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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 239406 times)

Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3255 on: February 04, 2015, 10:50:54 am »

Judging by the mobilization statistics, it's likely that there was in fact an influx of Ukrainians in Crimea.

Because for some reason people love running away to the "aggressor country".

Makes a hell of a lot more sense to move out of a warzone then into one.
They could've moved out into Europe. For some reason almost nobody did.
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XXSockXX

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3256 on: February 04, 2015, 11:30:34 am »

They could've moved out into Europe. For some reason almost nobody did.
Because they'd get deported as illegal immigrants.

If you think about it, Crimea is quite easy to immigrate to, no language barrier, shaky legal status (therefore probably almost no legal hassle with immigration from Ukraine compared to Ukraine's other neighbour states), unlikely to be a warzone in the near future due to heavy Russian military presence.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3257 on: February 04, 2015, 12:12:54 pm »

shaky legal status (therefore probably almost no legal hassle with immigration from Ukraine compared to Ukraine's other neighbour states).
Russian border service disagrees with you and demands to see your papers.

But speaking of population movement in and out of Crimea, the official census, according to Wikipedia, states that there were 1,958,504 people in the beginning of 2014 and 1,893,245 people in the beginning of 2015 in Crimea. Even if we assume that the difference between those two numbers is entirely due to pro-Ukrainians fleeing the now pro-Russian peninsula, that's still less than 1% of the population.
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MarcAFK

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3258 on: February 04, 2015, 12:18:32 pm »

shaky legal status (therefore probably almost no legal hassle with immigration from Ukraine compared to Ukraine's other neighbour states).
Russian border service disagrees with you and demands to see your papers.

But speaking of population movement in and out of Crimea, the official census, according to Wikipedia, states that there were 1,958,504 people in the beginning of 2014 and 1,893,245 people in the beginning of 2015 in Crimea. Even if we assume that the difference between those two numbers is entirely due to pro-Ukrainians fleeing the now pro-Russian peninsula, that's still less than 1% of the population.
3.3% actually
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Sheb

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3259 on: February 04, 2015, 12:26:14 pm »

Well, Russia found itself with a region full of Ukrainian citizens joining the Federation. I guess it wouldn't be that hard for an out-of-Crimea Ukrainian to quickly come in and get its Russian citizenship.

That way, it is possible that the overall population changed little, while significant amount of people moved in and out.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3260 on: February 04, 2015, 12:39:25 pm »

shaky legal status (therefore probably almost no legal hassle with immigration from Ukraine compared to Ukraine's other neighbour states).
Russian border service disagrees with you and demands to see your papers.

But speaking of population movement in and out of Crimea, the official census, according to Wikipedia, states that there were 1,958,504 people in the beginning of 2014 and 1,893,245 people in the beginning of 2015 in Crimea. Even if we assume that the difference between those two numbers is entirely due to pro-Ukrainians fleeing the now pro-Russian peninsula, that's still less than 1% of the population.
3.3% actually
Damn, I suck at math.

Anyway, Col. Cassad warns his readers that Kyiv is preparing another false-flag operation: in a few days, a bus with refugees departing from Debaltsevo will be destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire in order to blame and discredit the rebels on the upcoming Munich conference.

Well, Russia found itself with a region full of Ukrainian citizens joining the Federation. I guess it wouldn't be that hard for an out-of-Crimea Ukrainian to quickly come in and get its Russian citizenship.

That way, it is possible that the overall population changed little, while significant amount of people moved in and out.

