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Author Topic: Banter Thread: Has this really been a thing for four years edition  (Read 158808 times)

mastahcheese

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1020 on: October 26, 2014, 07:41:29 am »

If I had access to my laptop, I'd search my records. I don't think it'd take long since I haven't really played very many games.
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The Derail Thread

Leafsnail

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1021 on: October 26, 2014, 08:34:15 am »

The easiest way to do it is probably to run a search on your username in this board.
For the sake of argument I'll include every completed game other than Systematically Make Others Lose and KotM, even though a lot of them were unfair one way or the other.
Spoiler: Town, won 23/48 (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Mafia, won 8/15 (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Third party, won 5/12 (click to show/hide)
Overall: won 36/75, 48%.
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webadict

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1022 on: October 26, 2014, 10:10:04 am »

Buh. I thought my 823 was a few to trawl through.
I checked to make sure.

337 pages * 15 PMs / page = 5055 PMs

Wow, I was right.
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notquitethere

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1023 on: October 26, 2014, 12:26:54 pm »

My recent play has greatly improved on my 100% loss record and now I win exactly a 3rd of the time across all mafia subforum games (9/27 games).

Spoiler: 33.33% win rate (click to show/hide)

ToonyMan

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1024 on: October 26, 2014, 01:10:24 pm »

Win rates seem to vary between 33% to 50%.
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TolyK

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1025 on: October 26, 2014, 01:23:05 pm »

Whoo! Better than average!

...

I blame luck. >.>
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ToonyMan

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1026 on: October 26, 2014, 01:28:15 pm »

How do you have a 100% successful mafia win record?? Granted, 3 games isn't a whole lot.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1027 on: October 26, 2014, 01:47:57 pm »

Huh.  So my record is just as bad as NQT's, eh?
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TolyK

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1028 on: October 26, 2014, 01:53:52 pm »

How do you have a 100% successful mafia win record?? Granted, 3 games isn't a whole lot.
Uh.

I end up with better players who help me figure out what the hell I'm doing.
Possibly it's because I get better invested in the game, possibly because skillz.

Oh, and technically its 4/4 if you include the lover-to-town-turned-scum game.

P.s. I still suck at mafia as town. :p
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My Mafia Stats
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At this point?  TolyK.

Jack A T

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1029 on: October 26, 2014, 02:11:24 pm »

It's worth noting that win rates don't have all that much to do with the skill of the player in question.  Too many other factors in each game (quality of play from all players in the game, setup balance, luck...).

Just look at all the games in our lists that we say were quite imbalanced, or had a single bad townie undermine the entire town, or had us die N1 and still win, or were outright unwinnable.
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TolyK

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1030 on: October 26, 2014, 02:30:47 pm »

Well, yeah. But statistics are good at being statistics, in that they more or less represent what you can expect the win chance of a player to be, given a particular situation.
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My Mafia Stats
just do whatevery tolyK and blame it as a bastard mod
Shakerag: Who are you personally suspicious of?
At this point?  TolyK.

Leafsnail

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1031 on: October 26, 2014, 04:01:58 pm »

The average win rate in mafia isn't actually necessarily 50%, due to the fact that different numbers of people win in different games.  A pro-mafia bias (which I think we had for a good while due to the bad example set by the old beginner setup) would make the average winrate less than 50%.
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Tiruin

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1032 on: October 26, 2014, 04:53:25 pm »

Well, yeah. But statistics are good at being statistics, in that they more or less represent what you can expect the win chance of a player to be, given a particular situation.
Yet you do recall they're translations of an observed happening into numerical form, right? Meant to give a general gist or inferred-then-concluded/categorized idea of a population or sample?

Which doesn't explain the exacts of why that player won/lost or serve as a practical guide on knowing "the win chance of a player to be"? I mean it does do such, if they'd analyze themselves and recheck what they did during those games and create experience out of it to learn from--but that's aside 'just statistics'.
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TolyK

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1033 on: October 26, 2014, 11:10:19 pm »

Tiruin, I totally agree. These would really only be useful if, uh, somebody were betting on a side losing - they'd just average the win chances of each faction, then normalize them to 100%, to get a rough estimate of each faction's victory chance.

The only real practical use would be in balancing actual game setups.
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My Mafia Stats
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Shakerag: Who are you personally suspicious of?
At this point?  TolyK.

notquitethere

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Re: Banter and out of game questions: NQT has begin a mysterious construction
« Reply #1034 on: October 27, 2014, 06:02:03 am »

I'd say that of the games I lost, a lot of the ones where I was town I died early on and had little impact on the game, or I got to the end and was blindsided by a cult out of nowhere (as in Magic Mafia and Supernatural 6). I've lost as a survivor or serial killer a few times: they're difficult roles to win in and require a lot of luck not to be randomly targeted by the mafia. Playing as mafia I do much better as, but your win is still very much dependent on having  competent allies (I lived a long time in Mafia & Masons despite half my scum team suiciding in the first few hours of play).
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