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Author Topic: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)  (Read 187985 times)

Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1875 on: September 30, 2021, 09:42:46 am »

tfw ur license plate is not heckin cute and valid

Starver

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1876 on: October 01, 2021, 05:48:23 pm »

(Still not sure how to respond to that. Just saying, so you don't think I am. But thanks for not making this a double-post.)

The funny side of fuel-shortages...

Well, I (double-)belly laughed at it.

And, seriously, I doubt the tanker had a "3YE" Hazchem EIP label (probably "1T", which is obviously not fuel of any kind), let alone be a "1203" for petrol.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1877 on: October 04, 2021, 04:30:14 am »

Ducks following the leader

martinuzz

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1878 on: October 04, 2021, 03:39:25 pm »

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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1879 on: October 04, 2021, 04:03:39 pm »

First the gov had the army nick Iraq's oil, now they've got them delivering Iraq's oil

martinuzz

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1880 on: October 04, 2021, 04:18:28 pm »

Seems legit
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Starver

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1881 on: October 04, 2021, 05:43:30 pm »

Note that a people have been begging the government to send the army in on this. A week or two ago they said they had "no plans to use the army"[1]. But then they also said they wouldn't grant additional visas for lorry drivers in general, etc, in the run up to Christmas, and we know how that went. (For those who don't: firstly "only until Christmas Eve", now I think they've made it (or another patch-up) last until March...)

I'd despair, if it wasn't going almost exactly to expectations (pessamistic expectations, at that).


[1] I hope not. As it was unfolding I was mulling over to myself that they should have had plans, even if they were still resisting the intent to use those plans. And I've heard since then that they have indeed had the particular logistics unit(s) involved periodically going out on fuel runs to keep brushed up on the necessaries.
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anewaname

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1882 on: April 26, 2022, 09:55:07 pm »

Yeah, I see it now... The EU oligarchs that have been profiting from the Russia-EU pipelines have a new plan to continue to profit.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The EU coal plants will be re-started and the EU's carbon emission goals will be missed, and the seas will boil....
« Last Edit: April 26, 2022, 10:07:19 pm by anewaname »
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1883 on: May 18, 2022, 04:06:49 am »

Yeah, I see it now... The EU oligarchs that have been profiting from the Russia-EU pipelines have a new plan to continue to profit.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The EU coal plants will be re-started and the EU's carbon emission goals will be missed, and the seas will boil....
The European Union is known for its silliness and contradictory nature. One of my Polish friends here maintains to this day that the best thing for Ukraine would have been for the UK & USA to cut off all arms supplies to Ukraine so that the war ends faster. He would not be convinced that the best thing would be for the European Union to stop purchasing Russian gas to that the Russian fed defaults on government debt

Sean Mirrsen

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1884 on: May 25, 2022, 04:19:58 pm »

One of my Polish friends here maintains to this day that the best thing for Ukraine would have been for the UK & USA to cut off all arms supplies to Ukraine so that the war ends faster. He would not be convinced that the best thing would be for the European Union to stop purchasing Russian gas to that the Russian fed defaults on government debt
You're not going to end the fighting by giving Ukraine more weapons. You're just going to end Ukraine, at which point the fighting will, admittedly, stop.

It still amuses me greatly that people think Russia 'defaulting' would even do anything at this point.
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- Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs, India

Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1885 on: May 25, 2022, 04:29:23 pm »

You're not going to end the fighting by giving Ukraine more weapons. You're just going to end Ukraine, at which point the fighting will, admittedly, stop.

It still amuses me greatly that people think Russia 'defaulting' would even do anything at this point.
Well obviously. The choice was between Ukraine ceasing to exist under Putin's rule or to give Ukraine the arms it needs to be sovereign over its own land; if the Ukrainians want to surrender for peace, then that's ultimately their choice. If however they choose to prolong fighting, then they should be provided the means to continue fighting, until such time as they can pursue a favourable peace treaty. The die having been cast - this is what will be. I would not be surprised if the Ukrainian government will continue the fight until Russia withdraws from Crimea & Donbas, or Ukraine joins NATO. They are going to prolong this war until they can get a peace treaty which will shield them from any future Russian invasions, and it seems that Russia can't really do anything to reverse their losses whilst Putin still treats this as a "special military operation" and not an invasion

Starver

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1886 on: May 25, 2022, 05:44:13 pm »

Well, Ukraine joining NATO before removing Russia from its territory is not going to happen[1], and so long as Russia is unable to at least properly shore up/rationalise its 'gains' I can't see a functioning Ukrainian government not biting back at every opportunity, right up to the proper border if at all possible, for at least the rest of the year.

Maybe for several years, but I won't predict a Forever War as, apart from the difficulties of maintaining a Hot Stalemate for that long, some unforeseen/unforeseeable rebalancing is surely going to happen out of the blue. Whether from internal (for either side) elections or other necessary leadership changes, third parties adding more than the current weight of support or world events (natural or political) shifting the whole axis of international focus around. (You can imagine all kinds of things, most improbable but not at all impossible.)

I'm with you in that not supplying arms to Ukraine is one of the worst options for 'the rest of the West' to do. The easiest way to restore peace is for Russians[2] to go home, but the events that lead to that also require events outwith the direct and clear control of Ukraine. If anything, though, that is the outcome that Putin probably fears most, and probably fuels at least some of his paranoia. Fighting NATO-by-proxy is probably the best he could hope for. Which isn't saying much, but of the viable alternatives...


The main point (that I started with) also complicates the Moldova/Transnistria issue, for direct NATO interference, but doesn't prevent (maybe even lubricates) the possible transfer of materielle and the means of training.  Pour discourages la Putin, as it were.



