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Author Topic: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!  (Read 127002 times)

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1560 on: March 01, 2015, 06:44:43 pm »

Mebbe, but what I did ended up with you being lynched so eh~~~

Like I said, I probably wouldn't have pushed so hard without a stronger case, but we were in a mislynch/nolynch = Victory situation.
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notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1561 on: March 01, 2015, 06:47:33 pm »

Well, I played a lousy game. Buuuut, I should probably use this to learn something. What parts of the analysis were solid? I shouldn't have assumed all scum had active roles. Rule #1 is don't expect anyone to behave like perfectly rational agents.

I got one thing right: 2 of the four players who had formed the least amount of cases were in fact scum. Tiruin & Jim were town that gave false positives here though. And it gave Deus the all-clear. And lynching Tiruin lost the game. But I already knew it was a better metric for distinguishing good town players from poor town/scum.

The off-lynch votes metric was worthless. Or maybe not. Each of the scum had a completely different lynch pattern... which confirms the general rule that scum tend to pursue different targets come lynch-time.

I've got a feeling that if I'd had time to do a serious analysis of interactions in the game, I'd be able to rule out more of the scum teams and my suspicions of ZU/Jim/Tiruin might have been greatly lessened. I don't know though. Maybe see next game.

I did figure out a plan to signal to the town from deadchat that they should lynch UXLZ, but I never thought I had any reason to put it into effect.

In previous games I made colour-coded tables of people's suspicions. A post-game analysis on the games in which I did that has proved them to be completely useless in spotting scum, so that's why I didn't do it in this game.

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1562 on: March 01, 2015, 06:52:14 pm »

Mebbe, but what I did ended up with you being lynched so eh~~~
Nobody else seemed to care? :I

Well, I played a lousy game. Buuuut, I should probably use this to learn something. What parts of the analysis were solid? I shouldn't have assumed all scum had active roles. Rule #1 is don't expect anyone to behave like perfectly rational agents.
Not the judgement by activity -_-
Its the context IN that activity that makes it scummy. If there's any RL precedence mentioned, then assume it is valid and over a higher priority than the present assumption.
There's a limit to how far scum can lie to be "active lurking".
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notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1563 on: March 01, 2015, 06:58:46 pm »

So you threw me off a bit. I knew you were having internet problems, but even when you were posting and able to quote people at length you rarely voted anyone. And your explanations didn't really assuage my fears as I've played enough games with you where you're scum and you're still completely outraged by my technique.

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1564 on: March 01, 2015, 07:02:42 pm »

Quote from: NQT
I did figure out a plan to signal to the town from deadchat that they should lynch UXLZ, but I never thought I had any reason to put it into effect.

Oh? Pray tell. I'm curious as to if it's something I could have detected.

Besides, my role as a medium was played flawlessly. :v
Hence the lack of reasons to use it, I guess...

@Tiruin: I believe this has been stated many times before, but it wasn't your lack of activity or claim to bad net that made people view you as scummy, it was what you did despite that.

Quote from: Tiruin
Nobody else seemed to care? :I

It let me park my vote on you without anyone seeing it as suspicious? ('Cept you, maybe, but that didn't matter.)

Quote from: NQT
The off-lynch votes metric was worthless. Or maybe not. Each of the scum had a completely different lynch pattern... which confirms the general rule that scum tend to pursue different targets come lynch-time.

You sure 'bout that? Pretty sure I tended to share a vote target with Deus.
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notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1565 on: March 01, 2015, 07:09:04 pm »

You sure 'bout that? Pretty sure I tended to share a vote target with Deus.
You didn't on N2. So the three of you didn't ALL vote the lynch target and nor did the three of you stay off the lynch every night. You were on the lynch every day, Deus two of the days, Toaster none of the days (of the 3 days I looked at).

Tiruin

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1566 on: March 01, 2015, 07:32:43 pm »

[...]I've played enough games with you where you're scum and you're still completely outraged by my technique.
...Because there was a lacking substance behind your reasons on why I'm scummy? That there was a lacking 'why' towards 'my lack of activity despite posting' and the lacking 'why' behind 'there is no vote'?

Quote from: UXLZ
[...]it was what you did despite that.
And you don't think I've been mentioning that instead of what was first presumed before until now?

