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[Sheb]

Actually, that's not true. I remember reading in Wages of Destruction that the allies DID manage to stop the constant increase in war material production.

Well, Germany's GDP was at its largest when the Reich was at its largest. But the factories in Germany kept going until very late in 1944 when they started getting conquered and running out of raw materials. Bombardments did shut down production for days or even weeks at a time, but Germany also kept building more factories. Tank and vehicle production too peaked somewhere in 1944, but aircraft production peaked I believe in late September 1944, long after aircraft factories in France and most in Italy and Netherlands were already unavailable and Allies were able to attain air superiority anywhere they wanted to. They built more planes than they could fuel or man.

What is true is Germany was late in turning its civilian economy into war economy, so part of the war material manufacturing expansion in 1944 is they were still working on that.

Well,I only have a French-language copy of Wages of Destruction here (Christmas present for my gf), but as soon as I get my hands on my copy I'll correct you. 

[MetalSlimeHunt]

My short list of consequences for the Chinese Axis:

-War between Japan and the USA is still possible due to preexisting conflict, but also not certain. I don't recall any evidence that the Japanese military was bolder because of Axis membership, so I think it's more likely than not that Pearl Harbor still happens.

-China does not significantly help the Axis. I believe that in almost all scenarios the Kuomintang would pull a Ho Chi Minh and eagerly thank them for their support, then do nothing to help them with it. The best thing they could do is strike at the USSR in the largest flank of all time, but Mao would probably break the united front if that happened.

Most interesting butterflies:

If Japan decides to keep the war with America soft, it's entirely possible that the US never enters WWII, or more likely pulls a WWI reenactment and arrives to crush the Western front once it's already broken in order to stave off the USSR. The USSR almost certainly takes more of Europe in both scenarios, maybe even going all the way to the Atlantic if American neutrality endures. However, the USSR's new empire might buckle and collapse pretty quickly, given that they'll be losing even more of their population to the extended conflict.

If the Kuomintang strike at the USSR and Mao decides not to care and the US stays out of the war, Soviet defeat is possible. There's not much reason for China to be that committed, but for the sake of getting German support against Japan or whatever. Actually holding any part of the USSR would at that point probably require outright extermination, but I'm sure the Nazis would oblige that. This path has suddenly makes an Axis victory seem pretty possible. I think the UK might start looking for a way out if it all goes that far to shit. China probably falls to Japanese conquest and is placed under effectively colonial rule afterwards. The Axis, Japan, and America inherit the Earth.

[Culise]

Still worse, the Axis powers in general had one major deficiency in terms of their pilot training programs that the Allies generally lacked.  In the UK and USA in particular (I'm not so familiar with the USSR, but I believe they had this as well), particularly-capable aces were regularly cycled out of the flying rotation and stationed ground-side to rest, recuperate, and most importantly, train new pilots.  In Germany and Japan, aces were kept flying until they get shot down.  This was probable one of the two major contributors to the unusually high kill tallies for Axis aces (along with separate methods for counting casualties), but it also means that their knowledge and experience is never used to create a new cadre of pilots.  Every fresh pilot put out by the British has much more training than their German counterparts.  Of course, the lack of rest and recuperation had other consequences; German pilots quickly began to develop a particular case of combat fatigue after multiple sorties, made worse by how many of their compatriots were lost. 

This is partially inaccurate - Axis powers, even Japan, did rotate pilots back for training duties. For example Norbert Hannig(42 victories) was rotated back(29 March 1944) despite him being a very successfull pilot who could have scored dozens more kills had he served more at the front. Sakai was too, despite him being the most successfull ace at the time, although it was first because of his wounds.

What was problem for both Germany and Japan was they didnt initially plan to fight a long war; they did not prepare enough to replace pilots. Experience of frontline pilots wasnt used nearly enough, they werent rotated back enough, there werent enough resoures put into the training program in general and when they then found themselves thousands of pilots short, they had to cut the flight hours and shorten the programs, which then produced ever worse pilots. Quality of Luftwaffe's replacement pilots started falling rapidly after approximately mid 1943, Japan's even earlier. Majority of the responsibility I think goes to Der Dicke, Marshall Hermann Göring himself. He proved his worth in Battle of Britain too.

