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Author Topic: Bay12's posting history.  (Read 56067 times)

Aklyon

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #315 on: January 22, 2017, 08:42:48 pm »

I woudn't be surprised if a significant percent of recent bans are ameripol-related.
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Crystalline (SG)
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Quote from: RedKing
It's known as the Oppai-Kaiju effect. The islands of Japan generate a sort anti-gravity field, which allows breasts to behave as if in microgravity. It's also what allows Godzilla and friends to become 50 stories tall, and lets ninjas run up the side of a skyscraper.

My Name is Immaterial

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #316 on: January 22, 2017, 09:08:36 pm »

I woudn't be surprised if a significant percent of recent bans are ameripol-related.

Quote
Xeron      November 9, 2016      Ban      Trolling
Codician      November 9, 2016      Ban      Trolling
Vendayn      November 11, 2016      Ban      Trolling

I'm going to go with yes, they are.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #317 on: January 23, 2017, 01:22:19 am »

Also BFEL.
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It has been determined that Trump is an average unladen swallow travelling northbound at his maximum sustainable speed of -3 Obama-cubits per second in the middle of a class 3 hurricane.

Elephant Parade

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #318 on: January 28, 2017, 10:37:53 pm »

And mainiac, too.
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My Name is Immaterial

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #319 on: April 02, 2017, 07:38:29 pm »

Oh jeez, I missed a few months.
General Update:

No major news from this front. An unexpected spike in new topics on the 27th of March, along with an odd increase in online members around that time. Any ideas as to what that could be? Did the forums get hit by spammers?


In other news, I took a class on how to run statistical regressions and model building, so:
I'm proud to reveal the first model of B12 Posting Trends!

Based on a regression of daily post counts from 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2016, the equation determining how many posts are expected on a given day is:
Quote
Posts =  2506.71 + 2.18*Days since last update + -283.18*February + -576.60*March + -615.83*April + -676.63*May + -762.90*June + -928.52*July + -1077.16*August + -1415.67*September +  -1341.61*October + -1552.25*November + -1115.57*December + 120.98*Monday + -101.43*Saturday + -11.37*Sunday + 65.69*Thursday + 121.15*Tuesday + 96.09*Wednesday
R2 = .5074
All variable except Sunday and Thursday are statistically significant at the 95% level.



So what the actual fuck did you just read?
I've created a statistical model to determine what factors affected the number of posts on a given day. I looked at a lot of factors, including ban records, update history, day of the week, and a dozen other variables that the math decided wasn't a significant factor. I settled on three variables that are able to predicted 50.74% of the variation in this data set: 1. Days since the last update. 2. Month of the year. 3. Day of the week.
The second two are broken up into what are called fixed effects, or binary variables: it is either Monday (Monday=1), or it is not (Monday=0). This is why there are 17 random variables sitting around; each one is 1 or 0 depending on the day or month you are trying to look at. You may also notice that January and Friday are omitted. This is because Stata, the program I am using, chooses a variable from the set of fixed variables, and sets all the other variables to be compared to that one. Basically, if you're looking at a Friday in January, just look at the constant term, and ignore the month/week variables.
THIS DOES NOT PREDICTED THE RIGHT NUMBER WITH 50% ACCURACY!!! R2 is a term used to determine how accurately a regression explains the variance of a data set. If I add a very significant variable that explains a lot of the variation, R2 will increase sharply. This model isn't a great one, because there are so many variables that I can't actually measure and include.


I also came up with a model for Monthly totals, but it's not great, and has poor predictive powers, so I'm not going to be talking about it until I've come up with a better one.


If you want to learn more, shoot me a PM, and I can walk you through it. Alternatively, you can check out the Excel sheets, Sandboxes 5 & 6, where I setup the models. I can also send over the raw Stata files if you want to take a look at them.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #320 on: April 02, 2017, 07:58:28 pm »

Yes, there was a spambot in GD on that date.
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It has been determined that Trump is an average unladen swallow travelling northbound at his maximum sustainable speed of -3 Obama-cubits per second in the middle of a class 3 hurricane.

My Name is Immaterial

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #321 on: April 02, 2017, 08:33:31 pm »

I guess that answers my unasked about whether or not deleted posts count towards the total. It seems that they do.

Elephant Parade

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #322 on: April 02, 2017, 10:39:32 pm »

Yes, there was a spambot in GD on that date.
I guess that answers my unasked about whether or not deleted posts count towards the total. It seems that they do.
Has the Mystery of December Eighth finally been solved?!
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Inarius

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #323 on: April 03, 2017, 02:16:57 am »

The general trend is to have fewer and fewer posts, so I'm surprised that the "days" are with a positive coef, but I hadn't taken into account the "since last release" thing. I'm not sure if you could have a better rē with others coef. Good job for the "day-related" thing, anyway ! That's smart.
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My Name is Immaterial

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Re: Bay12's posting history.
« Reply #324 on: May 15, 2017, 08:53:00 pm »

Updated!

Updates on my side: my efforts to learn how to scrape the stats page with Python have been thwarted by pip refusing to update/install modules. Please send help.
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