Psieye describes the same method as I use to locate caverns and the sea.
Yes, there is always a risk of being unlucky when breaching a cavern or the sea, and there isn't anything you can do about that (well, you can save scum or cheat to view where everything is using DFHack, of course).
Psieye's method of probing is about as safe as you can make probing. You can increase the safety to the fortress by having a drawbridge block off access to the probing tunnel(s) in an emergency, and sacrifice the miner if need be. You have to be quite unlucky to get attacked immediately. Also, be aware of the leaking up/down staircases, where critters can enter an up/down staircase (and probably a down only one as well as roofless obsidian tiles) diagonally from below if the tile beneath the staircase is rock, but one beside it isn't. Detecting magma crabs crawling around in your tunnel when the digging was broken off because it hit semi molten rock and you haven't even discovered the magma sea is an unpleasant surprise. After advice from the forum, I've also changed my breach plugging technique from building a floor to an Up staircase directly in the stairwell to get a floor in as well as a means for the builder to get up, without any need for additional digging.
To actually settle in unprotected caverns is more dangerous than settling unprotected on the surface, because the nasty cavern critters are generally a lot worse than the surface ones, and I don't think FBs adhere to any pop level limits before they start to appear (Titans don't start to appear until your pop is 80, unless you change that world generation parameter). However, undead ignore pop levels as well, so settling on the surface near a black tower might be worse than settling in an unprotected cavern.
As to the actual question of how many soldiers you need to settle in an unprotected cavern, the answer is as many as you can get, and that might not be enough, but you can get lucky and get by with just a few. Also, anything that sets the vegetation on fire is bad news to any dorfs who are close to that vegetation or might get close to it, since they have no sense of self preservation concerning fire (FBs, fire imps, ...). If your settlement is nestled in that vegetation you could be in trouble.