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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 133605 times)

Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3255 on: February 04, 2015, 12:57:44 pm »

They seem to have a lot of knowledge of these so called false flag attacks. Should "one" now not occur, it would be easy to claim that it did not happen due to the lampshading, even if no such thing was going to occur at all. This could of course either be due to good intel/spying getting wind of genuine plots, or it could be a clever yet weak double bluff. Who the hell knows, right? Call me innocent or naive, but I find it hard to believe that either side would willingly take the horrible risk of killing civilians in order to discredit the other, though the rebels do have previous in this area (that pesky airliner, and other OCED reports, right?).
Well, you have to admit that Kyiv has much more to gain from having its civilians killed than the rebels, that is, if Ukraine can shock the European populace enough, it may get official NATO help and possibly even military intervention. Besides, the last false-flag operation the rebels got wind of really did happen - in Mariupol, those fake rebels I told you about ran around the city's streets for a while, nevertheless failing to catch any significant media attention. And I am sorry, but what do you mean by "the rebels do have previous in this area"? Previous what? Experience? What makes you think that, even if the rebels really are the ones to blame, those incidents were intentional?

And assuming the rebels really do want to loudly blame Kyiv for some dead civilians, why would they need to shoot those civilians themselves in a potentially dangerous framejob scheme, when they can just show the results of the Ukrainian artillery indiscriminately shelling Donbass's cities, towns and villages?

Also, the rebels say they got this data from a captured Ukrainian "Kievan Rus" volunteer battalion officer, in case you want to know.

Also also, you are seriously underestimating how easy it is to kill civilians when you have the proper battlefield mindset and don't know them personally. Pretty much the entire military history of mankind is filled with dead civilians.

Weird when I look at wikipedia the last figure it give is 2.376 million from a 2001 census & an estimate of 2.352 million for 2007. Maybe the Russian language page is more up to date? Anyways that's a drop of about 400 000 from 2007 to 2014, so about the same rate as 65 000 from 2014 to 2015. Any thoughts on why Crimea's pop. is dropping so steadily?
Ukrainian population in general has been dropping at pretty much that rate since the end of the Soviet Union.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:07:41 pm by Knit tie »
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Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3256 on: February 04, 2015, 01:08:53 pm »

That's like the third time he reports on these "false-flag" operations. I've yet to seen them actually happening; or even some picture confirmation of the "false-flag" operators existing.

I'm not sure if they even exist.

So, I'm calling one (1) bullshit.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3257 on: February 04, 2015, 01:11:37 pm »

That's like the third time he reports on these "false-flag" operations. I've yet to seen them actually happening; or even some picture confirmation of the "false-flag" operators existing.

I'm not sure if they even exist.

So, I'm calling one (1) bullshit.
How about we wait and see what happens? For all we know, it can simply be that that "Kievan Rus" guy told his interrogators a bunch of baloney in order to pass off as "cooperative."
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:15:58 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3258 on: February 04, 2015, 01:15:39 pm »

They seem to have a lot of knowledge of these so called false flag attacks. Should "one" now not occur, it would be easy to claim that it did not happen due to the lampshading, even if no such thing was going to occur at all. This could of course either be due to good intel/spying getting wind of genuine plots, or it could be a clever yet weak double bluff. Who the hell knows, right? Call me innocent or naive, but I find it hard to believe that either side would willingly take the horrible risk of killing civilians in order to discredit the other, though the rebels do have previous in this area (that pesky airliner, and other OCED reports, right?).
Well, you have to admit that Kyiv has much more to gain from having its civilians killed than the rebels, that is, if Ukraine can shock the European populace enough, it may get official NATO help and possibly even military intervention. Besides, the last false-flag operation the rebels got wind of really did happen - in Mariupol, those fake rebels I told you about ran around the city's streets for a while, nevertheless failing to catch any significant media attention. And I am sorry, but what do you mean by "the rebels do have previous in this area"? Previous what? Experience?

Also, the rebels say they got this data from a captured Ukrainian volunteer battalion officer, in case you want to know.

Also also, you are seriously underestimating how easy it is to kill civilians when you have the proper battlefield mindset and don't know them personally. Pretty much the entire military history of mankind is filled with dead civilians.

Weird when I look at wikipedia the last figure it give is 2.376 million from a 2001 census & an estimate of 2.352 million for 2007. Maybe the Russian language page is more up to date? Anyways that's a drop of about 400 000 from 2007 to 2014, so about the same rate as 65 000 from 2014 to 2015. Any thoughts on why Crimea's pop. is dropping so steadily?
Ukrainian population in general has been dropping at pretty much that rate since the end of the Soviet Union.

