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[Maximum Spin]

The Russian parliament signed a law that allows regional governors to set up their own private armies, to compensate for the loss of Wagner.

Inb4 civil warring mini warlords everywhere. Russia becomes the new Syria. Allahuakhbar!

I wouldn't expect too much. The US has had state militias forever - the entire National Guard is even organized by state. There was a delicate bit back in the 1800s, but it hasn't collapsed into warlordry yet.
Russia is almost certain to maintain even more Federal control of those armies - successful ones will probably be forcibly regularized just like Wagner.

[Lord Shonus]

Not surprising. Before the war there were many who considered themselves Ukrainians and Russians, then when Russia invaded they had to pick one or the other. Reminds me of how British and Irish used to not be conflicting adjectives. Of course in addition to those Ukrainians who fled into Russia willingly, there are also those who are just being coerced abducted or lacked a safe route into Ukrainian held territory

Analysts were claiming, before, that war losses and emigration would destroy Russia's economic future.

War losses and emigration are gutting very specific demographics in Russia. The war is mostly killing young men, and a huge portion of the people leaving the country are not only young but highly educated. A nation made up largely of old people and children is likely to be economically crippled for a generation or more - Europe after 1918 (where basically every country had spent four years feeding their finest young men into a sausage grinder) lagged heavily behind the US (who were "only" able to send 6-7 million men to the front before the war ended, and a lot of those didn't even see heavy action) even before 1929, and the Great Depression hit far worse there.

Russia isn't losing nearly as many people in combat, obviously, and emigration (which, from what I can find, is estimated to approach or exceed one million souls) is only hitting a fraction of the WWI losses (somewhere around three million dead, combining soldiers and civilians) in absolute or proportionate terms, but there are two factors that more than offset the raw numbers. First, it isn't just young men that are vanishing in large numbers. Quite a lot of women are leaving as well, creating a more complete gap. Even more importantly, they're suffering this loss while none of the other economic and military powers in Europe are. That makes the wound far worse because it isn't a case of everybody else being dragged down as well. It's just Russia (and Ukraine, obviously, but it would be a long time before they were a major economic player even without the war) that's taking this hit.

Ukrainian refugees can't offset that, even if the claims of raw numbers being greater (which I can't find to evaluate) are accurate. Many of those refugees aren't adults, and (more importantly) most of them are not in Russia voluntarily. They're not going to go one step beyond whatever they need to do to survive.

[Maximum Spin]

War losses and emigration are gutting very specific demographics in Russia. The war is mostly killing young men, and a huge portion of the people leaving the country are not only young but highly educated. A nation made up largely of old people and children is likely to be economically crippled for a generation or more - Europe after 1918 (where basically every country had spent four years feeding their finest young men into a sausage grinder) lagged heavily behind the US (who were "only" able to send 6-7 million men to the front before the war ended, and a lot of those didn't even see heavy action) even before 1929, and the Great Depression hit far worse there.

Russia isn't losing nearly as many people in combat, obviously, and emigration (which, from what I can find, is estimated to approach or exceed one million souls) is only hitting a fraction of the WWI losses (somewhere around three million dead, combining soldiers and civilians) in absolute or proportionate terms, but there are two factors that more than offset the raw numbers. First, it isn't just young men that are vanishing in large numbers. Quite a lot of women are leaving as well, creating a more complete gap. Even more importantly, they're suffering this loss while none of the other economic and military powers in Europe are. That makes the wound far worse because it isn't a case of everybody else being dragged down as well. It's just Russia (and Ukraine, obviously, but it would be a long time before they were a major economic player even without the war) that's taking this hit.

Ukrainian refugees can't offset that, even if the claims of raw numbers being greater (which I can't find to evaluate) are accurate. Many of those refugees aren't adults, and (more importantly) most of them are not in Russia voluntarily. They're not going to go one step beyond whatever they need to do to survive.

The math just doesn't track on that. Not even the most inimical-to-Russia sources estimate combat losses of more than a few hundred thousand, and emigration of more than perhaps one and a half million. On the outside. Russia is a country of almost one hundred fifty million people. Those numbers, no matter how educated they are, barely make an economic dent in this generation, and over two million extra refugees means it washes out in the next generation. Even if we take it in the light that is most unfavorable to Russia - taking the highest estimates of losses and assuming they're all of young people of peak productive age - it's just not enough to make much of a difference, especially for a country that makes the most of its money on raw resources.

