 (if we assume Persus' attacker was a hunter) which means could it be that Persus is scum knight?  This is my conclusion anyway.  It feels more right.
I put up the idea that scum didn't kill N1 to check for other people who can kill (yeah, pretty improbable but its a possibility that hadn't been considered...or discussed at all last [and the only time it was] mentioned.)

...So how do you see Nerjin's corpse > Persus' claim > Attack on Persus > Imp's role-scrying. And how does it go more right compared to all the evidence at hand? And compared to Max -- it could be a very convenient fakeclaim given the prospect of sure-ity -- what makes you think otherwise?

To note, Imp has 2 targets: 1 is a scum-priest, whom she got changer (which did not confirm or deny at the time but in retrospect, could be a defensive move now that I think of it. The idea that I didn't think of it then does matter due to how I didn't see it as such given how Imp...did it in genuine detail, to me). Given what you said, you believe Imp got targeted by an Illusionist, yes?

Jim
Hey, tell me, is Max White acting more like town who got a guilty result on somebody, or scum who got counterclaimed hard?

He's basically clammed up since Imp's counterclaim.
...I'm putting his absence more to internet dislocation than not. Though if the extend pushes through, I'm very interested in what he has to say. Either there's a lot of time for him to scheme up, or not, the latter seems like a more valid prospect to me.
Did you put the idea of his absence more to RL-factors into the case there?
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 3 solves metaproblems
« Reply #569 on: November 18, 2013, 04:01:26 pm »

I have no idea what he's up to.

I expect that if he was really a cop and got a guilty result on somebody he would be making a lot more noise. And even more noise if he was going to be lynched.

If I were a town cop with a guilty result and I were about to be lynched instead of the guy I inspected, you'd never hear the end of what I had to say. And none of it would be pleasant.
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