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[Lenglon]

So here's my question: What do people classify as a third-party (neither scum nor town) tell?

[Tiruin]

When they're acting out of the ordinary, perhaps. Sans the scum fakeclaim, this usually goes in turn with how the claim is worded (ie the person either has past evidence poised against or suspected to be against what they currently say, outright claim third-party [+ preceding notes]) or system of elimination.

I don't think it is exactly put in stone there, because the motive of the third-party (benevolent SK as opposed to survivor) matters.

[Leafsnail]

Well it's 1/15, only you're excluding one game where scum does clearly have the highest postcount with a fairly handwavy reason, and also excluding VLR which was pretty much a mafia game, and in which a mafia member had the most posts.  I guess the problem is that turning it into an actual rule is that it gives scum an easy target to aim for to crush you with it.  Simply seeing who is most invested in the game can be a reasonable tell, particularly if scum are currently winning fairly comfortably (as they usually are in anything other than Toon Mafia).

My other problem with the rule is that you haven't analysed whether it's actually true during the game when lynches happen.

[notquitethere]

Wuba

That's not the issue. The sample size is plenty sufficient to come up with a generality. However, the problem is that the data is not parsed correctly.

How should the data be parsed?

And yes, knowledge of the scumtell allows for better counterplay to it. However, this is true of every single scumtell. That's why it's a tell, and not a rule. The same goes for miller claims. They are, in a large part, a towntell. No one is claiming that they are always town though. Just that they are likely town.

I think I've heard this before. Why exactly wouldn't mafia claim Miller?

Imp

I don't even care if this theory is true or not, because I like its possible implications.

Well I think I've shown quite clearly that it is true, at least in general. Scum are usually not the most engaged/invested in the game.

Now that highest post count is being talked about, it could affect players' investment in the game.  I don't see it as likely to reduce postcounts.  Currently, I support anything, true or false, that increases or even may increase players' involvement and posting in the games I play/will play/might play/may one day play.  Woo NQT!  Keep thinking and talking, I like what I know of your thoughts and words.

Heh, hopefully! If you like this then wait until you get me started on voting patterns, hoo boy...

Lenglon

So here's my question: What do people classify as a third-party (neither scum nor town) tell?

The trouble is there are lots of different kinds of third party, each will behave differently depending on their wincon. A lot are like scum and have to pretend to be invested. Others are often quite chatty as they have to convince players to help them out. Survivors have an incentive not to appear too competent or too scummy to avoid both lynches and night kills, so I'd expect to see a small number of cases weakly pursued. Masons and cultists have even less incentive to bus each other than mafia, so once one flips you can usually tell who the others are by looking at how they voted at the end of each day.

Leafsnail

Well it's 1/15, only you're excluding one game where scum does clearly have the highest postcount with a fairly handwavy reason, and also excluding VLR which was pretty much a mafia game, and in which a mafia member had the most posts.

I wouldn't want to make any claims about Revolution as it has no flips and more room for logical analyss, and some people have to talk more if they're the ones proposing the team. I'm not sure my reason was that handwavy: in both cases (Webadict in that Paranormal 22 and Tiruin in BM XXXVIV) there was extremely low posting from everyone else. Only two people talked at all on either the last or penultimate Paranormal day, and scum won by default due to player absence in the BM. Under such conditions, it's not difficult for a scum player to be the most invested by the last day!

My other problem with the rule is that you haven't analysed whether it's actually true during the game when lynches happen.

There's certainly follow-up work to be done. Unfortunately, I'd have to look at the games without a tool, as I can't select an End post on the Lurker Tracker (consider this a feature request, ZU!)

[Hapah]

Could you provide, say, the Top 3 (or even the entire list if you've got it) in each of the games you analyzed? I'd imagine you've got it tucked away in a spreadsheet somewhere if you did the analysis, and it could be interesting to look at.

[notquitethere]

Could you provide, say, the Top 3 (or even the entire list if you've got it) in each of the games you analyzed? I'd imagine you've got it tucked away in a spreadsheet somewhere if you did the analysis, and it could be interesting to look at.

Unfortunately not: I quickly ran through them in a browser over a lunch break. I intend to do more in-depth analysis soon, and then I'll provide all results. It's not hard to do; if you're interested you could do it yourself.

[Mephansteras]

And yes, knowledge of the scumtell allows for better counterplay to it. However, this is true of every single scumtell. That's why it's a tell, and not a rule. The same goes for miller claims. They are, in a large part, a towntell. No one is claiming that they are always town though. Just that they are likely town.

I think I've heard this before. Why exactly wouldn't mafia claim Miller?

It brings them under suspicion. How dangerous that suspicion is depends on the roles available in a game, but anyone who has made a miller claim is much more likely to have a non-alignment inspect done on them. Since a cop can't verify you, other types of inspectors will often target you to see if they can learn anything. It also means that during the day players will pay more attention to you and are more likely to catch you out in a lie.

A miller claim basically trades cop reliability for instant suspicion. This is bad. Especially since it can cost you the game, since as things go on and the player count drops you always rank up there in the top list of people who everyone now KNOWS would show up as Scum if a cop inspects them. It's a bad space for Scum to be, since it provides little wriggle room if anything goes wrong.

[notquitethere]

That's a fair explanation. A general question for all: what alignment should a Joker claim?

[Toaster]

Except as soon as you say the player with the most counts isn't scum, he scum start posting the most...

If this gets people, as a whole, to contribute more, it is a positive thing.


I would like to see this extended to more games, if you have the time.  If you're really up to it, you could come up with post/day rates for every player on the forum, and then parse it down by alignment.

That's a fair explanation. A general question for all: what alignment should a Joker claim?

Take my opinion with a grain of salt since I've never played one, but I would think that it would greatly depend on the circumstances.  Some sort of oddball third party may get you lynched, but it could also just draw a vigilante.

[Max White]

If this gets people, as a whole, to contribute more, it is a positive thing.

Following that logic it is better to say that inactivity is scummy, rather that having the most posts = free ride.
And we pretty much already go with that.

[notquitethere]

Toaster

I would like to see this extended to more games, if you have the time.  If you're really up to it, you could come up with post/day rates for every player on the forum, and then parse it down by alignment.

This could be a fun project, when I have the time...

Take my opinion with a grain of salt since I've never played one, but I would think that it would greatly depend on the circumstances.  Some sort of oddball third party may get you lynched, but it could also just draw a vigilante.

Just off the top of your head, do you see any problem with jester claiming scum? The real scum are hardly going to say 'Oh no! They must be a jester!'

[Toaster]

Well.... I didn't really want to say so, but in the current meta, anyone claiming scum is going to be lynched, threat of jesters be damned.  So that'd probably work- it's also really lazy.


That said, if they didn't get lynched, any vig will blow them away.

[Max White]

Now that you have said that, anybody claiming to be scum is bulletproof. 

Perhaps I take this meta-mind-meta bullshit a bit far...

[Toaster]

Now that they're over, I can comment on something I tried the past two games.

I never actually voted in RVS, and I don't think anyone noticed.  It just goes to show that it's really not important.

[Max White]

Well I'm currently in RVS in a game, so not sure if I should say anything, but historically I have made it publicly known I don't care for voting when you don't want to lynch. We have all seen our names in red enough for it to be meaningless, it has no more shock value.