Yes, it may have more to gain from having them killed - by someone else. It has a lot to lose if there is even ANY suspicion that it is killing them itself.

By previous I mean that what evidence that has been brought to the worlds attention and posts made in this thread and others regarding said evidence suggest that the rebels are guilty (or at least more probably guilty) of potentially more acts against non-combatants than the AFU (note, I am not considering them innocent by any stretch of the imagination - artillery in urban combat is going to cause casualties in the populace), be it artillery strikes or the elephant in the room - that shot down airliner. Though, as always, most of this info is far from objective (like the video you linked - of course the NR soldier is going to accuse his enemy), save for the sketchy reports of the observers. One thing is for certain - the whole thing is a mess wrapped in a cluster fuck, and it will be a long time before even the smallest amount of truth emerges from the blind accusations and baseless claims.

So, these fake rebels - did they actually do anything other than running around? I would expect a false flag operation to at least cause a small amount of chaos and destruction rather than just "attention seek". Could that have been a false-false flag operation to try and generate credibility for future claims? Though that way madness lies - considering everything as multiple layers of bluff is just silly.

Captured volunteer? Sucks to be him. Do we have anything more to go on than Cassad's word that this individual exists (probably) and that he said these things (possibly - if he was sufficiently "persuaded") and that they are true (debatable, and probably totally unverifiable)? As you yourself have noted, Cassad's words are not the most objective - possibly at best patriotically propagandist, and possibly at worst blatant lies or misinformation. Heck, it could just be a clever ruse to prevent the AFU dropping any artillery in the area for a while in order to gain some temporary advantage.

Oh, and yes, I have no idea how easy or hard it would be to turn the trigger on a non combatant, and am thankful for that. However, most civilian war casualties are often "collateral damage" - as in, being in the wrong place at the wrong time, not necessarily the intended target, save for a few notable exceptions to this rule.
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MarcAFK

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3259 on: February 04, 2015, 01:18:54 pm »

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
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They're nearly as bad as badgers. Build a couple of anti-buzzard SAM sites marksdwarf towers and your fortress will look like Baghdad in 2003 from all the aerial bolt spam. You waste a lot of ammo and everything is covered in unslightly exploded buzzard bits and broken bolts.

Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3260 on: February 04, 2015, 01:23:25 pm »

About that video, it's not the commentary that matters, it's that there are dead civilians, killed by artillery fire, in a part of a rebel-controlled city, far behind the frontlines, that is devoid of any military targets. There is roughly a bajillion of such videos, pictures and testimonies by the local populace, including the posts on social media, on the internet, and more are appearing every day. Which makes for a rather unfair comparison, I'd say, with, at most, three incidents where the rebels can be said to have shot Ukrainian civilians outside of the immediate engagement area - MH-17, Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
???
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:31:13 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3261 on: February 04, 2015, 01:32:18 pm »

About that video, it's not the commentary that matters, it's that there are dead civilians, killed by artillery fire, in a part of a rebel-controlled city, far behind the frontlines, that is devoid of any military targets. There is roughly a bajillion of such videos, pictures and testimonies by the local populace, including the ones on social media, on the internet, and more are appearing every day. Which makes for a rather unfair comparison, I'd say, with, at most, three incidents where the rebels can be said to have shot Ukrainian civilians outside of the immediate engagement area - MH-17, Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
???

True, but 3 verifiable-ish claims do count for a lot (especially the airliner, for a panthon of reasons) when compared with any number of "very tricky to verify objectively" rebel claims - especially things like "civilian", "devoid of targets", and who makes the social media posts. Don't get me wrong, I am not dismissing that video and the many others out of hand, but the conflict is reaching a stage when any and all events are being described by both sides as pretty much crimes against humanity. For every NR video there is one from the Ukraine side saying the same thing. For every media report or claim there is a counter claim or contradictory report. Such is the nature of such conflicts, and as we all know this only serves to fan the flames. For someone who as shown remarkable objectivity in this thread, it seems to be letting you down a little here ;)

It is easy to paint a nasty picture by declaring places as "far behind the front lines" when people in the video say "not to go there" as it is not in cover, and metal sheeting is seemingly erected in some kind of screen - scrub that, on a re watching the "cover" refers to bodies being covered that we do not get to see despite the claims, and the sheeting seems to be a fence damaged by the shelling. I am sure the AFU is dropping shells where it probably should not be under very weak justifications (as in "anyone is a rebel over there"... dark as that is, right?). If anything, the Rebels have learnt from people like IS just how valuable winning the war on-line can be - plenty of videos like the one you posted can go some way to swaying opinion amongst those inclined for whatever reason to accept their claims.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:44:50 pm by MonkeyHead »
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3262 on: February 04, 2015, 01:38:23 pm »

About that video, it's not the commentary that matters, it's that there are dead civilians, killed by artillery fire, in a part of a rebel-controlled city, far behind the frontlines, that is devoid of any military targets. There is roughly a bajillion of such videos, pictures and testimonies by the local populace, including the ones on social media, on the internet, and more are appearing every day. Which makes for a rather unfair comparison, I'd say, with, at most, three incidents where the rebels can be said to have shot Ukrainian civilians outside of the immediate engagement area - MH-17, Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
???

