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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 3595119 times)

Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31140 on: July 11, 2019, 11:51:29 pm »

Oh hey. Trump's given up on the census thing, apparently. Got his shit pushed in so hard he's trying to spin doing what was recommended over a year ago as some kind of victory. Good-ish news, I guess.

That's not "good-ish" news. The President openly telling SCOTUS where to stick their ruling would be a disaster of Nixonian proportions, if not worse. Him finding a way to back down without backing down will avoid a massive Constitutional crisis. If it sticks.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31141 on: July 12, 2019, 06:37:11 am »

He's not backing down without backing down, though. He's been shitkicked and is now in abject retreat and bloviating about it. That it doesn't mean that GOP efforts to fuck the american population, citizens very much included, via demographic data manipulation are going to stop makes things so it's only sorta' good, though. Not so much good news as less-bad news.

Yet another constitutional crisis would probably just be day N+1 of the shitgibbon's administration. Avoiding that is just kinda' meh. The census not getting fucked with in a particularly blatant way is a good thing. Everything else involved tilts it more towards silver living rather than clear skies. So good-ish news.
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hector13

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31142 on: July 12, 2019, 06:44:17 am »

He’s still saying he’ll give an executive order to force government agencies to hand over their data on folks citizenship status though.

The BBC gave the very vague “legal experts” say he can’t overrule the SC with an executive order, so who knows.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31143 on: July 12, 2019, 06:56:07 am »

I mean, yeah, he definitely can't for the census 'cause the census has basically fuck all to do with the executive. Its handling et al is mostly a congress thing, and that by way of flat out constitutional mandate. Executive order largely can't do shit to it. It can try but by and large everyone involved is entirely and legally able to just go, "Uh, no."

What he's saying he'll do is what government agencies were telling him to do instead of this census bullshit a good year and a half (and however many thousands of dollars of federal funds and who knows how many man hours that could have been doing literally anything else besides dealing with this shit) ago, or thereabouts. That he's saying he'll go through with it is part of why it's only somewhat of a victory for people who aren't colossal sacks of shit, but overall it's still definitely a flat out loss for him and the GOP.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31144 on: July 12, 2019, 08:51:41 am »

So, Labor Secretary Acosta has resigned over the epstein plea deal furor. Trump is going to have what, 20 acting directors/secretaries in major positions now. I wonder if it's even constitutional to have that many acting directors/secretaries at once, not to mention the other issues that come with the acting status.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31145 on: July 12, 2019, 09:53:45 am »

It's a great way for a total lack of accountability in daily operations, for one thing.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31146 on: July 12, 2019, 10:11:58 am »

So, Labor Secretary Acosta has resigned over the epstein plea deal furor. Trump is going to have what, 20 acting directors/secretaries in major positions now. I wonder if it's even constitutional to have that many acting directors/secretaries at once, not to mention the other issues that come with the acting status.

DC scuttlebutt is that it's not actually the Epstein thing that was the problem; people further-right have disliked his slow pace of deregulatory actions. They've been trying to kick him out for months, and now there's cover.

This Politico story gets into it a bit: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/alexander-acosta-stepping-down-as-labor-secretary-1411998

The Acting that's replacing him is a former lobbying partner of Abramoff, and liked by those who want aggressive deregulation. (Can't link something here, as it's paywalled. Sorry.)
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31147 on: July 12, 2019, 01:18:48 pm »

So, Labor Secretary Acosta has resigned over the epstein plea deal furor. Trump is going to have what, 20 acting directors/secretaries in major positions now. I wonder if it's even constitutional to have that many acting directors/secretaries at once, not to mention the other issues that come with the acting status.

DC scuttlebutt is that it's not actually the Epstein thing that was the problem; people further-right have disliked his slow pace of deregulatory actions. They've been trying to kick him out for months, and now there's cover.

This Politico story gets into it a bit: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/alexander-acosta-stepping-down-as-labor-secretary-1411998

The Acting that's replacing him is a former lobbying partner of Abramoff, and liked by those who want aggressive deregulation. (Can't link something here, as it's paywalled. Sorry.)

Wasn't Abramoff involved in some shady scandal of something or other some years back? The name is familiar somehow *checks wiki* Yea, one of the largest political scandals in recent decades. Not exactly a shining resume for the newest acting.

The larger problem with acting officials, besides the oversight, is that their actions don't have the same legal binding and officialness as a confirmed appointee. So, if that guy takes aggressive actions, they might not even be binding.

Theres also no guarantee that Trump will nominate that person for Department of Labor, though he does have a tendency to nominate the deputies.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31148 on: July 12, 2019, 01:53:15 pm »

The larger problem with acting officials, besides the oversight, is that their actions don't have the same legal binding and officialness as a confirmed appointee. So, if that guy takes aggressive actions, they might not even be binding.

Eh, the Vacancies Act is actually a bit of a paper tiger if the Senate isn't actively rejecting nominees. There are some more hoops to jump through, but my understanding is that not much would end up getting barred.

(Basically, there are time limits that an Acting, er, acts under, but if the Senate sits on a nominated replacement and does nothing then the Acting can do their thing for 2 or more years.)
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31149 on: July 12, 2019, 03:11:06 pm »

They don't seem to be actively confirming them either. I get the Democrats blocking judges and stuff, but having this many acting heads for so many top positions can't be good.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31150 on: July 12, 2019, 03:31:08 pm »

Of course it's not good? Fucking our institutional foundations into the ground is a GOP goal, though. It not being good is more or less mission accomplished.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31151 on: July 12, 2019, 03:33:46 pm »

Democrats can't block nominations any more, and the changes to post-cloture debate have eliminated the last minority defensive maneuvers. With majority votes (that is, no filibuster) and 2 hours max of post-cloture debate for any nominee, Trump and the Senate can confirm whoever they want -- assuming they have the votes.