USSR used a system of their own, IIRC. In many frontline regiments they had one or two experienced squadrons and then a "training squadron" with 2nd line planes but led by experienced pilots, that would fly slightly easier missions than others. They would rotate pilots from flight schools to training squadrons and from training squadrons to ones that flew the all missions. 12. and 13. GvIAPs at least for sure had this structure: La-5 and Yak-9 for best squadrons, while training squads with old LaGG and Yak-1 would protect their bases and fly safe escort missions and train when they had the time.

Thank you for the corrections and elaboration on the USSR.  That's an interesting system, and it seems quite good for making sure that rookie pilots can get actual flying experience in combat situations.  I do recall that one of the major crimping points for the Germans and Japanese was that inability to put rookies in the air due to the growing fuel scarcity situation later in the war as well, after all.

My short list of consequences for the Chinese Axis:

-War between Japan and the USA is still possible due to preexisting conflict, but also not certain. I don't recall any evidence that the Japanese military was bolder because of Axis membership, so I think it's more likely than not that Pearl Harbor still happens.

-China does not significantly help the Axis. I believe that in almost all scenarios the Kuomintang would pull a Ho Chi Minh and eagerly thank them for their support, then do nothing to help them with it. The best thing they could do is strike at the USSR in the largest flank of all time, but Mao would probably break the united front if that happened.

Most interesting butterflies:

If Japan decides to keep the war with America soft, it's entirely possible that the US never enters WWII, or more likely pulls a WWI reenactment and arrives to crush the Western front once it's already broken in order to stave off the USSR. The USSR almost certainly takes more of Europe in both scenarios, maybe even going all the way to the Atlantic if American neutrality endures. However, the USSR's new empire might buckle and collapse pretty quickly, given that they'll be losing even more of their population to the extended conflict.

If the Kuomintang strike at the USSR and Mao decides not to care and the US stays out of the war, Soviet defeat is possible. There's not much reason for China to be that committed, but for the sake of getting German support against Japan or whatever. Actually holding any part of the USSR would at that point probably require outright extermination, but I'm sure the Nazis would oblige that. This path has suddenly makes an Axis victory seem pretty possible. I think the UK might start looking for a way out if it all goes that far to shit. China probably falls to Japanese conquest and is placed under effectively colonial rule afterwards. The Axis, Japan, and America inherit the Earth.

The problem with a Chinese intervention in Barbarossa is threefold:
1. Sino-Japanese War has been in swing for two-three years.  The GMD is blocked from the Soviet Far East by hostile armies that are superior in a pitched battle.  The GMD no longer even controls their own capital or coastline.  The only place the GMD can even attack the Soviets is through Xinjiang, where the USSR is backing their own pet warlord Sheng Shicai, and where they've already failed in 1934 and 1937, and they can only do that by moving forces that are presently keeping the Japanese from expanding their gains still further.

2. The single largest source of military support to the GMD in 1940-1941 is the USSR.  This is largely due to the Sino-Japanese War; the Soviets are providing what will increase to something like $250 million in munitions and other military goods, as well as the air support and military advisors such as Vasily Chuikov, who won't be recalled until 1942 and is better known for the defense of Stalingrad.  The decision to back Mao to the hilt won't be made until 1945 and Manchuria.  With the Japanese holding the coast and the Soviets on the major land route from Germany, Germany cannot replace the USSR as the key provider of these supplies; there is no German Burma Road.

3. The GMD military has no way to project power within their own borders, much less beyond; observe the utter inability of the GMD to eject a single division of Soviet forces from Xinjiang in 1937.  Even without the Sino-Japanese War, it's a small force of regulars and a large number of various warlord-dominated forces of wildly varying quality.  With the Sino-Japanese War, those forces directly controlled by Chiang were rapidly destroyed, leaving him utterly dependent on the warlords.  In this respect, the GMD is actually even worse off than the Japanese, and they were thrown out of Mongolia in 1939 as well after a handful of border skirmishes.