True, but 3 verifiable-ish claims do count for a lot (especially the airliner, for a panthon of reasons) when compared with any number of "very tricky to verify objectively" rebel claims. I am sure the AFU is dropping shells where it probably should not be under weak justifications (as in anyone is a rebel, dark as that is, right?). If anything, the Rebels have learnt from people like IS just how valuable winning the war on-line can be - plenty of videos like the one you posted can go some way to swaying opinion amongst those inclined for whatever reason to accept their claims.
Well, what other realistic expalnations can you propose for there being so many shellings and so many dead civilians in various rebel-controlled towns all over Donbass for several months already other than the Ukrainian artillery fire being at worst deliberately indiscriminate and at best used with reckless abandon in civilian areas? Especially considering that the civilian areas of Ukrainian-controlled towns near the frontline are being shelled exceptionally rarely? And speaking of verifiablish claims, what about that Volnovakha'd bus in Donetsk?
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 02:00:38 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3263 on: February 04, 2015, 01:51:01 pm »

None - nor am I claiming there to be one. I am sure that there are civilians dying due to the action of the AFU, like the bus you mention appears to be. War is hell, after all. However, if this is down to malice, incompetence, shit intel or really bad decision making I do not know, nor do I make any claims to - unlike those directly involved, who can hardly be expected to make objective claims that are not effected by emotional preclusion. Exactly the same goes for the acts of the NR. I am not inclined to fully trust the claims of the NR videos in exactly the same way I am not inclined to fully trust the justifications for such attacks as given by the AFU. Blame the fact that I have become over accustomed to relying on the BBC for my information.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:58:51 pm by MonkeyHead »
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3264 on: February 04, 2015, 02:00:26 pm »

I agree in general - except my point is that the shellings of Donbass by the Ukrainian army have been going on for long enough, occuring repeatedly enough, and hitting civilian areas often enough for "deliberate scorched-earth tactics or complete indifference towards collateral damage" to start becoming the most likely explanation for them. You can't recieve shit intel, make bad decisions or aim incompetently so many times in a row.

Also, if you want to see some uncensored dead civilians in Donbass. That's at least a Volnovakha's worth of corpses there.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 02:07:19 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3265 on: February 04, 2015, 02:14:24 pm »

Unsurprisingly, I am going to remain agnostic on the matter until I have a lot more, and a lot better, to go on than the current information a our disposal. I can not intellectually honestly come to a conclusion based almost solely on evidence based around appeals to emotion provided by those that have apparently been wronged, for fairly obvious reasons.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 02:29:17 pm by MonkeyHead »
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3266 on: February 04, 2015, 02:47:51 pm »

Another thing is that all of the "it wasn't malice" excuses you said apply to the AFU also apply to the rebels as well - I don't see how OSCE-analysed collateral damage is supposed to be worse in this regard than vanilla collateral damage. I mean, all that destruction in Gorlivka had to come from somewhere, and how do you suggest this is less damning of the AFU than Mariupol is damning of the rebels?
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RedKing

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3267 on: February 04, 2015, 03:03:18 pm »

One explanation I've heard recently is that both the Ukrainians and the rebels are using old Soviet artillery and Grad rocket artillery, which were designed for use against massed concentrations of enemy forces in a hypothetical NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict. So they're inaccurate as fuck and designed to drop maximum payload in broad zone of fire.

Yes, using such a weapon in and around civilian centers is indiscriminate and reckless, and has been called such by international monitors recently, blaming both sides. Which seems pretty accurate (no pun intended).
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3268 on: February 04, 2015, 03:20:47 pm »

Except that the GRADs can still be aimed at general areas, and the AFU aim them at civilian ones in Donbass, and the artillery used by the AFU is not limited to GRADs or other MLRS systems anyway, but this discussion is rather pointless at this point, I agree.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 03:54:36 pm by Knit tie »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3269 on: February 04, 2015, 04:07:31 pm »

Can you, lying scum, give a single proof of Ukrainian army Using Grads on civilian targets? We know you can't
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