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Author Topic: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread  (Read 76383 times)

feelotraveller

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #435 on: August 08, 2019, 09:22:28 am »

https://www.newsweek.com/china-pakistan-warn-india-border-1452896

Another link, for those unfamiliar with the history of the region, the most militarized area of the globe.  The provided map is useful.  Seems India are completely isolated diplomatically on this, not that it counts for much at the moment.
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Craftsdwarf boi

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #436 on: August 09, 2019, 08:17:32 am »

I had not seen this thread pop up in a while. Does anybody know if we still at war with East Asia?
We have always been at war with East Asia.
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Autohummer

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #437 on: August 15, 2019, 11:39:06 am »

Hello Hong Kong-forumite, I hope you're all right.

FWIW, I sympathize with the plight of Hong Kong natives. We have a lot of ex-pats here in kangaroo land from Hong Kong, some of which I consider good friends. They're here due to the writing on the wall with China and its authoritarian political system taking over their home. It's sad to see yet another protest for democracy fail, and I predict similar scenes in the future being reported in Taiwan sooner or later.

I just hope like hell that I never live to see the same images appear in my own country, although it's not beyond the realm of possibility I might.

Thank you for your kind words. Fortunately for me I am staying rather safe, at least for now. I have to be careful not to wear the wrong colour of clothes (black for pro-democratic protesters, white is for pro-Beijing protesters or alleged triad members hired to attack people indiscriminately,) but as long as you stay out of trouble you should be fine. Pop-up protests have become a daily occurrence now, some of you may have heard protesters had a sit-in at the airport, though that one has been dispersed. Yesterday the Police was filmed firing tear gas grenades at literally nobody, which people made a joke out of because yesterday was also the "Chinese Halloween," so to speak, and the joke is that the police were seeing and firing at ghosts. If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

People are in general worried for their futures and personally, I fear either the PLA would come and/or the central government (ie Beijing) would strip Hong Kong of its special status without warning ala Kashmir. However, I don't think Beijing would send in the PLA unless Hong Kong literally threatened to secede, for the cost is simply too great. The fear is there, however, and both sides have been using it to stir up emotions and fear to fuel their agendas. Also, everyone is rather tense and would probe each other for their stance before talking.

But personally I think the situation at Hong Kong is but a symptom of the quality of life degradation we have been seeing since the handover, the proposed law amendment was just a trigger. Even if the government merely solved a quarter of the issues we have now in the past 20 years, I dare say less than half of the protesters now would have protested. Ever since '97 people here have been seeing ever-soaring rent and worsening job prospects, especially outside banking and finance (those were the ones responsible for pretty much HK's GDP growth while everything else withered.) The government has been for these two decades almost completely ignorant of the problems facing the average Joe and only served the interests of large conglomerates. The government sometimes joins in the action itself, for example, it is the majority shareholder of the Mass Transport Railways (MTR) corporation, which is almost the wealthiest in the place. Not only ticket prices rise every year, but the MTR has taken advantage of the high land price by using developing residential estates and shopping malls directly on top of its train stations. I am using old data, but IIRC Hong Kong has the highest crony capitalism index in the world, the highest Gini index in any developed region and a good chunk of the busiest real estate downtown has the highest rent on the planet. I suppose this speaks for itself just how messed up the situation was and just how much crap people have already endured silently before the protests flared up.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 11:48:41 am by Autohummer »
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Autohummer

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #438 on: August 15, 2019, 11:47:37 am »

Accidental doublepost. How do I delete this?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 11:50:24 am by Autohummer »
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Trolldefender99

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #439 on: August 15, 2019, 03:46:41 pm »

Not that it helps but its the truth, but if China does anything no one would do anything about it. You can do sanctions against china, but then self destruct your own economy and further ruin the economy of the western world, like trump is doing. And then it really would end up being a world wide depression/recession with many smaller nations probably just collapsing. The only ones who'd likely come out on top is US (but with big problems on way there), China and Russia (russia only cause china probably help them out since they are pretty much allies). And no one wants a war with china.

Feel bad for you guys though, cause china can literally do anything they want with little repercussions (as seen by their expansion of their ocean territory). But if anyone does anything to them like trump with his sanctions, then it destroys the economy. So literally nothing can be done in a way that only effects china. I wouldn't be surprised if they do just move in if the protests go on too long, its just sad no one is likely (or really able) to do anything about it. I sometimes talked about china, to my hong kong friends who felt same way. They came to california, but they always thought it felt like china wanted full control of hong kong and didn't like they had a democracy right inside "their" territory or a black sore of their regime.

But that was just their thoughts of course, but I did think the same. But that is coming from someone who just sometimes reads stuff from there and what china has been doing over there in that region in general, so I dunno all the internal stuff
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feelotraveller

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #440 on: August 15, 2019, 04:26:05 pm »

If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

It might seem like an odd question, but I was wondering if any interesting (particularly humourous or politically incisive) graffitti has been appearing in the streets recently.  Would be most interesed in hearing about it if you see any, or is that something that would not happen in Hong Kong?

