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[Mimodo]

Given that off-camera invasions always succeed, exporting steel weapons won't make a bit of difference.

But, given that invaders coming to your fort come from the actual population of the invading civ, killing lots and lots of invaders might make a difference. Time to start cranking out masterwork gold crafts, just to draw in more attackers.

With people mentioning goblin numbers in the thousands, I doubt it'll happen. With over 11 million wealth right now, I've barely killed enough of those bastards to scratch the surface

[Prudent Viper]

You don't think so? A typical goblin civ normally contains between 5 and 10 thousand citizens. My 11 year fortress is currently receiving 1 to 2 full sized goblin sieges of 60+ per year. With two sieges per year, that means 50 years for a population of 6000, assuming the entire population consists of adults in the military (which is not the case). At about 10 years, you'd start to see site depopulation.

And this process will be sped up by external factors (once invasions are fixed), most prominently the attacks by your civ on the goblins.

This means the player could have a active role in the war. While you might not destroy a goblin civ single handedly, you could weaken them to the point that your civ's army's could destroy them.
So, while a direct effect is a lengthy process (Bad news for "Last Fort" players), an indirect effect is entirely possible provided your civ has a healthy dwarf population.