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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 1123026 times)

Trolldefender99

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33285 on: September 16, 2019, 10:38:04 pm »

Botched the old story, or the recent story?

The recent one. They left out a key piece of info, and even CNN is saying it got botched

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/16/media/new-york-times-kavanaugh/index.html

It was only times opinion section though, not the main news section of times. Though I'm wondering if a trump supporter pushed it out to bait people into falling for it, cause a lot of the candidates started calling for impeachment. Then very quickly they added a key info that they didn't put in, like they were baiting people. Cause if that is the case, that is BS and not journalism at all.
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Ispil

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33286 on: September 16, 2019, 10:44:14 pm »

Incidentally, the one thing that they did actually build more of a case on (the Ramirez accusation) only plays second-fiddle; those same allegations were heavily downplayed when the Times reported on them the first time, saying that they could not find any witnesses. Now they claim to have found 7.

For reference, the article on the Times claiming that they could find no other witnesses was used when senators dismissed Ramirez's claim and refused to let her testify.
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Ispil

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33287 on: September 17, 2019, 11:01:43 am »

To note, the authors of the book also went ahead and wrote another article from their book. This time they omitted the "new allegation" part.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

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I transcribe things, too.

smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33288 on: September 20, 2019, 09:51:52 am »

Found an interesting simulation on ranked choice voting for the Dem primary:

Data and the simulation.

Vox article that discusses it

Turns out that whether starting from a slate of all 20 (less now actually, I think it may be 19 now that De Blasio dropped out) or from the top 10 or 5, the resilts were similar each time. Of course, it's just a simulation, it's not neccesarily a sign that Warren will ultimately win.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33289 on: September 20, 2019, 11:52:38 am »

Yeah, Warren has said she'll work within the current system to make it work. Sanders wants change that people with money don't like, so they're fighting him hard. Then you have people like Beto, Harris, and Biden who are so obviously right-wing that most people aren't falling for the act.
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PTTG??

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33290 on: September 20, 2019, 12:12:27 pm »

I just can't believe we have a front runner running solely on "I'm winning, so vote for me."
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Rolan7

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33291 on: September 20, 2019, 12:55:18 pm »

I'm just glad he's no longer predicted to win :P
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Dunamisdeos

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33292 on: September 20, 2019, 01:15:33 pm »

There's a subset of the population who will vote for Trump over Biden the same way they voted for Trump over Hillary.

I really hope Biden doesn't end up running against Trump.
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hector13

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33293 on: September 20, 2019, 01:21:27 pm »

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33294 on: September 20, 2019, 01:28:52 pm »

There's a subset of the population who will vote for Trump over Biden the same way they voted for Trump over Hillary.

I really hope Biden doesn't end up running against Trump.

That subset is probably going to vote Trump over any Dem candidate, unless Iím mistaken as to what subset your talking about.
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Telgin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33295 on: September 20, 2019, 01:51:58 pm »

I assume that was referring to swing voters, since otherwise I agree.  Almost every conservative I know would of vote for a Republican candidate over a Democratic one regardless of their platform.  I don't know enough liberals to tell if the opposite is true.

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.

Normally I'd say that Bernie is the sort of candidate for something like that, but clearly he doesn't appeal to the majority of left wing voters.  I think he mostly appeals to the younger generations.

It's tough because I feel like there's no equivalent to what Trump energizes people over.  Thinking back on it, I'm wondering how Obama managed it, and I want to hope it was more than just an endorsement from Oprah...

Maybe the only thing that works going forward is being a celebrity, which is a scary thought.
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33296 on: September 20, 2019, 02:01:28 pm »

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.

Energize the left only works to get rid of Trump if low turnout was the cause of the defeat. Otherwise, you're asking for blood from a stone

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html

EDIT: opinion polls consistently show that over 40% of America call themselves "conservative" whereas only about ~22% call themselves "liberal". Stuff that only appeals to a subset of liberals, such as radical left stuff, isn't the "energizing the base" stuff you're looking for. Hardcore leftists are going to hate their own party no matter what, because to actually win, you need to broaden that base beyond people who consider themselves "liberal", so you'll inevitably have stuff on your platform that pisses off the rad left, meaning if they're not turning out to vote for you now, they never will. You just cannot simply mirror what a Republican is doing, strategy-wise, because you don't have the numbers of hardcore believers available to make that work.

My view is that if you really want to win, you need to have something the swing vote wants. The key point here, is that is doesn't have to be what Trump's offering them. But it has to be something and not nothing. See what the top three things that concern the swing vote are, then pick some of those and find things the Democrats can offer them, and - critically - work it into language that isn't going to be a turn-off. That "firing up the base" far left language won't cut it. It's appealing to statistically 10% of the nation, who are either turning up already or not going to bother.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 02:11:40 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33297 on: September 20, 2019, 03:25:23 pm »

*sigh* Do you need to be a subscriber to NYT to see anything at all now? Because it's blocking me with the 'you need to subscribe' (I thought I hadn't yet reached the limit, maybe not) message and they've figured out how to block it when it's in private view.

The thing though is that Trump isn't really offering swing voters anything, at least nothing that would be interpreted as expanding the base or pivoting to the middle. Yes, there's the economy, but what else?
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Doomblade187

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33298 on: September 20, 2019, 03:41:51 pm »

That's my thing too. The "conservative" and "liberal" portions swap between various numbers based on the survey. But Trump is offering only a conservative agenda. Any propoganda against liberals only skews identity, not the policies offered.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33299 on: September 20, 2019, 03:57:03 pm »

Normally I'd say that Bernie is the sort of candidate for something like that, but clearly he doesn't appeal to the majority of left wing voters.  I think he mostly appeals to the younger generations.
Yeah, he's only so popular that they have to cheat against him to prevent instant victory, clearly an untenable candidate.

Thankfully we have Amy Klobuchar to #HealTheDivide and get those center-right voters energized for compromise!
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