Keep safe, I do hope any violence passes you by.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 04:30:35 pm by feelotraveller »
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Jimmy

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #441 on: August 15, 2019, 06:00:27 pm »

I'm wondering whether there's any overt signs that some of the protests have foreign political backing. I'd imagine many western political entities would relish the opportunity to stir up trouble in China's backyard, and my cynical side says that perhaps some of the protests aren't as spontaneous as they might seem.
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sluissa

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #442 on: August 16, 2019, 10:28:58 am »

That's kind of interesting, Autohummer. The media over here tends to frame it as Beijing vs. Protesters. While the Hong Kong government kinda gets ignored. (Other than Carrie Lam.) Most of the attention gets put on the extradition law rather than a gradual buildup of resentment that led to this.
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Autohummer

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #443 on: August 16, 2019, 11:58:52 am »

Not that it helps but its the truth, but if China does anything no one would do anything about it. You can do sanctions against china, but then self destruct your own economy and further ruin the economy of the western world, like trump is doing. And then it really would end up being a world wide depression/recession with many smaller nations probably just collapsing. The only ones who'd likely come out on top is US (but with big problems on way there), China and Russia (russia only cause china probably help them out since they are pretty much allies). And no one wants a war with china.

Feel bad for you guys though, cause china can literally do anything they want with little repercussions (as seen by their expansion of their ocean territory). But if anyone does anything to them like trump with his sanctions, then it destroys the economy. So literally nothing can be done in a way that only effects china. I wouldn't be surprised if they do just move in if the protests go on too long, its just sad no one is likely (or really able) to do anything about it. I sometimes talked about china, to my hong kong friends who felt same way. They came to california, but they always thought it felt like china wanted full control of hong kong and didn't like they had a democracy right inside "their" territory or a black sore of their regime.

But that was just their thoughts of course, but I did think the same. But that is coming from someone who just sometimes reads stuff from there and what china has been doing over there in that region in general, so I dunno all the internal stuff

I think pretty much everyone here knows we are meat on the chopboard, it's just that people react differently to this fact. Some pro-democracy people wish for foreign intervention, but outside of economic sanctions (which are already there as a result of the trade war) there is precisely nothing anyone can do if China decides to send in the tanks now. However, I do think China won't do that as it does care about international opinion, if only just a bit. It is known that the period after 1989 was amongst the most difficult time for China to operate internationally. Of course, it has now become a heck of a lot wealthier, but China has a massive productivity surplus and it needs its markets. Also, unlike at Tibet or in Xinjiang, Hong Kong has a much stronger international media presence. Anything that happens here will be made known (if serious/sensational enough) across the world. Also, compared to some of the semi-hidden unrest that has had happened inside China, the situation at Hong Kong is really not a big deal.

If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

It might seem like an odd question, but I was wondering if any interesting (particularly humourous or politically incisive) graffitti has been appearing in the streets recently.  Would be most interesed in hearing about it if you see any, or is that something that would not happen in Hong Kong?

Keep safe, I do hope any violence passes you by.

Most actual graffiti are pretty normal, saying things like "the police are dogs," "revolution of our time" or other words meant to cheer protesters on. However, some people online came up with this:


Explaining the joke, this is based on the warning signs the police use to warn protesters to back off before using weapons and force. Black ones say "Warning tear smoke," red ones say "Stop charging or we use force," orange ones say "disperse or we fire (less-lethal munitions, for now.)" Obviously there isn't a pink sign, but it was a parody based on the red one used by the police. "Spring pocket" is colloquial term for someone's testicles. Now, why is there ball-kissing? It is because someone mistyped a single word. The Chinese character for kick "踢" is very similar to the word for kiss "錫" and someone who meant to say "Stop charging or we kick your balls" ended up saying "Stop charging or we kiss your balls." The rest, as they say, is history.

I'm wondering whether there's any overt signs that some of the protests have foreign political backing. I'd imagine many western political entities would relish the opportunity to stir up trouble in China's backyard, and my cynical side says that perhaps some of the protests aren't as spontaneous as they might seem.

That is a common rhetoric used by the pro-Beijing camp and the government itself. However, from where I am seeing, the protests are typically ad-hoc affairs, organised through Telegram or on lihkg, which is kind of Hong Kong's 4chan. Several political parties and groups also organise their own protests, typically these are more peaceful. Of course it is perfectly possible that some foreign agency have pushed things along, but I think mostly it is the locals. On the other hand, the police has outright admitted having officers dressing up as protesters, allegedly to arrest people easier, but they may as well as agents provocateur for all we know. Also, people are pretty certain the pro-Beijing people hired the white-shirted attackers to hit people on 21/7, but nobody knows if this was organised by the government or just spontaneous action by pro-Beijing locals.

