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[Starver]

Latest JWST launch estimate: 12:20 (UTC) 25/Dec.

Closer and closer, but still simultaneously continuing the observed trend of being later and later...

[Dorsidwarf]

Unless the mission controller is Zeno, they'll run out of possible steps in delaying sooner or lkater

[Telgin]

I wonder what the expected odds are that the rocket will fail catastrophically during launch.  A quick googling implies it's about 5% in general, but that also seems to be related to the success rate of SpaceX so I'm not sure if it's a global trend or one otherwise applicable to whatever launch vehicle they're planning to use.

I'd be absolutely terrified to be part of this mission with a 5% failure possibility.  As much as I'm sure they could build a second telescope a lot cheaper than the first one due to the nonrecurring engineering costs, I can't envision they'd get the budget for it at this point.

Even as a lay enthusiast, it would be pretty terrible.  I don't expect that the JWST will be totally revolutionary in what it discovers, but I'm hopeful it will help settle a number of open questions about the old universe that will probably remain open questions for a long time if it blows up or fails once it's in space.

[Frumple]

One crit failure away from kaboom isn't particularly comforting, no. Probably pretty decent in some sense or another, but anyone that's spent much time gaming with anything involving probability is likely just looking at that number and wincing at memories of xcom or fire emblem or anything using a d20. It's a distorted impression due to how human memory functions, but my oh my does knowing that do remarkably little for the metaphorical stomach butterflies.

[McTraveller]

It's important to note that with rocket failures it's always special-cause failure, not random failure, so saying things like "5% chance of failure" doesn't mean what most people think it means.

[LordBaal]

To the average Baal it means 5 out of 100 rockets will light the night sky.

[Starver]

(Just got the "24 hours before launch" alert for JWST. Finger's crossed, and remind me to check my super-secret cloaked orbital weapons platform isn't in the way the news tomorrow...)

[Dorsidwarf]

JWST launch went fine. Just one month before we find out whether the damn thing works for sure.

[PTTG??]

Screaming the entire time.

[Sirus]

First time watching a launch? Don't worry, a certain amount of fire and noise is totally normal. 

[martinuzz]

China has filed a formal complaint with the US about Elon Musk, claiming his space launches endanger chinese sattelites.

[LordBaal]

Spoiler: James Weeb telescope sends its first image of deep space (click to show/hide)

China has filed a formal complaint with the US about Elon Musk, claiming his space launches endanger chinese sattelites.

Did not they just made a live anti-satellite weapon test not long ago? They can go and eat a dick.

[Ziusudra]

Did not they just made a live anti-satellite weapon test not long ago? They can go and eat a dick.

No, that was Russia.

[Starver]

Did not they just made a live anti-satellite weapon test not long ago? They can go and eat a dick.

No, that was Russia.

Russia did it (most recently) in November this year. India in March 2019.

China definitely did in 2007, but demonstrated something in Feb 2018 (a follow-up to a 2013 episode) that might have ASAT capabilities to hit things in geostationary orbit. Hard to know of true intentions, though.

The US last notably (SFAIK!) did it in 2008, and are probably more than thoroughly equipped in the event of necessity.

Israel is thought to have tested the equipment capable of doing it, too. Not yet to full ASAT testing levels, but some experts think that's just because they know they can if they want to, whether that's with locally developed and/or US-fed knowhow.



On Musk, his excuse is that "space is big" (he didn't quite go for the full H2G2 quote... we know he listened to that show, and was inspired by it, when young). Though I guess we won't know how right he is until it becomes obvious how much stuff we can't cram into orbit.

[Gentlefish]

So far, the deployment of the JWST is going as smoothly as can be hoped for!

So, so very excited to see what sort of pictures we'll be able to get way out at the Lagrange point.