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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 197758 times)

TheDarkStar

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You also have to remember that they've killed a significant number of civilians and Iraqi government forces.
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it happened it happened it happen im so hyped to actually get attacked now

Sheb

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I don't know about IS and Israel. IS's priorities seems to be to unify other Muslims, and they have been cautious to focus on the Iraqi and Syrian theater, not attacking Israel (which they already border) or Turkey.
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Vilanat

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IS are winning big time. they have had some drawbacks, but the iraqis can't withstand their new tactics (Suicide Trucks which are neigh unstoppable and blitz operations where they storm areas using false flag disguise and conquer parts before the local opposition has any chance to realize they just let their enemy slip in). In Syria they are gaining both ground and personnel as well as the oil sources that accompany those grounds.

IS doesn't border israel, at least not directly and not on the syrian border. a cell that has been identifying itself with IS has already attacked israel multiple times though, both from within gaza and from egypt. IS see israel as a prime target, only it knows that they'll have to establish themselves first before going all in.

In my opinion, if somehow IS took control of palestine, they would start gaining a positive stance from the arab countries, opposed to the mostly negative they receive now.
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Loud Whispers

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You also have to remember that they've killed a significant number of civilians and Iraqi government forces.
Less civilians and iraqi government forces have died to ISIS combined than ISIS combatants have died to coalition forces. The iraqi government forces have also been revenge killing and committing atrocities upon captured ISIS combatants, which will no doubt increase their casualties.

I dunno. I hear other voices say that, even though they lost 10000 men since the start of the coalition attacks (which have been ongoing for a year, longer if you take into account that Hezbollah and Iran started actively sending troops to fight IS even before America sent it's first coalition troops in June 2014), their recruitment plus conscription of occupied cities yields them a net gain in troops, despite the losses.
They've got their zealots and conscripts, but numbers alone does not an army make. While the iraqi government forces receive coalition training, the ISIS combatants have their officers killed by drone, air and special operations. While the iraqi and kurdish forces receive volunteers from army veterans across the world, ISIS recruits its militants through delusions. The fact that they've having to execute militants trying to return to their abandoned motherlands should speak volumes about their morale and discipline. All the while Kurdish and Iraqi volunteers have been given the all clear by western governmentsand ISIS wannabes are getting imprisoned except maybe by the Danes who think you can rehab a jihadi and put them back on your streets.
ISIS is on the defensive, their advances into Iraq halted. The only reason why ISIS has increased their territorial gains in Syria is because the Americans are letting Assad and ISIS wear each other down - no matter who wins, it's a strategic victory for America.

IS are winning big time. they have had some drawbacks, but the iraqis can't withstand their new tactics (Suicide Trucks which are neigh unstoppable and blitz operations where they storm areas using false flag disguise and conquer parts before the local opposition has any chance to realize they just let their enemy slip in). In Syria they are gaining both ground and personnel as well as the oil sources that accompany those grounds.
IS doesn't border israel, at least not directly and not on the syrian border. a cell that has been identifying itself with IS has already attacked israel multiple times though, both from within gaza and from egypt. IS see israel as a prime target, only it knows that they'll have to establish themselves first before going all in.
In my opinion, if somehow IS took control of palestine, they would start gaining a positive stance from the arab countries, opposed to the mostly negative they receive now.
ISIS attacked an Iraqi military base wearing Iraqi uniforms. Repelled. ISIS attacked an Iraqi base holding American ground forces in Iraq, with their unstoppable 'new tactics.' They are demolished. ISIS suicide humvee attack on Iraqi police base is successful, but they fail to take it. The attacks cause most casualties on checkpoints. Not bases. The Iraqi base that fell to ISIS did not fall because of their unstoppable 'new tactics,' it fell because it was isolated and the Iraqi command sent no air power to aid its own garrisoned soldiers. So thank god the coalition does not take orders from Iraq. Suicide trucks or no, that base was going to fall.
They are surrounded by Turkey, Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with all of Europe, Russia, America, Australasia and China keeping a close eye on their activities. We would need to see a regional power's entire army defect before they could seriously pose a threat to major powers around the globe.