That's kind of interesting, Autohummer. The media over here tends to frame it as Beijing vs. Protesters. While the Hong Kong government kinda gets ignored. (Other than Carrie Lam.) Most of the attention gets put on the extradition law rather than a gradual buildup of resentment that led to this.

The HKSAR government got sidelined because all it has been doing is fanning the fire. At the very beginning, Carrie Lam could have elegantly and quietly withdrawn the amendment. End of story. However, she is, in my opinion, very uncompromising and very unapologetic, almost to a pathological degree. It Carrie Lam wanted something done, she'd staunchly get it done, popular opinion or political reality be damned. Before she became the Chief Executive (CE, HK's big cheese) this was a boon to her as she made an impression of someone who could get things done, and after the previous CE got laid off the central government picked her for the job (that was another story and another can of worms.) But her stubbornness meant that while she did say that the amendment was "dead," she staunchly avoided using the exact wording as demanded by the protesters, "withdraw," for some unfathomable reason. That, and the police defining one of the initial protests, where some protesters breached the Legislative Council Building, as a "riot" (which brings much heavier charges,) eventually got 2 million people on the streets. (I was one of them.) After that, the government more or less responded by being aloof, and made press conferences where officials say (rather stupid) things on air. Eventually, nobody listens to the HKSAR government anymore, as you can almost guess what they would say. Thus, the "main opponent," if you may, is the central Beijing government, which can control the HKSAR government much like how the Crown could the Colonial government, or the Japanese Empire the Occupation government.

The media here focuses more on police/protester violence and the protest situation more than anything else, since it does impact our daily lives, but the law? That is not really much mentioned, like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 12:45:04 pm by Autohummer »
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feelotraveller

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #444 on: August 16, 2019, 01:58:55 pm »

Thank you for the joke and for it's explanation.  It brought smiles.

like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War

That is an excellent analogy.  :)

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sluissa

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #445 on: August 16, 2019, 02:17:55 pm »

There was an interview done on NPR in the US that suggested that the extradition treaty would have been something that would have been worked out behind closed doors between Carrie Lam and Beijing before it ever became public, and that basically she has no choice at this point unless Beijing allows her to back off. Delaying the law would be about all she would have the power to do(and all she's offered) and reversing the plans are something that simply wouldn't be allowed.

Thank you though for your first hand opinion. It's something I don't get to hear much of outside of the biased media coverage that presents it either entirely pro-beijing or entirely anti-beijing. (I say it that way because nobody seem to really be pro-protesters, it's all about "The idea of democracy" rather than anyone's specific grievances.)
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Autohummer

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #446 on: August 16, 2019, 03:23:35 pm »

Thank you for the joke and for it's explanation.  It brought smiles.

like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War

That is an excellent analogy.  :)

No problem, it feels good to be able to spread the news and take in how the outside world is looking at this.


There was an interview done on NPR in the US that suggested that the extradition treaty would have been something that would have been worked out behind closed doors between Carrie Lam and Beijing before it ever became public, and that basically she has no choice at this point unless Beijing allows her to back off. Delaying the law would be about all she would have the power to do(and all she's offered) and reversing the plans are something that simply wouldn't be allowed.

Thank you though for your first hand opinion. It's something I don't get to hear much of outside of the biased media coverage that presents it either entirely pro-beijing or entirely anti-beijing. (I say it that way because nobody seem to really be pro-protesters, it's all about "The idea of democracy" rather than anyone's specific grievances.)

Initially I attributed Carrie Lam's stubbornness out of her own personality, but I have heard of that possibility as well. Right now I don't know what is happening at the top-level anymore and most of the stuff that floats around are pure speculation and rumours. Yesterday I had to calm my mother down as she went hysterical after reading in a less-than-reputable Taiwanese outlet that the central government will strip all Hong Kongers of their HK identity and make them Chinese citizens (thus stripping us of all rights, including the right to travel/flee). However, I highly doubt if Beijing would actually do that at this stage.

!!irresponsible speculation below!!
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 03:27:45 pm by Autohummer »
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smjjames

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #447 on: August 27, 2019, 10:20:54 am »

EDIT: Gah! wrong thread. This and the Latin American Pol thread were right next to each other in the thread listing and I wasn't paying attention is how.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 10:30:49 am by smjjames »
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sluissa

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #448 on: August 30, 2019, 08:28:06 am »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-exclusive/exclusive-amid-crisis-china-rejected-hong-kong-plan-to-appease-protesters-sources-idUSKCN1VK0H6

According to reputable news sites now, seems Lam really was under Beijing's thumb and didn't have any ability to negotiate or cede to demands.
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Jimmy

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #449 on: August 30, 2019, 05:33:07 pm »

I mean, did anyone really doubt she was a puppet figurehead? I'm interested to see if the protests have enough fire in them to continue, or if it will all just die with a whisper. The opposite of passion is apathy.
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