And this is said by a man who keeps calling me a conspiracy theorist and putting the Occam's razor to my throat every time I do not accept the simplest explanation.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 12:46:06 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3261 on: February 04, 2015, 12:43:44 pm »

They seem to have a lot of knowledge of these so called false flag attacks. Should "one" now not occur, it would be easy to claim that it did not happen due to the lampshading, even if no such thing was going to occur at all. This could of course either be due to good intel/spying getting wind of genuine plots, or it could be a clever yet weak double bluff. Who the hell knows, right? Call me innocent or naive, but I find it hard to believe that either side would willingly take the horrible risk of killing civilians in order to discredit the other, though the rebels do have previous in this area (that pesky airliner, and other OCED reports, right?).
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wobbly

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3262 on: February 04, 2015, 12:49:27 pm »

Weird when I look at wikipedia the last figure it give is 2.376 million from a 2001 census & an estimate of 2.352 million for 2007. Maybe the Russian language page is more up to date? Anyways that's a drop of about 400 000 from 2007 to 2014, so about the same rate as 65 000 from 2014 to 2015. Any thoughts on why Crimea's pop. is dropping so steadily?
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3263 on: February 04, 2015, 12:51:42 pm »

Lots of Eastern European countries are seeing fairly large numbers of migrants moving to Western Europe. It is not that much of a stretch to think that more people will more from the poorer areas than the affluent ones... *shrugs*
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3264 on: February 04, 2015, 12:57:44 pm »

They seem to have a lot of knowledge of these so called false flag attacks. Should "one" now not occur, it would be easy to claim that it did not happen due to the lampshading, even if no such thing was going to occur at all. This could of course either be due to good intel/spying getting wind of genuine plots, or it could be a clever yet weak double bluff. Who the hell knows, right? Call me innocent or naive, but I find it hard to believe that either side would willingly take the horrible risk of killing civilians in order to discredit the other, though the rebels do have previous in this area (that pesky airliner, and other OCED reports, right?).
Well, you have to admit that Kyiv has much more to gain from having its civilians killed than the rebels, that is, if Ukraine can shock the European populace enough, it may get official NATO help and possibly even military intervention. Besides, the last false-flag operation the rebels got wind of really did happen - in Mariupol, those fake rebels I told you about ran around the city's streets for a while, nevertheless failing to catch any significant media attention. And I am sorry, but what do you mean by "the rebels do have previous in this area"? Previous what? Experience? What makes you think that, even if the rebels really are the ones to blame, those incidents were intentional?

And assuming the rebels really do want to loudly blame Kyiv for some dead civilians, why would they need to shoot those civilians themselves in a potentially dangerous framejob scheme, when they can just show the results of the Ukrainian artillery indiscriminately shelling Donbass's cities, towns and villages?

Also, the rebels say they got this data from a captured Ukrainian "Kievan Rus" volunteer battalion officer, in case you want to know.

Also also, you are seriously underestimating how easy it is to kill civilians when you have the proper battlefield mindset and don't know them personally. Pretty much the entire military history of mankind is filled with dead civilians.

Weird when I look at wikipedia the last figure it give is 2.376 million from a 2001 census & an estimate of 2.352 million for 2007. Maybe the Russian language page is more up to date? Anyways that's a drop of about 400 000 from 2007 to 2014, so about the same rate as 65 000 from 2014 to 2015. Any thoughts on why Crimea's pop. is dropping so steadily?
Ukrainian population in general has been dropping at pretty much that rate since the end of the Soviet Union.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:07:41 pm by Knit tie »
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Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3265 on: February 04, 2015, 01:08:53 pm »

That's like the third time he reports on these "false-flag" operations. I've yet to seen them actually happening; or even some picture confirmation of the "false-flag" operators existing.

I'm not sure if they even exist.

So, I'm calling one (1) bullshit.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3266 on: February 04, 2015, 01:11:37 pm »

That's like the third time he reports on these "false-flag" operations. I've yet to seen them actually happening; or even some picture confirmation of the "false-flag" operators existing.

I'm not sure if they even exist.

