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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1297222 times)

BFEL

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1620 on: July 28, 2016, 12:45:37 pm »

Which is part of the reason why I'm so concerned about Trump. I don't understand why Trump gets so many votes
At least part of the reason he gets so many votes is the simple fact that he seems to genuinely believe what he's saying. Even when he has no idea what he's saying.
Which is roughly the biggest deal ever here in America where any serious attempt to find what a politician actually stands for typically requires hours if not days or weeks of searching through bullshit.

This is why I respect Putin more then any American politician, yeah he's a fuckhead who in any just world woulda been shot and left in the dirt, but you can tell pretty much at a glance what he wants out of the world.

Here every single election I've seen IN MY LIFE has been a fucking guessing game. Will candidate A actually follow through on their campaign promises or do a complete 180 and go "HAHAH I WAS A MEMBER OF THE OTHER PARTY ALL ALONG" what about candidate B?
Answer: None of them will actually do what you suspect.

So, silly and ironic as it sounds TRUMP IS POPULAR BECAUSE HE IS MORE PREDICTABLE.
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mainiac

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1621 on: July 28, 2016, 12:54:41 pm »

This is why I respect Putin more then any American politician, yeah he's a fuckhead who in any just world woulda been shot and left in the dirt, but you can tell pretty much at a glance what he wants out of the world.

Putin regularly lies about what he wants.  Putin employs people to spread a large amount of misinformation.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Frumple

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1622 on: July 28, 2016, 01:00:34 pm »

So, silly and ironic as it sounds TRUMP IS POPULAR BECAUSE HE IS MORE PREDICTABLE.
... or at least he's pretty decent at convincing low information voters he is, to all appearances. I'm not sure how you'd consider him particularly predictable, though, considering what he says he's going to do changes something like every few days. Well... predictable on some things, like changing position on a subject, but so far as policy and policy implementation goes I think you'd have better luck figuring out what a rabid squirrel would do, at this point.
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mainiac

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1623 on: July 28, 2016, 01:02:23 pm »

The term low information voters seems like a term that is ripe for misleading conclusions.  Perhaps you mean to say voters who haven't checked whether anything he says checks out.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Sergarr

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1624 on: July 28, 2016, 01:21:26 pm »

The term low information voters seems like a term that is ripe for misleading conclusions.  Perhaps you mean to say voters who haven't checked whether anything he says checks out.
I wouldn't call it "low information voters", I'd call it "purity voters". Trump's main strength is not intelligence, or wisdom, or conventional charisma. It's an instinct of a con-man that makes him appear pure and honest to people, and thus makes them not want to fact-check him, it makes them want to believe that he is always right and can never really be wrong.

It doesn't really help that Clinton's current platform appears to be literally everything at the same time. I hear people praise that currently Democrats have absorbed the traditionally Republican rhetoric about "city on a hill" and stuff, but I fear that this will backfire, as people will see them as too spread out and promising too much to be believable (15$ minimum wage, anyone?).
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birdy51

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1625 on: July 28, 2016, 01:36:21 pm »

Meh. They can keep their high promises. That way, the Republicans actually have a reasonable reason to campaign as opposed to supporting a self-serving fascist.
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Starver

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1626 on: July 28, 2016, 01:52:13 pm »

Maybe they'll cut a deal where Russia gets Europe and we get all of the Western Hemisphere unopposed. Oceania has always been friends with Eurasia.
Wait, where does that leave most of the UK, much of France, Spain and Portugal?

(Or has the application of nukes made that issue moot?)
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Rolepgeek

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1627 on: July 28, 2016, 01:59:12 pm »

Western Hemisphere means, I believe, Americas+Islands, in this case.
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smjjames

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1628 on: July 28, 2016, 02:00:31 pm »

If by what it needs, you mean what it needs to stop being the world hegemon, I guess...

Having others take up the slack and take some of the responsibility would be nice, but unfortunately, theres sometimes things that only the US can do (or at least do more easily) with our resources. So, it won't be easy....

Which btw is NOT isolationism, more like using the velvet hand rather than the iron hand, to use a metaphor.