I don't know about IS and Israel. IS's priorities seems to be to unify other Muslims, and they have been cautious to focus on the Iraqi and Syrian theater, not attacking Israel (which they already border) or Turkey.
Peculiarly Netanyahu seems more concerned with Iran than ISIS and ISIS have also not made any attempts at provoking Israel, when their entire grand strategy involves provoking every nation on the planet. I presume it's because Israel proper does not have any large muslim populations it could turn against the government, so it'd have nothing to gain by opening a front with the IDF when it's already embittered in conflict. Likewise the Israeli top brass see Iranian jets exercising their own strikes on ISIS in Iraq, and Shia-militia in Iraq and Syria as proxy forces of Iran, and see a state steadily exerting its hegemony eastwards towards Israel. Both sides seem content to avoid conflict for now. Should the balance of power change or Caliph Abu-Bakr two electric boogaloo be replaced by someone else, the fight could extend to Jerusalem. At this rate though, they're more likely to attack Rome than Jerusalem.
Seems they know about as much geography as Americans though. Unlike Americans however, they don't have the excuse of being a continent away. It reminds me of that Indian branch of Al-Qaeda, who were tasked with attacking a US carrier. However, being a bunch of uneducated goatherds, they attacked the first giant metal ship they saw - which was a Pakistani warship, and got absolutely demolished. Lots of belief, lots of devotion, but the number of well-educated leaders they have dwindles with every passing strike.

MonkeyHead

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The moment IS touches Israel with intent and menace (not that I ever expect it to), the West (be it the US, Nato or the UN) will step in, and in a big way. Boots on the ground and in big number, serious air power with close support, carrier groups, stand off bombardment by land and sea, special forces, the works. Fanatical fighters with little more than zeal, an AK and a few hand grenades are not a match for a well equipped, well trained modern professional soldier in a stand up fight led by those who have been there and done that in the middle east (even if what they did did not go so very well) with multiple forms of support. You can not suicide bomb an Apache 'chopper, after all. It is one thing carving out some success in a failing nation or anarchic civil war, but an action against the IDF would be madness, and they know it, deluded fundie fools that they are.
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Zangi

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Israel, Saudia Arabia and probably a few others in the area are banking on ISIS being too weak to bother them, but strong enough to put the pain on Syria/Iran.  The pain on Iraq is not a bad thing either, since the current Iraqi leadership is friendly towards Iran.

/status quo is fine for some interests
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smjjames

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My newspaper reports that in Palestine, Hamas has started to fight IS, which is trying hard  to get a foothold in Palestine now too.
I hope for them that they succeed, for if IS were to get a foothold in Palestine, I can't imagine Israel doing anything but going all out on it, and burn the whole of Palestine to the ground, with 100% public support internally. IS in Palestine would be regarded by the whole Israelian population as too big a threat for the existance of Israel to not go all out. They might even use nukes, if the weather conditions are favourable (like, wind not blowing the fallout over Israel).

In a few days older news, IS captured a northern province of Syria, and is now at the border of Turkey. Uncomfortably close to Europe.

No, using nukes would be the worst atrocity ever, even if ISIS is the one controlling palestine. Plus someone (the Israelis) would have to deal with the radioactive wasteland left behind. Also, that fallout is going to blow over SOMEONE, no matter what, they don't have a convenient vast ocean to use, plus that fallout is going to go a long way. Remember, the fallout from Chernobyl reached Sweden, it can go pretty far.

I figure that they're mostly ignoring Israel because they know that they'll get pounded hard the moment that they try.

Iraq has become an unfortunate pawn in the power plays of the regional powers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Actually no, the whole region (except Egypt, who is off to the side, and the rest of North Africa) has become a contest between the major powers of the region. Sort of resembles Europe in past centuries where major powers vied for control, except with more chaos and anarchy.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2015, 12:59:33 pm by smjjames »
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Fniff

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This is completely unrelated to the conversation, but I just realized you could sing the title of this thread to the tune of Let's All Go To The Lobby.