Basically, Chiang needs the Soviets too badly to fight them.  Moreover, he actually knows this.  This is why he embarked on an almost-Orwellian denial of Soviet forces marching through Kashgar or the Gansu corridor, that there was no bombardment of Khoitan that resulted in 2000 casualties, that there is no war with the Soviets, that the Soviets are their loyal friends and allies, and that any rumours to the contrary are Japanese propaganda intended to undermine the friendship between the two nations. 

[Loud Whispers]

Different question:
What would WWII have looked like if the Nazis had sided with the Chinese instead of the Japanese?

Most immediate consequence would be are the Japanese willing or capable of attacking Dutch Indonesia, British Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaya, and US Hawaii pearl harbour, and will the Chinese be able to launch an effective two-front war on the Soviets where the Japanese failed?

[Rolepgeek]

Here's a question.

Germany sides with Chinese, Russians side with Japanese in the East Asian Theater. Pearl Harbor still happens, but six months later and actually has a lasting impact on American naval capability in the Pacific (actual port facilities and airfields are damaged such that it becomes difficult or impossible to bring up the battleships that are sunk, and most American aircraft carriers are lost). Japan and Germany, being arrayed against each other, both realize that this is going to be a long war early on, and adjust training and manufacturing with that in mind.

What happens?

[Egan_BW]

Loyalty cascade, America ends up fighting every other country at the same time and winning.

[Kot]

I am pretty sure we had this discussion before... during WW2 the "whole world vs US" would end in whole world victory even more so than now.

[Strife26]

I am pretty sure we had this discussion before... during WW2 the "whole world vs US" would end in whole world victory even more so than now.

Depends on how the Commonwealth's chips fall and what Russia does. Three sided wars aren't very predictable or stable.

[Rolepgeek]

In this situation, I believe Commonwealth would side with America over Russia, but that's not certain, I suppose.

[Culise]

It's all but certain.  The Japanese declaration of war on the US was never an end in itself, but rather the means to an end: to secure their oil supply to prosecute the war in China.  If the USSR sides with Japan (heavens know why; perhaps everyone in the Soviet leadership up to and including Stalin himself has a collective aneurysm and their replacements decide that a militant, aggressive power annexing border territories they have their own designs on is jolly fun), it only makes Japan even more likely to insist upon the historical Southern Resource Area rather than the Northern Resource Area (Siberia).  With Barbarossa, the USSR is going to need all the oil it can get for its own use; it won't be able to meet the copious needs of the Japanese.  The attack on Pearl Harbor and invasion of the Philippines are intended to keep the US occupied and away from the real war with the British and Dutch, behind a cordon of island fortresses from which the Japanese can exercise a defense in depth while the US are forced to operate from across the Pacific (a more successful Pearl Harbor aids with this).  Unless the British can be absolutely relied upon to throw the Dutch to the wolves (which the Aussies and Kiwis would protest vehemently, if only because they don't want the Japanese as neighbors either), Japan can't trust their military bases in Singapore and Malaya to stay out of the conflict, and thus will need to embark on a first strike there just as they did in Pearl Harbor.

By the same token, the timing of Pearl Harbor has only an indirect relation to the Sino-Japanese War: to wit, the US oil embargo on Japan as a consequence of that war.  The surprise occupation of French Indochina was icing on the cake, so to speak, but the oil embargo was key.  The Japanese, before the attack, offered to withdraw from the southern piece of Indochina in return for a complete end of US assistance to China, US supplying free oil to Japan, and assisting in acquiring materials from the Dutch East Indies, a proposal the US did not seriously entertain for obvious reasons.  It doesn't matter if Germany or the USSR backs China or Japan; the US oil freeze spelled an end to Japanese imperialist ambitions and thus made a war necessary within the year.  Alternately, the Japanese could have seen reason, backed down in China, and accepted a peace with some concessions, but that would require the Japanese leadership at this stage to be reasonable. 