My crux is this: Whatever scummy thing y'all had on me, is that it is all left assumed. -_-

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UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1567 on: March 01, 2015, 08:12:17 pm »

Aside from your flagrant FTDs, mebbe.

Oh, that's what you mean, NQT.
Was there anyone else who shared my voting pattern?

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notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1568 on: March 01, 2015, 08:28:42 pm »

Yes, plenty of town players were also always on the lynch (so on its own it's a null tell).

My plan was to hide a message to the town in one post (probably just 'UXLZ'), and then get into a conversation with someone through you, and when the convo was sufficiently involved and you were enough in the habit of just passing on my messages, in the midst of a WOT quote-pyramid chain, I'd mention my role breadcrumbing, and say I'd breadcrumbed other things in other posts and give the number of the post with the UXLZ clue. I'd then *immediately* swamp you with about half a dozen messages to loads of different players to reduce the likelihood of you reading through each one super-carefully. It wouldn't have been foolproof, but I thought it might work.

Another way would be to promise the town updates from me at fixed regular intervals, and I'd half-jokingly say that if I stopped talking then you should definitely lynch UXLZ, and then I'd keep to those intervals and then stop and post elsewhere on the mafia board at exactly those intervals.

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1569 on: March 01, 2015, 08:36:14 pm »

Eh, I think the second one probably would have worked, the first one definitely wouldn't have. I read through all of your stuff quite carefully.

The second one working is also a bit eh~~~, in that conceptually it would work but even if you updated stuff at fixed intervals... That doesn't mean I'm going to. (I mean, our timezones are dissonant anyway.)

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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1570 on: March 01, 2015, 08:45:12 pm »

It'd work if the fixed interval was "daily by x time", and then every time you'd post after that time it'd raise the question of whether you'd received anything. I should have been more distrusting from the start...

Why did Cheese perform the N1 kill anyway?

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1571 on: March 01, 2015, 08:48:24 pm »

Yeah, you and Cheeetar got swayed soooooooo easily by my PMs. XD (Though I believe it helps that your metrics said I was town at the time anyway.)
I chose to reveal to you two in particular for a reason, y'know.

Cheese did the NK 'cause least important role.

Medium - Deadchat OP
Guardian - OP
Enchanter - Surprise early victory
Obs Guard - ??? (no benefit.)
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 08:50:09 pm by UXLZ »
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notquitethere

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1572 on: March 01, 2015, 09:15:36 pm »

Ah, that makes sense I guess.

When I was dead I was too trusting, but before that I just put on a friendly air. Almost every player claimed something about  their roles to me before N2 so the attitude worked. I wish I had been playing an alien after all.

UXLZ

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1573 on: March 01, 2015, 09:24:14 pm »

Ah, that makes sense I guess.

When I was dead I was too trusting, but before that I just put on a friendly air. Almost every player claimed something about  their roles to me before N2 so the attitude worked. I wish I had been playing an alien after all.

Friendly air or no, you never even mentioned me as a suspect in your later reads post. Since you seemed to trust me it seemed like a good idea for a N2 kill.
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Ahhh~ She looked into your eyes,
And saw what laid beneath,
Don't try to save yourself,
The circle is complete.

Toaster

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Re: Paranormal 24 - Game over! Doppelganger Victory!
« Reply #1574 on: March 01, 2015, 09:27:33 pm »

The off-lynch votes metric was worthless. Or maybe not. Each of the scum had a completely different lynch pattern... which confirms the general rule that scum tend to pursue different targets come lynch-time.

I think that is meta-centric; that's something I do regardless of alignment.

You sure 'bout that? Pretty sure I tended to share a vote target with Deus.
You didn't on N2. So the three of you didn't ALL vote the lynch target and nor did the three of you stay off the lynch every night. You were on the lynch every day, Deus two of the days, Toaster none of the days (of the 3 days I looked at).

I wasn't on it D4 either because nobody noticed I never voted.


The active role theory assumed we had useful active roles.  I would have rather Deus guarded the killer more, but since he had been coordinating his protect already, he was boxed into doing that.  In the long run, I think giving Deus that much towncred was worth the loss of Mastahcheese.
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