Vilanat

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Loud Whispers - I am not sure how you see that as not winning. they are losing just like the vietcong lost the vietnam war. sure, IS might eventually be repelled from Ramadi, which isn't exactly a small town, but a strategically and morally important city, they might kill less than their casualties and they might not succeed taking bases with american forces inside, but they are not fighting a traditional war. they are not going to go heads on against Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey or any of the Western powers, but they don't need to. a vastly inferior organization, both in funding and in personnel managed to take down the WTC.

IS also border Jordan and Lebanon, which are in a real danger by IS as well and they also succeed in Libya.

MonkeyHead - The west will do nothing if IS stop confining itself to the occasional rocket launch from Egypt and Gaza and really attacks israel. the U.N is a joke in everything related to Israel and Israel would be lucky if the UN won't pass a resolution that justifies IS attacks somehow, Israel is not a part of NATO and the U.S will do nothing since they won't be needed. besides, IS will operate in israel using the same tactics Hamas and Fatah do and any reaction from israel will result in the same outcry it has now when they operate against Hamas.
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Loud Whispers

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Loud Whispers - I am not sure how you see that as not winning. they are losing just like the vietcong lost the vietnam war. sure, IS might eventually be repelled from Ramadi, which isn't exactly a small town, but a strategically and morally important city, they might kill less than their casualties and they might not succeed taking bases with american forces inside, but they are not fighting a traditional war. they are not going to go heads on against Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey or any of the Western powers, but they don't need to. a vastly inferior organization, both in funding and in personnel managed to take down the WTC.
Which is a rather fitting comparison, since Osama Bin Laden intended the attacks on the World Trade Center to get the Americans out of the middle east. It is one of history's greatest strategic miscalculations, and is Osama Bin Laden's greatest failure that would ultimately cost him his life. And there's a very important distinction to make between ISIS and the Vietcong - ISIS are the foreign invaders, not the defenders. They are also so unambiguously evil and an existential threat to every regional power and great power that so much has a gaggle of jihadis in it. No one will tire from a war with ISIS the same way the American people tired of war in Vietnam. The choice for the shia, christians, yazidis and other infidels is fighting or death. They've got nothing to lose.

IS also border Jordan and Lebanon, which are in a real danger by IS as well and they also succeed in Libya.
MonkeyHead - The west will do nothing if IS stop confining itself to the occasional rocket launch from Egypt and Gaza and really attacks israel. the U.N is a joke in everything related to Israel and Israel would be lucky if the UN won't pass a resolution that justifies IS attacks somehow, Israel is not a part of NATO and the U.S will do nothing since they won't be needed. besides, IS will operate in israel using the same tactics Hamas and Fatah do and any reaction from israel will result in the same outcry it has now when they operate against Hamas.
The USA would not stand by and do nothing while 400 nuclear warheads fell into ISIS's hands. And that's assuming the Israelis don't threaten to deploy their nukes with their god forsaken sampson option.
Quote
Israel has been building nuclear weapons for 30 years. The Israelis understand what passive and powerless acceptance of doom has meant for them in the past, and they have ensured against it. Masada was not an example to follow—it hurt the Romans not a whit, but Samson in Gaza? What would serve the Jew-hating world better in repayment for thousands of years of massacres but a Nuclear Winter. Or invite all those tut-tutting European statesmen and peace activists to join us in the ovens? For the first time in history, a people facing extermination while the world either cackles or looks away—unlike the Armenians, Tibetans, World War II European Jews or Rwandans—have the power to destroy the world. The ultimate justice?
...
We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
Israel falls, Europe goes down with it. Thanks bibi you are best ally

In regards to Ramadi, you know how that Iraqi base fell because their generals were too incompetent to send air support? IT KEEPS HAPPENING. There's a fair chance they're criminally incompetent or actively undermining the Iraqi resistance on purpose. Nevertheless, the Iraqi forces are severing Jihadi supply lines to Ramadi. They will retake it until they're ordered out again. In regards to Jordan, they should not have pissed off their warrior King. Jordan is unified in hatred of their vile existence, and ISIS will have to not only reverse the Jordanian offensive before they can even think of attacking their homeland, they will also have to reverse the flow of Obamabux to Jordan. They tried to provoke Jordanian Muslims into conflict with their fellow countrymen, they failed. Libya is a mess of rebels. One must also not forget that ISIS is not good friends with its jihadi cousins, and they are fighting to the death for control of their holy war.