So, I'm calling one (1) bullshit.
How about we wait and see what happens? For all we know, it can simply be that that "Kievan Rus" guy told his interrogators a bunch of baloney in order to pass off as "cooperative."
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:15:58 pm by Knit tie »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3267 on: February 04, 2015, 01:15:39 pm »

They seem to have a lot of knowledge of these so called false flag attacks. Should "one" now not occur, it would be easy to claim that it did not happen due to the lampshading, even if no such thing was going to occur at all. This could of course either be due to good intel/spying getting wind of genuine plots, or it could be a clever yet weak double bluff. Who the hell knows, right? Call me innocent or naive, but I find it hard to believe that either side would willingly take the horrible risk of killing civilians in order to discredit the other, though the rebels do have previous in this area (that pesky airliner, and other OCED reports, right?).
Well, you have to admit that Kyiv has much more to gain from having its civilians killed than the rebels, that is, if Ukraine can shock the European populace enough, it may get official NATO help and possibly even military intervention. Besides, the last false-flag operation the rebels got wind of really did happen - in Mariupol, those fake rebels I told you about ran around the city's streets for a while, nevertheless failing to catch any significant media attention. And I am sorry, but what do you mean by "the rebels do have previous in this area"? Previous what? Experience?

Also, the rebels say they got this data from a captured Ukrainian volunteer battalion officer, in case you want to know.

Also also, you are seriously underestimating how easy it is to kill civilians when you have the proper battlefield mindset and don't know them personally. Pretty much the entire military history of mankind is filled with dead civilians.

Weird when I look at wikipedia the last figure it give is 2.376 million from a 2001 census & an estimate of 2.352 million for 2007. Maybe the Russian language page is more up to date? Anyways that's a drop of about 400 000 from 2007 to 2014, so about the same rate as 65 000 from 2014 to 2015. Any thoughts on why Crimea's pop. is dropping so steadily?
Ukrainian population in general has been dropping at pretty much that rate since the end of the Soviet Union.

Yes, it may have more to gain from having them killed - by someone else. It has a lot to lose if there is even ANY suspicion that it is killing them itself.

By previous I mean that what evidence that has been brought to the worlds attention and posts made in this thread and others regarding said evidence suggest that the rebels are guilty (or at least more probably guilty) of potentially more acts against non-combatants than the AFU (note, I am not considering them innocent by any stretch of the imagination - artillery in urban combat is going to cause casualties in the populace), be it artillery strikes or the elephant in the room - that shot down airliner. Though, as always, most of this info is far from objective (like the video you linked - of course the NR soldier is going to accuse his enemy), save for the sketchy reports of the observers. One thing is for certain - the whole thing is a mess wrapped in a cluster fuck, and it will be a long time before even the smallest amount of truth emerges from the blind accusations and baseless claims.

So, these fake rebels - did they actually do anything other than running around? I would expect a false flag operation to at least cause a small amount of chaos and destruction rather than just "attention seek". Could that have been a false-false flag operation to try and generate credibility for future claims? Though that way madness lies - considering everything as multiple layers of bluff is just silly.

Captured volunteer? Sucks to be him. Do we have anything more to go on than Cassad's word that this individual exists (probably) and that he said these things (possibly - if he was sufficiently "persuaded") and that they are true (debatable, and probably totally unverifiable)? As you yourself have noted, Cassad's words are not the most objective - possibly at best patriotically propagandist, and possibly at worst blatant lies or misinformation. Heck, it could just be a clever ruse to prevent the AFU dropping any artillery in the area for a while in order to gain some temporary advantage.

Oh, and yes, I have no idea how easy or hard it would be to turn the trigger on a non combatant, and am thankful for that. However, most civilian war casualties are often "collateral damage" - as in, being in the wrong place at the wrong time, not necessarily the intended target, save for a few notable exceptions to this rule.
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MarcAFK

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3268 on: February 04, 2015, 01:18:54 pm »

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3269 on: February 04, 2015, 01:23:25 pm »

About that video, it's not the commentary that matters, it's that there are dead civilians, killed by artillery fire, in a part of a rebel-controlled city, far behind the frontlines, that is devoid of any military targets. There is roughly a bajillion of such videos, pictures and testimonies by the local populace, including the posts on social media, on the internet, and more are appearing every day. Which makes for a rather unfair comparison, I'd say, with, at most, three incidents where the rebels can be said to have shot Ukrainian civilians outside of the immediate engagement area - MH-17, Volnovakha and Mariupol.

Jet fuel can't melt steel! Wake up sheeple, it was the reptilians all along.
???
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 01:31:13 pm by Knit tie »
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