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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 1046940 times)

Il Palazzo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32160 on: July 17, 2019, 07:17:26 am »

The main confusion with the scientific consensus, imo, is that it's not a bunch of people coming together and deciding on whose opinion is going to be represented as correct. It's a bunch of people doing their own research independently, and arriving at essentially the same conclusions. It emerges organically, from the data, not in a top-down fashion, from some nebulous authority. To learn what the consensus is one can do a systematic review of the relevant literature. Or you know, ask somebody who works in the field.
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32161 on: July 17, 2019, 07:26:01 am »

Yes we know what scientific consensus means.  But it's fast becoming confused with "popular consensus" and "appeal to authority".  It also ends up becoming an "us versus them" thing, instead of a "oh that is compelling data" thing.  I mean - when you have people saying "yeah I think <whatever> is true, but I don't care because some group is trying to push some agenda because of it" we've missed the boat - it's not about the science at all.

They key is it's about the data and integrity of the data - I mean look at quantum mechanics.  It was correct (enough) even when the consensus was against it - consensus is not the important thing in science: scientific rigor is.

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Il Palazzo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32162 on: July 17, 2019, 08:52:49 am »

They key is it's about the data and integrity of the data - I mean look at quantum mechanics.  It was correct (enough) even when the consensus was against it
What. It's like you read what the consensus is, said you understand, rightly pointed out what it shouldn't be confused with, and then immediately defaulted to that thing it shouldn't be confused with.
There was never such a time when the scientific consensus was 'against quantum mechanics'. There were opinions of authorities of the time, but not a preponderance of studies testing QM in its purported domain and showing that it doesn't work.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32163 on: July 17, 2019, 10:02:08 am »

QM was literally one of those "huh, that's funny" type of moments piled on top of others, like starting from the classically troublesome but sorta reasonable assumption that a box with radiation bouncing around inside could have a smooth distribution of wavelengths present within, instead of the distribution you would only expect if you started by assuming you can have 1 foo of energy or 2 foos but not 1.389 foos.

Very rarely is there ever a situation where some lone enlightened genius goes "ah hah, this thing is actually acting this way because of that other thing!" and sets off a whole new round of old bearded dudes agreeing and congratulating them.

You tend to see somebody going "huh, wasn't this supposed to output a signal like this when we feed this input? why is it doing this whole other thing with this one range of inputs? let's check with that other one over there and see if it's time to get a new thingamajig" before you end up having to start throwing guesses at the wall, and if you're lucky you can construct one well enough that it ends up accurately describing other observations and predicting entirely new ones.

Science is a way to avoid being wrong about stuff, yes it is true that a single experiment can invalidate a whole stack of previously valid assumptions, but we've been picking off those sorts of low hanging fruit for a long time now and searching for new results isn't always as important as confirming old ones. Indeed if you aren't trying to make sure others can perform the same experiments and reproduce your results then you might be doing something that looks like science from the outside without noticing all the different ways you may have fooled yourself.

Without being able to check for that, you run the risk of passing on those same issues so they can fool others, as exemplified by the replication crisis snowballing up into such a clusterfuck of research building on prior results under the assumption that they could be reproduced and thus it was a waste of time to do so.
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Kagus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32164 on: July 17, 2019, 12:24:09 pm »

Science is a way to avoid being wrong about stuff
I thought science was a way to be wrong about stuff in the right way

nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32165 on: July 17, 2019, 12:25:06 pm »

No it's about the wrong way to be right about stuff.

Consensus!
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Dunamisdeos

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32166 on: July 17, 2019, 12:39:05 pm »

If you know someone who thinks science is done by popular consensus because of a misconception about what a consensus is (?) they are a unique flavor of wrong.
 