[EuchreJack]

War losses and emigration are gutting very specific demographics in Russia. The war is mostly killing young men, and a huge portion of the people leaving the country are not only young but highly educated. A nation made up largely of old people and children is likely to be economically crippled for a generation or more - Europe after 1918 (where basically every country had spent four years feeding their finest young men into a sausage grinder) lagged heavily behind the US (who were "only" able to send 6-7 million men to the front before the war ended, and a lot of those didn't even see heavy action) even before 1929, and the Great Depression hit far worse there.

Russia isn't losing nearly as many people in combat, obviously, and emigration (which, from what I can find, is estimated to approach or exceed one million souls) is only hitting a fraction of the WWI losses (somewhere around three million dead, combining soldiers and civilians) in absolute or proportionate terms, but there are two factors that more than offset the raw numbers. First, it isn't just young men that are vanishing in large numbers. Quite a lot of women are leaving as well, creating a more complete gap. Even more importantly, they're suffering this loss while none of the other economic and military powers in Europe are. That makes the wound far worse because it isn't a case of everybody else being dragged down as well. It's just Russia (and Ukraine, obviously, but it would be a long time before they were a major economic player even without the war) that's taking this hit.

Ukrainian refugees can't offset that, even if the claims of raw numbers being greater (which I can't find to evaluate) are accurate. Many of those refugees aren't adults, and (more importantly) most of them are not in Russia voluntarily. They're not going to go one step beyond whatever they need to do to survive.

The math just doesn't track on that. Not even the most inimical-to-Russia sources estimate combat losses of more than a few hundred thousand, and emigration of more than perhaps one and a half million. On the outside. Russia is a country of almost one hundred fifty million people. Those numbers, no matter how educated they are, barely make an economic dent in this generation, and over two million extra refugees means it washes out in the next generation. Even if we take it in the light that is most unfavorable to Russia - taking the highest estimates of losses and assuming they're all of young people of peak productive age - it's just not enough to make much of a difference, especially for a country that makes the most of its money on raw resources.

Folks, this is the news thread. You need links to back up your claims, or you can discuss things randomly in Emotional Response.

[EuchreJack]

Russia fires warning shots and boards cargo ship in Black Sea

You might want to check out this link on the home country of the cargo ship.

[martinuzz]

Palau is in free association with the USA. Does that mean that if Russia had shot the ship, the US would have had to declare war, or does free association not include military protection?

EDIT: not only that, the ship itself was Turkish, but sailing under the Palau flag. Could have been an article 5.

[scriver]

Yes Russia, please antagonise Turkey over ships and shipping in the Black Sea.

[martinuzz]

The Danish and Dutch airforces intercepted two Tu-95 bombers heading for the NATO airspace under Dutch control.
Around 7am this morning the planes were detected by the Danish, after which the Danish and Dutch airforces deployed F16's, which prompted the Russian bombers to do a 180 and fly back home.

[Loud Whispers]

The Danish and Dutch airforces intercepted two Tu-95 bombers heading for the NATO airspace under Dutch control.
Around 7am this morning the planes were detected by the Danish, after which the Danish and Dutch airforces deployed F16's, which prompted the Russian bombers to do a 180 and fly back home.

Poland also to station 10,000 troops on the border with Belarus. Lots of sabre rattling, probably to try and dampen western enthusiasm for sending stuff to Ukraine

[martinuzz]

Two Russians have been arrested in Poland, for spreading Wagner propaganda posters through Kraków and Warsaw.
They were still carrying around 3000 posters when they were arrested. Russia paid them around 4500 euros for their actions.
They have been charged with espionage, amongst other charges.

[martinuzz]

The UK airforce also intercepted two Russian bombers this morning that were flying over UK airspace north of the Shetland Islands. Typhoons were sent to intercept.

[Loud Whispers]

The UK airforce also intercepted two Russian bombers this morning that were flying over UK airspace north of the Shetland Islands. Typhoons were sent to intercept.

This report is pretty cool, on the topic of Russian incursions on British air and sea space. Between 2005-2015 Russians tested British response times in the air about 6 times every year, which are tests to see how quickly the British would respond to a nuclear strike. Amusingly, the report also details an anecdote where the Ministry of Defence enlisted the help of the US, Canadian and French navies to track down a suspected Russian submarine, that may have actually been one of their own Royal Navy vanguard submarines

[EuchreJack]

Palau is in free association with the USA. Does that mean that if Russia had shot the ship, the US would have had to declare war, or does free association not include military protection?

EDIT: not only that, the ship itself was Turkish, but sailing under the Palau flag. Could have been an article 5.

I tossed my random speculation into the Emotional Response thread so as not to jam up the News Thread, because I ain't no "Senior Defense Analysis".