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[smjjames]

Speaking of turnout, the vote share graphic on Politico shows that the Dem turnout is up everywhere even the reddest Alabama counties.

Nate Cohn of NYT has also spotted this, in a tweet posted on the 538 liveblog. IMO, NYT is being way too optimistic in guessing it'll go for Jones.

[WealthyRadish]

I think Jones has a decent shot. At least glancing over the politico map at this moment, the Montgomery, Jefferson, Mobile, and Madison counties all are largely unreported, while most of the rural counties seem to have near fully reported. It also looks like the blue counties are getting far fewer third party votes, so I think the proportion of third party votes will decrease slightly.

Edit: Yeah, I think Jones has it in the bag. Montgomery county finally reported some precincts, and the gap closed instantly.

[Dunamisdeos]

I knew you weren't being serious, just didn't make the connection that Dawkins is atheist and was like 'what does evolution have to do with voting'.

Anyway, as David Wasserman said on the 538 liveblog, it's probably going to be a bit of a rollercoaster.

Yeah no, totally didn't mean to seem like I was poking fun at you there.

It at least makes me feel good that there's so much support for Jones. Even if he doesn't win, a number of people are flipping.

[smjjames]

A factor to watch — so far, 1.4 percent of the vote has gone to write-in candidates. Presumably that’s mostly from would-be Moore voters, as some prominent Alabama Republicans such as Sen. Richard Shelby said they wrote in a candidate instead of voting for Moore or Jones. That 1.4 percent could easily turn out to be larger than Jones’s margin of victory in the race, if Jones squeaks out a win.

It's not in that 1.4 ish range yet, but the lead is narrowing now.

I knew you weren't being serious, just didn't make the connection that Dawkins is atheist and was like 'what does evolution have to do with voting'.

Anyway, as David Wasserman said on the 538 liveblog, it's probably going to be a bit of a rollercoaster.

Yeah no, totally didn't mean to seem like I was poking fun at you there.

I didn't think you were.

[smjjames]

It's either flipped or very close now.....

That 1.5% other vote could become a real problem.

edit: and now within the recount threshold.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

All signs suggest a spoiler is only possible for Jones, not Moore. Unsurprisingly, there seems to have been some efforts to draft Strange or whoever else amongst the Republicans who accept the allegations against Moore.

[smjjames]

You mean the spoiler benefitting Jones and not Moore? I agree here that the 'other' votes are coming largely if not almost entirely coming from dissatisfied Republicans.

edit: Right now on NYT, the lead is less than 0.1%....

[Gizogin]

I'm seeing a lead of less than 2,000 votes out of over a million. That's pretty close.

[WealthyRadish]

I doubt there'll be any spoiler at this point. Assuming third parties get 20,000 (generous), and considering that it's literally tied right now with zero net red votes remaining, Jones should get at least 50,000 votes ahead of Moore looking at the population of Montgomery, Jefferson, Mobile, and Madison counties.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Holy fuck. Jones in the lead with mostly blue districts remaining.

He might really do it.

[smjjames]

I doubt there'll be any spoiler at this point. Assuming third parties get 20,000 (generous), and considering that it's literally tied right now with zero net red votes remaining, Jones should get at least 50,000 votes ahead of Moore looking at the population of Montgomery, Jefferson, Mobile, and Madison counties.

It's a whole lot less 'third party' than a lot of people doing write ins.

Anyways, yeah, moving upwards, 0.7 lead for Jones. Would be cool to get past the 1.5 or so percentage point margin that's the 'other' votes.

[Gizogin]

My last check shows a difference of less than 500 votes with 90% reporting.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Politico has called it for Jones.

[smjjames]

Just saw on 538, and Politico has as well.

[smjjames]

Also, reportedly Roy Moore had only prepared one speech tonight, I wonder if it's a generic speech that would fit whether he won or lost, heh.