Also, if Japan and Germany both realize it'll be a long war, they're much less likely to embark on it in the first place.  They both need a short war if they want to win; they lack the manufacturing (Japan) or resources (Germany) to win a long one.  If they expect a long war, they'll be aware they'll be unlikely to win.  Neither power is outright suicidal (certain statements by the Japanese leadership aside).  That said, if they do make provision for a long war, they might be able to fight better and harder for longer; Germany begins to gear for total war before 1942, for instance.  Neither, however, is likely to actually win; they're now planning for a war that plays to their opponents' strengths, the sort of war we actually had.  What Germany needs to win is to knock the British out in 1940 or 1941, avoiding the blockade that cut them off from imported supplies like oil, rubber, and tungsten and possibly (though unlikely) even tying British and US hands regarding the USSR come Barbarossa.  What Japan needs to win is to secure the DEI and immediately come to terms with the US and UK that leaves them cemented behind a sanitary cordon with a free hand in China; Yamamoto's "six months to a year," in other words.  What it ends with, likely, is a 1946-1947 war with nuclear craters in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Kokura, Tokyo...

EDIT:
Oh, and regarding USSR backing Japan.  Likely, the USSR conveniently "forgets" to declare war on the US along with Japan, being thoroughly occupied with Germans in the Soviet heartland, and the US, seeing the USSR keeping Germany busy as well (FDR always thinking of Nazi Germany as the primary threat), conveniently declines to declare war on them as well; it's not like the USSR attacked Pearl Harbor, after all.  Even if we go further and say Lend-Lease to the USSR ceases, they still stop the Germans cold and gradually push them back.  However, the war years are marked with a much slower grind back westward (shorter logistical tail for the USSR without those trucks, jeeps, railroad engines/stock, or fuel) and severe famine (likely encouraged by the Germans as well, who are stealing everything they can to stave off famine back home as well).  What likely occurs is a more difficult post-war layout, as well, without Yalta or Potsdam - perhaps a united Communist Korea (as the USSR takes "protective custody" of Manchuria and Korea anyways) and Communist Greece, perhaps a united Allied Germany.  It's hard to say.

[Shadowlord]

Y'all have gotten me to reinstall civ V and install R.E.D. WWII Edition Revised, with all your talk about alternative WWII scenarios.

[Rolepgeek]

In this case the idea is that Russia wants to grab some of those border territories right away, rather than keep the Japanese away and go after them later.

But that certainly seems like a good analysis, thank you Culise. Interesting, at the very minimum, which was the point.

[Culise]

In this case the idea is that Russia wants to grab some of those border territories right away, rather than keep the Japanese away and go after them later.

Ah, but the problem is that Japan holds some of those border territories right now as of the points of divergence: Manchuria, to wit.  On the flip side, Japan is upset the Soviets hold Mongolia, the Soviet Far East, and if possible, the rest of Siberia as well (whatever they can lop off, really).  If the USSR wants to grab the border territories right away, the most probable answer is not to ally openly with Japan, but rather to escalate the border conflicts of 1939 into a full-on invasion of the Far East by 1940.  However, the debacle in Finland has already demonstrated to the USSR the need for a military "reform" (read: clean sweep) before any such redeployment eastward for an extended military campaign can be arranged.  It's unlikely they'd launch such an attack before the Molotov Line is complete and the military thoroughly vetted.

[Rolepgeek]

Hm.

What do you guys think would occur in the much simpler scenario of Hitler not trying to invade Russia, and Stalin likewise not trying to invade the Third Reich?

Hell, here's a scenario for you: one of the many attempts on Hitler's life succeeds, in early 1940, say around April. How does the war go from then on?

[Loud Whispers]

If the USSR and Nazi Germany don't go to war, and they absolutely will not go to war, is that information telegraphed in some manner to France, Britain and the USA?