The main problems have been prioritization (they're focusing on judges right now for long-term effects), getting a majority vote (some of the nominees are at a risk of losing enough Rs to not get a majority vote), and honestly just a lack of nominations. There are plenty of positions where the White House just either hasn't offered someone or has filed a nominal nomination -- e.g. they're content with the acting doing their thing, so don't care about the nomination being filled.

The Senate has been spending most of this year churning through dozens (perhaps hundreds?) of nominations, but (partly due to turnover) there are still a lot of unfilled positions.

[Edit: yep, hundreds. Though a good portion of those are probably non-controversial ones confirmed by unanimous consent.]
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 03:38:22 pm by Dostoevsky »
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31152 on: July 12, 2019, 03:44:17 pm »

I'd heard somewhere, months ago, that McConnell wasn't really doing much to speed things up either. He was allowing things to go slowly without forcing the democrats to all show up and push the issue. The republicans could try to make things speedier and force more democrats to actually attend the senate sessions in order to procedurally slow things down, but they were allowing the procedural slowdowns even when republicans had the numbers in attendance to force the speedier process.

Of course maybe this was just some backroom negotiation between him and Schumer to not make everyone be constantly in attendance. A sort of "Here's how the fight would go, so let's just not and pretend we did."

Also to go along with that, I believe Schumer was allowing things to happen unopposed that wouldn't normally be in democrats best interest.

In any case, washington politics. :P

EDIT:
 
[Edit: yep, hundreds. Though a good portion of those are probably non-controversial ones confirmed by unanimous consent.]

Based on that link, looks like the number of nominations that the senate has to confirm really isn't out of line with previous presidencies. Trump's first year was a LITTLE higher than average on most first years in recent decades, but not absurd. This year seems to be a little below average if it continues at this pace.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 04:12:11 pm by sluissa »
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31153 on: July 12, 2019, 04:13:00 pm »

He's probably holding his fire on 'forcing the Democrats to vote' until later in the election proccess for maximum effect since the Senate races haven't begun yet. It'd also affect his own caucus and doing it too much or too soon would cause issues.

If anything, he certainly knows what he's doing and how. So, yeah, Washington politics.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #31154 on: July 12, 2019, 05:44:49 pm »

I'd heard somewhere, months ago, that McConnell wasn't really doing much to speed things up either. He was allowing things to go slowly without forcing the democrats to all show up and push the issue. The republicans could try to make things speedier and force more democrats to actually attend the senate sessions in order to procedurally slow things down, but they were allowing the procedural slowdowns even when republicans had the numbers in attendance to force the speedier process.

Of course maybe this was just some backroom negotiation between him and Schumer to not make everyone be constantly in attendance. A sort of "Here's how the fight would go, so let's just not and pretend we did."

Also to go along with that, I believe Schumer was allowing things to happen unopposed that wouldn't normally be in democrats best interest.

In any case, washington politics. :P

"Washington politics" is an accurate statement, but it's incredibly rare in the Senate for senators to be forcibly sat down and run through floor activity. Almost every vote takes 20+ minutes because all the senators need to amble in from whatever fundraiser, constituent meeting, or whatever they're at. (In the House they usually stack votes so that the first is 15 minutes, then the rest are 2-5 minutes. And that's with over 4 times as many members.)

Under the new rules, there's nothing (within the normal bounds of Senate comity, at least) that Schumer & co. could do to slow things down further. The debate limitations put into effect earlier this year really throttled the avenues of resistance.

And forcing the minority to sit down, shut up, and vote also forces your own majority members to do that -- they're not any happier to be there instead of fundraising. Especially if there are more majority seats under threat than minority seats, it's in McConnell's interest to not make his own members sit around voting all the time.

[Edit: yep, hundreds. Though a good portion of those are probably non-controversial ones confirmed by unanimous consent.]

Based on that link, looks like the number of nominations that the senate has to confirm really isn't out of line with previous presidencies. Trump's first year was a LITTLE higher than average on most first years in recent decades, but not absurd. This year seems to be a little below average if it continues at this pace.

Might be in part because the debate change was only this April? So only about half the Senate's term thus far has been under the new rules.

From personal observation (part of my job is tracking what the Senate does), this year has been spent predominantly using floor time for nominations instead of legislation. And with the 2-hour debate rule in place, they're able to do many more per week than they had previously. They're not going at maximum rate, but they're doing about 8-12 per week instead of 3-6.

Does indeed to seem that the numbers fit the trend you state, which strikes me as odd. Could be that the number of non-controversials (i.e. those that can be dispensed with en masse via a single UC agreement) is lower? Not sure.

EDIT: I should note that using floor time for nominations instead of legislation isn't really that new in the Senate. Majority Leader Reid frittered away most of... 2013? 2014? doing the same thing. Even after using the nuclear option, though, he left in place the 30 hours of post-cloture debate.

AND A FURTHER EDIT: I should also note that it's pretty common for a large cluster of nominees to get UC'd at the tail end of a year, so there's usually a spike in numbers around then. That's because nominations expire at the end of a calendar year, so the majority & minority leaders usually strike a deal for handling a bunch of 'em. Of course, the number of expired nominations per year was much higher than normal in Trump's first and second year...
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 05:51:30 pm by Dostoevsky »
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