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[Tiruin]

And character == his playstyle or...his role or...?

[TolyK]

Bah.
His character as a person, a human being, in his behavior.

[Scripten]

Alright, gonna be totally honest here. I really didn't realize that my power was quite so strong as you all are explaining it to be. This is my first time having a viable night game, since my usual experiences are simple setups with weaker PRs. (The last high-power game I was involved in, I got crippled on the first day by a random town attack because I didn't build my powers well.)

That said, I am giving my best account of my logic (however poor) in choosing night targets. Were I to be lynched, I could understand the points brought up against me when it comes to my actual play. However, I was also being attacked much earlier over the pure appearance of my role, which is something I completely disagree about. Due to the nature of the game, I feel like trying to analyze roles alone is folly. I could see just about any combination of roles and alignments being viable if the designer (Web) were skilled enough to balance.

I will admit to substandard play this game. I've been slightly overwhelmed and have made choices that, in retrospect, were not the best. At this juncture, I'm purely defending myself for the sake of avoiding another mislynch. I don't have any hard scumreads on others. (Suspicions, sure, but those are, as I said, gut reads and not particularly strong.) I don't really know what to do with my night actions atm. The more people concentrate on tearing apart my night actions, the more time we spend avoiding actual scum, so I'm going to just summarize like this:

My night play has been bad. I apologize. Lynch me if you think I'm going to be a liability. Just don't let my poor play distract you from real scum. As shown with prior lynched, poor play =/= scum play. Take from that what you will, I guess.

[Nerjin]

@TolyK

Nerjin - has pardon, but very possibly scum (due to PoE)

What do you mean by PoE?

Aside from that I really have nothing to add. I won't be around much today due to work and I've been sick the last couple of days so I didn't feel like dealing with it.

[TolyK]

Process of Elimination. Not really elimination, but given 300 scum-points on 1300 total (x100 so that % likelihood is integer) it turns out to be a fairly high probability.
As I said, this would be pseudo-math.

And wow long post.

[Nerjin]

So let me just sort this out really quick

Current cases/info [Nerjin makes notes in Limegreen]
TolyK - Town [I assume you think yourself town in this list]
Jack A T - town You say as much.
Tiruin - very likely town

Cheeetar - neutral, fairly solid with things going both ways (inc. Flabort's dilemma)
TheWetSheep - Null You say you need to re-read
Toaster - blank Toaster read I assume this just means null
IronyOwl - null

Scripten - very good candidate for an SK, timing of claim right after my action-investigate claim + bad logic for targets

Silthuri - slightly scum just based on gut feeling, not much more
Urist Imiknorris - need to reread, but replaced for 4mask (?) who seemed a bit scummy to me.
Mysteriousbluepuppet - Slight scum for poor case.
Nerjin - Has Pardon, but Scum due to Process of Elimination.

So you pick four people as scum here out of the remaining players with three being people you have no case on. That's 3 town, 4 Nulls, 1 as SK, and 4 Scum. I'm not entirely sure how you arrive to your conclusion that I'm scum. Could you please elaborate on why process of elimination leads to me as opposed to the other three players that you pick out as scum? Why doesn't it point to one of the null players?

I'm just curious.

[Scripten]

And wow long post.

Sorry. Trying to get back into this game. Play's been crap so far.

[TolyK]

So let me just sort this out really quick

Because you aren't 100% scum. Lets see...

%scum (0% means totally town), %SK
Given 13 players and 3 scum, and 1 SK and 1 survivor (I'm assuming he's confirmed for simplicity) in the mix as well.
Average scum chance is 3/12 = 25%
Average SK chance is 1/12 ~= 8%

TolyK - Town 0% 0%
Jack A T - town 1% 0%
Tiruin - very likely town 3% 2%

Cheeetar - neutral, fairly solid 20% 7%
TheWetSheep - Null 25% 7%
Toaster - blank Toaster read 25% 8%
 IronyOwl - null 25% 8%

Scripten - very good candidate for an SK 20% 35%

Silthuri - slightly scum just based on gut feeling 30% 8%
Urist Imiknorris - aka slightly scummy 30% 8%
 Mysteriousbluepuppet - Slight scum for poor case. 33% 9%
Nerjin - Has Pardon, but Scum due to Process of Elimination. ??% 8%
[/quote]
0 0 2 7 7 8 8 35 8 8 9 8 (sum) = 100
1 3 20 25 25 20 30 30 33 ?? (sum) = 187 + ??