Really, the war against ISIS is not being decisively won because of any of their merit. It's because the Sunnis and the Jews eye the Shia militia with distrust, the Turks eye the Kurd militia with distrust, the Coalition does not strike ISIS HQ in Syria (which is like killing the leaves in Iraq without pulling the roots in Syria) and no one is particularly eager to die for Iraq or Syria. With exception to foreign volunteers, there's bloodlust and revenge in the minds of many of ISIS's enemies. And they're very good at making lots of powerful enemies.

Nick K

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Quote
Israel has been building nuclear weapons for 30 years. The Israelis understand what passive and powerless acceptance of doom has meant for them in the past, and they have ensured against it. Masada was not an example to follow—it hurt the Romans not a whit, but Samson in Gaza? What would serve the Jew-hating world better in repayment for thousands of years of massacres but a Nuclear Winter. Or invite all those tut-tutting European statesmen and peace activists to join us in the ovens? For the first time in history, a people facing extermination while the world either cackles or looks away—unlike the Armenians, Tibetans, World War II European Jews or Rwandans—have the power to destroy the world. The ultimate justice?
...
We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
Israel falls, Europe goes down with it. Thanks bibi you are best ally

Neither of those quotes are from Israeli government representatives - a Jewish-American professor and an Israeli military historian. Van Creveld sounds like a nutjob, at least from that quote. I doubt he would have such detailed inside information as to know where Israel target their missiles and I find it very hard to believe that Israel would launch WMDs at neutral European countries as a response to being attacked by ISIS.
I don't see how ISIS could seriously threaten Israel, which has a strong modern military. At worst they could carry out some atrocities and murder a bunch of people, but actually invading the country? No chance.
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Vilanat

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It's also a good example of how a tiny group can affect the lives of hundreds of millions. you see it as a failure but it had cost the american tax payers hundreds of billions. do you really think Osama bin laden had planned for the U.S to get out within two months or even two years? he knew its impossible even in the dull aspect of logistics. i highly recommend you read their long term strategy plans. Back in 2005 it was regarded as speculative at best and conspiracy at worst, but now its simply what it is. a very telling text of their vision. (look at their meaning of the "world" as their world, not the entire globe. they will not really attempt to conquer the U.S or China, Although they would have liked that, but i am not sure Europe should sit on their asses and think themselves safe). they have might (Possibly) failed as a group, but as a movement they are succeeding now in the form of IS, Al Nusra, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis and many other smaller and bigger organizations. they have not lost, they are still winning.

IS are not the foreigners. the Yizidis, the Druz, the Christians and to some extent the Shias are the foreigners. You are not looking at it from the perspective of an Islamic state. in that state, your origin as an american is not important so long as you share their goals, ideals and code of conduct. not to mention that real foreigners makes around 10% of their force. they are still mostly middle eastern.

IS fired two rockets into israel from Gaza just today and israel didn't bomb the world with nukes. in fact, if it will even lightly respond to those attacks, you will start seeing even more calls to punish israel. IS, just like Hamas and Fatah had (and still do), don't currently operate like a proper state or army so those comparisons to Jordan's strength or Israel's strength are not in place. they don't need to drive their Hum-vees into the jordanian borders to start a war with Jordan, they just need to instigate the sunni-palestinian population majority by criticizing the government positive stance toward Israel and by playing on the economic conditions in Jordan which could get bad due to the refugees toll. yeah, they might have failed once or twice doing that, but that doesn't mean they don't have the conditions to eventually (Eventually, as in, not too far in the future) succeed. as with Israel, they also don't need to go heads on against Israel, they just need to fire a few rockets and stab a few kids here and there and let BDS and other anti-semitic/anti-zionist organizations do what they do with the backings of gullible americans and europeans when israel dare to defend itself.
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Sheb

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Great, I'm an anti-semite now.
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Vilanat

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Could be just gullible :p
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Loud Whispers

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Neither of those quotes are from Israeli government representatives
Why would Israeli government representatives detail anything about their nuclear doctrine when they don't even acknowledge their nuclear arsenal even exists.