[1] It was already off the table whilst they had Crimea and the 'rebel'/Russian-occupied bits of Donbas hanging over their heads. Possibly if they had officially relinquished their natural claims and things had settled down without the diplomatic-landgrab sparking further brinksmanship and border-pushing, for a few peaceful years, they would have been ellegible to properly apply, but it wasn't really a danger (putting the lie to Putin's 'fears') and it did not take a(n attempted) full invasion to keep it off the table.

[2] Russians from Russia, I mean, but I trust that (apart from outright collaborators within the last 8-or-so years of Russian interference, but especially any that tried to facilitate the invasion itself) ethnic-Russians-in-Ukraine[3] won't be overly prevented from returning to their Ukrainian homes at a similar rate as their ethnic-Ukrainian neighbours. Requiring only rebuilding and reconstruction, as necessary, in the post-recovery phase of any of those areas destroyed by the Moscow-led cousins.

[3] A fuzzy distinction as that might be...
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Loud Whispers

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1887 on: May 26, 2022, 06:00:36 am »

Well, Ukraine joining NATO before removing Russia from its territory is not going to happen[1], and so long as Russia is unable to at least properly shore up/rationalise its 'gains' I can't see a functioning Ukrainian government not biting back at every opportunity, right up to the proper border if at all possible, for at least the rest of the year.
I could definitely see a scenario where a Ukrainian counter-offensive fails and they settle for a peace where Ukraine joins NATO but Russia retains Crimea & Donbas in their sphere of influence so Putin can save face. We'll have to see how well Ukr ground forces can do

Maybe for several years, but I won't predict a Forever War as, apart from the difficulties of maintaining a Hot Stalemate for that long, some unforeseen/unforeseeable rebalancing is surely going to happen out of the blue. Whether from internal (for either side) elections or other necessary leadership changes, third parties adding more than the current weight of support or world events (natural or political) shifting the whole axis of international focus around. (You can imagine all kinds of things, most improbable but not at all impossible.)
Yeah I don't think Russia imploding or becoming Xi Jinping's property is good for Europe either, but a constant state of warfare isn't worth it either. As with all things, history tends to swing between "there are some things worth dying for" and "nothing is worth dying for." Nothing better can be done until Putin or Zelensky believe in the latter

I'm with you in that not supplying arms to Ukraine is one of the worst options for 'the rest of the West' to do. The easiest way to restore peace is for Russians[2] to go home, but the events that lead to that also require events outwith the direct and clear control of Ukraine. If anything, though, that is the outcome that Putin probably fears most, and probably fuels at least some of his paranoia. Fighting NATO-by-proxy is probably the best he could hope for. Which isn't saying much, but of the viable alternatives...
The main point (that I started with) also complicates the Moldova/Transnistria issue, for direct NATO interference, but doesn't prevent (maybe even lubricates) the possible transfer of materielle and the means of training.  Pour discourages la Putin, as it were.
At least for us, it is good that they never linked up with transnistria, and are unlikely to in future

Strongpoint

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1888 on: May 26, 2022, 07:57:39 am »

Quote
I could definitely see a scenario where a Ukrainian counter-offensive fails and they settle for a peace where Ukraine joins NATO but Russia retains Crimea & Donbas in their sphere of influence so Putin can save face. We'll have to see how well Ukr ground forces can do

If a Ukrainian counter-offensive fails, why would Russia agree to this kind of terms? Russia is already taking steps to occupy all of the captured territory.

Also, if a major countet-offensive will fail resulting in a huge loss of combat ability... Russia will start offensive on its own. It is how it works.


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They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Starver

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Re: Non-EU europe thread (with Russia, Israel and Australia included)
« Reply #1889 on: May 26, 2022, 08:41:17 am »

Any joining of (whatever remains of) Ukraine with NATO will be very difficult for Putin, because that is a key causus beli upon which he hung his whole invasion upon. So I also think LW is wrong here.

Putin must already be made irrelevent for Russia to accept a 'compromise' (which, not wishing to talk on your behalf, Sp) would currently be ery unacceptable to the overwhelming majority of Ukraine. If he is not irrelevent, already, it would make him irrelevent (or worse), so he will never consider this while he has any power to dodge the issue and change the stakes.

Realistically, the only two 'stable' outcomes are Russia entirely pushed out (stable internationally, there'll be trouble in Moscow as the scene adjusts), with not much benefit in leaving Crimea in its stolen state so I'll explicitly add that as a condition, or the originally-intended entire puppetisation of Ukraine under Russia's full control.

Both take a lot of effort (against those that wish for the other outcome, and possibly also those fighting for middle-ways like Full Russian Donbas) and are neither going to be easily attained. The difference is that the Russians only have ideological reasons to do-or-die (and many won't even have those, just command pressures that at some point won't convince them any more) but most Ukrainians have personal and existential reasons to resist the fall of their country. The 'might' of Russia cannot really directly destroy the Ukrainian will, while attrition has not become effectively absolute (and that's definitely past a line the world should not tolerate). On the contrary, something eventually has to give in what remains of the Russian sense of determination, if something drastic (escalating or something evolving behind the scenes to end the situation) does not change the situation.

(They won't run out of soldiers/etc, unless they are more incompetant than I think, but there'll be diminishing returns to an increasing 'non-mobilisation' call-up process.)


Using a broad brush to paint this picture. I still think that the most likely outcomes (cumulatively, if mutually-exclusively with many of the othets) are ones that arise from the unpredictable turns of fate that change the whole story and make the above either/or moot in most respects. But that's in a chaotic mess of shoulder-shrugging foggy futures.
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