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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 194577 times)

smjjames

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Quite likely. The easiest way to get rid of Kurdi statehood is to have them first be overrun then liberated.

Wouldn't that be the best way to attain Kurdi statehood rather than prevent it (or 'get rid of' as you say)?
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10ebbor10

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They're quasi independent now. Erasing said structure allows you to remake  Iraq.
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MonkeyHead

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Quite likely. The easiest way to get rid of Kurdi statehood is to have them first be overrun then liberated.

Wouldn't that be the best way to attain Kurdi statehood rather than prevent it (or 'get rid of' as you say)?

Nah...

If, as it seems, the Kurds do a decent job of standing up to ISIS in their little corner of Iraq, then manage to gain control of larger areas if US strikes dent ISIS considering the lack of a decent Iraqi armed forces, the Kurds stand in a very strong position to claim a state through gained credibility and squatters rights, so to speak. If ISIS were to overrun Kurdish territory, and the Iraqi armed forces acted to liberate them, then not only do the Kurds lose face and power, but Iraq can claim de facto control of the territory.
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Leafsnail

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The Kurds have been pushed back so far, mainly because IS advances at such an insane rate.  Hopefully the US air strikes will force them to slow down and allow their opponents to regroup.
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alway

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Left to their own devices, I suspect ISIS would collapse within the next 2 years. By the sounds of it, it's not the most stable of groups, consisting of temporary backstabby alliances between enemies who hate each other almost as much as anyone else. Beyond that, Iran really doesn't like them, and I doubt they would tolerate ISIS next door; nor would anyone object to them destroying ISIS. As much as anything else, US involvement would actually be aimed at thwarting Iran in the long term
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cikulisu

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normally i'm not jingoistic and kind of abhor the military industral complex and it's baggage, but to be honest after watching some liveleak, i'm not terribly concerned about IS(IS)(IL)'s imminent explosion. i just hope no one else gets hurt in the process.
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FearfulJesuit

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ISIS isn't a functional long-term state, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be stopped. It's beheading five-year-olds for apostasy, for crying out loud.

As for its long-term prospects: if ISIS had stopped at the "Iraq and Syria" part, it might have had a shot. However, it's now hell-bent on being the sole ruler of Islam. We'll see how long it lasts.

If nothing else, the situation is ironic: a Turkish official has gone on record saying that the only thing protecting Turkey from ISIS is the Kurds, and if anyone is going to step in and save the day it will probably be a joint American-Iranian operation.
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DJ

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I don't see how they're that much different than the Taliban, and those managed to consolidate pretty good. IS is a very real threat and we shouldn't just stick our heads in the sand and wait for it to blow over. And since no Western country seems to be willing to do much about it, we should petition the Pope to declare a Crusade :P
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tuypo1

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I don't see how they're that much different than the Taliban, and those managed to consolidate pretty good. IS is a very real threat and we shouldn't just stick our heads in the sand and wait for it to blow over. And since no Western country seems to be willing to do much about it, we should petition the Pope to declare a Crusade :P
I am in favour of this both as a joke and seriously it really may be the only way to fix the problem it's not ideal though so I suggest we give it a year to see if anybody deals with it non religiously
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DJ

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At least it might get some of the Mexican youth that wind up in gangs to stop killing fellow Christians. It could also reduce the number of biggots in USA, but alas American fundies would never have anything to do with the Pope.
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Sheb

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From what I understand:
Iraq = Weak Army, never recovered its strength after US invasion, despite US sponsored advising and training.
ISIS = One of the rebel factions in Syria.  Syria focused on destroying the other rebel factions.  (Or the others were just much easier to hamstring.)  Which in part allowed ISIS to flourish, possibly absorbing some of the lesser rebel factions into its own, while further weakening the others with rebel infighting.

ISIS actually started in Iraq in 2003 fighting the American. They then hopped across the bordering Syria, where Assad was happy to focus on the others rebels and let ISIS grow so he could say "Look what would happen if I leave" to the international community. They grew in Syria, then made a big comeback to Iraq recently.
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martinuzz

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I think a lot of well-paid advisors are all underestimating the threat. They think they are dealing with riff-raff. They are not. They are dealing with experienced war veterans from multiple conflicts in the area, strenghtened by soldiers who had western military training, and are professionals in using modern weaponry. Just one example; there's this guy from the Netherlands. He served 4 years or somesuch in the Dutch army, and is now happy to share his knowledge about how to operate the western tanks, artillery and other military pieces of *good* equipment that America bought for the Iraqi army, which left it to ISIS as they either ran away in terror when they heard ISIS was getting close, or got decapitated and their head put on a fence. I'm quite sure he's not the only radicalized muslim who served in one of our own western professional armies, before deciding beheading children and raping women for the glory of their specific type of Allah is more fun.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2014, 05:12:48 pm by martinuzz »
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http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Strife26

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I think that this is a fairly good article for the US perspective.
http://www.havokjournal.com/military/back-to-iraq-put-me-back-in-coach


Iraq has never had an army that's been professional in the modern sense of the word. They've always been super shitty, even when used in the purely oppress their own people role underneath Saddam.
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Zangi

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America goes in to get rid of WMDs which don't exist, but they refuse to go in when a large terrorist organisation is taking over rapidly and seemingly only gaining momentum.

I swear, your politicians have weird priorities.
Well, back then, America was flying high on patriotism. 
Now, you need a terrorist to blow something up and say ISIS or some other did it before it gains back its  'Merricah!  Fuck everyone else!' high.  (Though alternatively, maybe sieging the Iraqi embassy will do it... if not, overrunning it and showing videos of atrocities done to the embassy people will do it...)
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Neonivek

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One thing to remember is that America is demoralized right now.
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