To me, my forts get tested by the first siege if they flourish or not.
Not only you need to churn out decent amount of armors and weapons, but you do want some immigrants with weapon skills (with recruits mostly acting as meatshield) Then there's also keeping the dwarves moderately happy. Tantrum spirals happen if they eat same raw food, have no bed etc etc.
I tend to big nice good spot to embark with atleast shallow materials listed.
And thus, my issues are
A)If I get just copper, will I manage to outfit my military well enough in copper and train them good enough to withstand the iron of first gobbo siege
B)Can I get weapon/armor industry going way ahead the first siege
C) Will my mildorfs get gud?
D)Will werepersons and other nasty things avoid the settlement long enough for military to handle one of anything
Nevertheless, 2 out of 3 forts in my trap free forts survive.
My current fort almost failed after first year as bronze colossus arrived and I had only one steel weapon (got it from caravan). So, about half of military dead, my militia commander wrecked the colossus and started off a carreer badassery. Already nicknamed and has tendency to reap most kills in every siege.
And each siege is just getting bigger and badder.. If those stop or just don't do any dent to army, I think I'll start carving a way to the caverns and hope for some special visitors to spread their syndrom full poison around.
And well finally.. There's the true test of digging deep!
But yes.. Depending on the worldgen and hwere you start and how you start.. Things either will be easy, quite difficult or "OHMYGODNOTTHEHUSKSWHYTHEYAREONFLAME"