Van Creveld sounds like a nutjob, at least from that quote. I doubt he would have such detailed inside information as to know where Israel target their missiles and I find it very hard to believe that Israel would launch WMDs at neutral European countries as a response to being attacked by ISIS.
Don't need to in order to have a credible threat to force the US into intervening, and make an attack on their state as much their problem as theirs.

I don't see how ISIS could seriously threaten Israel, which has a strong modern military. At worst they could carry out some atrocities and murder a bunch of people, but actually invading the country? No chance.
Without a doubt. That won't stop American intervention at any rate, which is what MonkeyHead was originally referring to - not whether ISIS had the military capability to conquer Jerusalem or not, but that if they even so much as gave an angry look at Tel Aviv there'd be a massive American taskforce conjured from thin air at a moment's notice.

It's also a good example of how a tiny group can affect the lives of hundreds of millions. you see it as a failure but it had cost the american tax payers hundreds of billions. do you really think Osama bin laden had planned for the U.S to get out within two months or even two years? he knew its impossible even in the dull aspect of logistics. i highly recommend you read their long term strategy plans. Back in 2005 it was regarded as speculative at best and conspiracy at worst, but now its simply what it is. a very telling text of their vision. (look at their meaning of the "world" as their world, not the entire globe. they will not really attempt to conquer the U.S or China, Although they would have liked that, but i am not sure Europe should sit on their asses and think themselves safe). they have might (Possibly) failed as a group, but as a movement they are succeeding now in the form of IS, Al Nusra, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis and many other smaller and bigger organizations. they have not lost, they are still winning.
Several tens of thousands of loyal footmen killed, his own nation ruined, his own cause embittered with even more extreme zealots, his lieutenants dwindling and the American forces replaced with skies of drones and local proxy forces.
Gj Laden, if that's him winning then let them win until they die.

IS are not the foreigners. the Yizidis, the Druz, the Christians and to some extent the Shias are the foreigners. You are not looking at it from the perspective of an Islamic state. in that state, your origin as an american is not important so long as you share their goals, ideals and code of conduct. not to mention that real foreigners makes around 10% of their force. they are still mostly middle eastern.
Al-Nusra fighters, when they radio each other, use code names of birds. When ISIS fighters radio each other, they use their family name, name and which nation they're from. The CIA estimate ISIS has 31,500 soldiers. Up to 20,000 of those are foreigners. Thousands alone come from Western European nations like the UK, France, Germany and Belgium. They are the foreigners because they are not from there. That is literally the definition of foreign.

IS fired two rockets into israel from Gaza just today and israel didn't bomb the world with nukes. in fact, if it will even lightly respond to those attacks, you will start seeing even more calls to punish israel. IS, just like Hamas and Fatah had (and still do), don't currently operate like a proper state or army so those comparisons to Jordan's strength or Israel's strength are not in place. they don't need to drive their Hum-vees into the jordanian borders to start a war with Jordan, they just need to instigate the sunni-palestinian population majority by criticizing the government positive stance toward Israel and by playing on the economic conditions in Jordan which could get bad due to the refugees toll. yeah, they might have failed once or twice doing that, but that doesn't mean they don't have the conditions to eventually (Eventually, as in, not too far in the future) succeed. as with Israel, they also don't need to go heads on against Israel, they just need to fire a few rockets and stab a few kids here and there and let BDS and other anti-semitic/anti-zionist organizations do what they do with the backings of gullible americans and europeans when israel dare to defend itself.
They're already at war with Jordan and Jordan is already flattening them with copious amounts of explosive ordnance. When they burned that pilot alive they expected the Jordanian government to crack down on its muslims and provoke civil war. Instead, their King called upon all - Muslim and Christian to fight ISIS. That call was answered. ISIS played their gambit and it backfired, the only thing holding Jordan back is their refugee crisis.
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