This actually gives the four of you higher than ~30% probability.

Numbers are taken more or less from the sky, but are symbolic in that more scummy players have higher numbers (the function of scumminess-to-score has a positive slope everywhere... yeah...)

So you pick four people as scum here out of the remaining players with three being people you have no case on. That's 3 town, 4 Nulls, 1 as SK, and 4 Scum. I'm not entirely sure how you arrive to your conclusion that I'm scum. Could you please elaborate on why process of elimination leads to me as opposed to the other three players that you pick out as scum? Why doesn't it point to one of the null players?

I'm just curious.

'splained. I hope.

[Nerjin]

I think I see where the problem, for me, comes in. You're using math to assign roles. Essentially you think I'm likely scum because... I need some amount of number I think? Process of Elimination putting me as a high scum number makes no sense though. I could just as easily have 1% as I could have 99% in this graph as "PoE" means essentially nothing when you can assign any number to the percentage.

Care to explain a little better how "PoE" factors into this in any meaningful fashion?

[Tiruin]

Process of Elimination. Not really elimination, but given 300 scum-points on 1300 total (x100 so that % likelihood is integer) it turns out to be a fairly high probability.
As I said, this would be pseudo-math.

And wow long post.

TolyK could you come up with a more definitive or concrete or qualitative case?

Bah.
His character as a person, a human being, in his behavior.

ISN'T THIS VERY IMPORTANT TO DETAIL THEN!?
I don't see any details from who you may be detailing as possibly scum--when you talk about his behavior as a CHARACTER, then MAYBE that would be a great deal of something, right?

[Mysteriousbluepuppet]

I don't ever remember playing with you Tolyk. If you wanna base it on my being go ahead, I just find it funny. 

Just back from classes. 12 hours long laboratories, fun day.

For today, i'll keep my vote on Toaster. I cannot condone having a 3rd party around so long, especially one that could aquire kills, protect and other powers that WILL become detrimental to town the longuer the game goes.

Should Toaster be pardoned or some other shenanigan i'd vote for Nerjin, for protecting said KNOWN third party. Whom do a survivor benefit late game? Scum.

Tiruin by my logic, that I'm sure will be vindicated. Take it as gut feeling if you prefer.

Jack A T is nonexistant, wich is a shame. Wetsheep i doN,t even remmeber who you replaced. Will have to look into it. 4 mask i think.

[Cheeetar]

So I've been reading back a bit, and I notice nobody at all has really made any big deal out of Urist Imiknoriss being able to lose his panic so quickly. I'm worried here that he's not the only one who did. What do you think the chances are that that nightkill's likely to be used again, Toaster?

TolyK, I find your percentages fun to read but not very informative. Why are there two null reads in your list if Nerjin is only scum due to process of elimination?

For today, i'll keep my vote on Toaster. I cannot condone having a 3rd party around so long, especially one that could aquire kills, protect and other powers that WILL become detrimental to town the longuer the game goes.

I would be voting for Toaster with you, were it not for the fact that he did take a bullet the previous night and might just take another. I don't think scum are his friend currently.

[Mysteriousbluepuppet]

Quote from: Mysteriousbluepuppet on Today at 06:18:20 pm
For today, i'll keep my vote on Toaster. I cannot condone having a 3rd party around so long, especially one that could aquire kills, protect and other powers that WILL become detrimental to town the longuer the game goes.

I would be voting for Toaster with you, were it not for the fact that he did take a bullet the previous night and might just take another. I don't think scum are his friend currently.

I can understand that, but it may also be that they wanted to have him on a leash, and only have to use 1 kill later if they need it. Anyway i don't think either of us know at this time.

[Cheeetar]

If they don't kill him tonight, he's back up to having two lives. They wouldn't waste a night kill like that.

[TheWetSheep]

Day will be ending any time, right? And we're heading into a tie(2 for TolyK, 2 for Scripten). Scripten's post seems very transparent and genuine, and I'm having second thoughts. I'll go with TolyK, who's been suspicious for a while, to avoid a tie.

Why'd you tie the vote so late in the day Tiruin?


Jack:

My vote holds, though, primarily for one reason.

Why is the Imp stuff less of an issue now?

Why do you feel the need to deflect?  What makes you so scared of my vote that you feel the need to not only defend yourself, but push me towards a bunch of other players?

I was pointing out a flaw in your argument. I was not telling you to go vote those people.

MPB: I replaced Imp.