I am a Christian that goes to churchy-time and everything and even the old folks know what a science is. They sometimes don't like it, but they definitely aren't confused by what scientific consensus is or the concept that trained scientists agree on things and that's how we get science. At most they find other scientists (sometimes that term is very loosely applied) who agree with/reinforce their preconceptions, but let's be honest that not exactly a religious phenomenon and it's not really related to a misunderstanding about what consensus is.
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Folly

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32167 on: July 17, 2019, 09:56:16 pm »

Trump has been doing rallies the last couple days where he continues to push his message that people who don't love America should get out.
While the Dem's are raging over the perceived racism of his message being delivered to women of color, personally I'm primarily appalled by the blatant hypocrisy. Trump campaigned on a message that he was unsatisfied with the state of America and intended to change it, ie: Make America Great Again. But now, when other people are unhappy with the state of America, lawmakers whose very purpose in office is to change America for the better, when they are unhappy with the state of things the only possible recourse for them is to 'go back where they came from'. (they were all born in America, except one who legally immigrated at the age of 10)
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32168 on: July 17, 2019, 10:55:06 pm »

He's just trying to rattle the geriatric sabers of the boomer generation with hyperbole that makes no sense at all but makes that demographic feel strong and empowered.

Politics is dirty, and rife with double standards. (One of the reasons I despise it so.)


I am much more interested in the rumblings about articles of impeachment. I understand that the house voted it down with about as much invictive as is possible, but that the topic actually hit the floor is interesting.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32169 on: July 17, 2019, 11:08:53 pm »

In the "Politics of America: Wage disparity edition" category, this story sounds pretty spot on.

https://news.yahoo.com/i-was-so-livid-disney-heiress-visits-theme-park-undercover-to-see-worker-conditions-093000722.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Basically, One of the Disney heiresses did an undercover investigation of Disneyland and (shock) discovered what workers have been reporting for more than a decade: Abhorrent working conditions, terrible pay, and a managerial culture in absolute denial.  Said managerial culture of course, is "in-sensed!" at the "Flagrant mischaracterization!" and "Lies!" about their staffing situation, and of course they "Wont let this stand!" (namely, the frank outcry from said heiress, which they find so offensive.)


Does not matter that the situation at Disney has been horrible for at least a decade.

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/201011/2212/




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Trekkin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32170 on: July 18, 2019, 12:33:37 am »

I am much more interested in the rumblings about articles of impeachment. I understand that the house voted it down with about as much invictive as is possible, but that the topic actually hit the floor is interesting.

The House did not vote it down; they voted to table it as a way of killing it without a floor vote. Since, as a privileged resolution, it did not go through the normal committee process either, this was really just Al Green doing the same thing he did in 2017 and 2018 and being more successful only in the sense that his efforts were stopped by a smaller margin than before.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32171 on: July 18, 2019, 08:53:14 am »

So, the House voted today to condemn Trump's racist tweeting.

Does this actually mean anything? Like, are there any consequences? Or did they actually hold a vote just to determine that all of the Democrats and 4 of the Republicans don't like Trump?

To give you an actual answer: no, it doesn't actually do anything.

It probably also contained a 10% raise for everyone in congress, and it prevents Pelosi from having to actually do anything useful to the Democrats. I'm sure it did something, just not what they said it did.


In the "Politics of America: Wage disparity edition" category, this story sounds pretty spot on.

https://news.yahoo.com/i-was-so-livid-disney-heiress-visits-theme-park-undercover-to-see-worker-conditions-093000722.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Basically, One of the Disney heiresses did an undercover investigation of Disneyland and (shock) discovered what workers have been reporting for more than a decade: Abhorrent working conditions, terrible pay, and a managerial culture in absolute denial.  Said managerial culture of course, is "in-sensed!" at the "Flagrant mischaracterization!" and "Lies!" about their staffing situation, and of course they "Wont let this stand!" (namely, the frank outcry from said heiress, which they find so offensive.)

Does not matter that the situation at Disney has been horrible for at least a decade.

https://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/201011/2212/

Man, the bad stuff about Disney (just the Disney holdings they have, not ESPN and the rest of the stuff they own) could fill a thread. Hopefully starting with Uncle Remus tellin' the white chilluns a story.
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Bumber

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32172 on: July 18, 2019, 02:54:22 pm »

Edit: Wrong thread.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 09:55:49 am by Bumber »
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32173 on: July 18, 2019, 07:01:54 pm »

So, the debate draw pretty soon, and the information explaining how they're doing it at the bottom two posts of the liveblog https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-democratic-debate-draw/index.html
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catacombs

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #32174 on: July 18, 2019, 10:22:07 pm »

So, the debate draw pretty soon, and the information explaining how they're doing it at the bottom two posts of the liveblog https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-democratic-debate-draw/index.html

Another Biden-Harris showdown. That should be interesting.
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