For sure as heck I dont want any nation but maybe Canada take up any of the US world "hegemony". Its not responsibility but power, just imagine if it were the Chinese that had the military to control the world naval trade. US may start wars on a regular basis but at least I can recognize you as a democracy with a somewhat working justice system.

I dont believe that isolationism is what USA or its allies need... I find both candicates disgusting and dont have a strong opinion on which one could be better the lesser of two evils, but you aint getting another passive Obama this time.

I didn't say ALL of the power, just would be nice for our allies to take up some of the slack more. Though TBH I'm not completely sure what I mean by that.

Yeah third-party have some stupidly strong support as of lately. Must be due to all the "purity" politics going on - Tea Party and "Bernie or Bust" movements didn't appear from nowhere, it seems.

Which is part of the reason why I'm so concerned about Trump. I don't understand why Trump gets so many votes, and that's worrying me. He's the living embodiment of "purity", as opposed to Clinton, who appears to be an embodiment of "diversity". His base voter base should be much smaller than Clinton's, if we compare them by counting the number of people with identities of who they stand for - and yet, they're so close to each other that a single convention bump is enough to put Trump on the same level - or even above her.

This Tom Clancy-escue bullshit is really getting to me.

Trump? pure? pfft. And yeah, third parties have some stronger support this time around, for various reasons.
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Starver

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1629 on: July 28, 2016, 02:01:05 pm »

Trump's main strength is not intelligence, or wisdom, or conventional charisma. It's an instinct of a con-man that makes him appear pure and honest to people, and thus makes them not want to fact-check him, it makes them want to believe that he is always right and can never really be wrong.
I think I first heard this from Frankie Howerd, but it could have been usedmin some form, before that and it certainly something similar has been said many times since, but: "What the public really want is sincerity. If you can fake that you've got it made.... "

ETA to avoid doublepost:
Western Hemisphere means, I believe, Americas+Islands, in this case.
Pity it's inaccurate. And at odds with "The West", even. *pbbbt*
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 02:05:30 pm by Starver »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1630 on: July 28, 2016, 02:01:16 pm »

Maybe they'll cut a deal where Russia gets Europe and we get all of the Western Hemisphere unopposed. Oceania has always been friends with Eurasia.
Wait, where does that leave most of the UK, much of France, Spain and Portugal?

(Or has the application of nukes made that issue moot?)
No joke, I've sometimes wondered if the US and PRC aren't headed towards a Reverse Cold War situation. Instead of struggling power blocs the trade relationship eventually turns into Best Superpower Friends Forever, much to the detriment of everyone else in the world.
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mainiac

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1631 on: July 28, 2016, 02:20:18 pm »

And yeah, third parties have some stronger support this time around, for various reasons.

A decent rule of thumb for third parties for US presidential elections is you halve their support in any given poll.  People flirt with the third party answer before the election but then they either learn about the outlandish ideas the 3rd parties support or get cold feet about wasting their vote.  But even before we we do that halving, Gary Johnson is currently polling at 8.2% according to 538.  Ross Perot got 18.9% of the vote in 1992.  In 1996 he got 8.4% of the vote.  Before that we have John Anderson who got 6.6% of the vote in 1984.

So the third party movement is stronger compared to the elections in the aftermath of Nadar but it's not really stronger than you would expect.  Which is honestly a bit surprising given how unpopular the two nominees are.  I think that Gary Johnson has the best chance of a third party nominee since Roosevelt and would expect him to poll higher.  Perhaps after the Trump bump fades and Johnson gets a couple major endorsements?
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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misko27

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1632 on: July 28, 2016, 02:21:07 pm »

I'm starting to wonder about you BFEL. You don't even engage conversation, you just post to divebomb angry commentary and fly off without engaging anyone about it. That's what facebook and Twitter is for, not forums. Forums are for discussion.

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Strife26

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1633 on: July 28, 2016, 03:05:00 pm »

I know that it's the usual refrain of the third parties, but it'd be pretty nice if the mainstream media would notice their existence more frequently.
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Baffler

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Re: Ameripol\{RK, mainiac}
« Reply #1634 on: July 28, 2016, 03:29:55 pm »

Hedges/Bayes 2016!
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