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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 3576704 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34260 on: January 26, 2020, 11:58:48 am »

There are probably three stages to how Obama could attempt to remove Bernie.

The first is what's happening right now: Obama himself says nothing, but "people close to President Obama" imply that he doesn't want Bernie to be the nominee, or that he's going to speak out, or he even makes a public statement but it's extremely vague and doesn't focus on Bernie, just telling the Dems to "be careful" or whatever. This is mostly testing the waters.

The second is to get up on stage and outright say that Bernie's views don't represent the Democratic Party, that he isn't acceptable, and that Obama is officially "endorsing X to defeat Trump". This is kind of a bind for Obama, since if he endorses Biden it doesn't have much bite and it splatters Obama with all of the bad shit in Biden's past that people are looking at now, but if he endorses anybody but Biden not only does this constitute a horrid snub and political rift but they also probably won't be boosted enough for it to matter.

The third is just to go full malignancy and make up some story about Bernie, probably to say that he's a closet racist or foreign agent or something of that nature. For all that this could be powerful, look at what happened to Warren when she tried it, or this thing with Hillary just now. Obama hasn't been President for years, and a lot more people like Bernie than like him overall. It's also not entirely within Obama's character - he tends to handle confrontation in a passive-aggressive manner and for all that he ordered children blown up he never really engaged in smear jobs that I can remember.

All three of these have a fundamental problem in that Obama has no actual power anymore besides his name - and if he uses his name for an ill purpose like this, it could not only backfire horribly but it could remove his ability to turn his family into a political dynasty in the future. Could he do it? Sure. Do I think he will go beyond stage one? He might, but what does the party have to offer in return? I don't think it's game over for Bernie if he does, either. Obama is a good politician, and that means he probably recognizes that Bernie is also a good politician, who's taken tight jams and turned them into victories before.
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SalmonGod

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34261 on: January 26, 2020, 12:01:39 pm »

How would Obama prevent the nomination?

He can't do so directly, of course, but he's hugely influential among democratic voters and establishment.  And he could probably convince a large portion of primary delegates who aren't bound to cast their votes according to popular vote results to not vote for Bernie.  Remember in 2016 how Hillary had a huge number of delegates publicly pledging to vote for her at the very beginning of the primary season, before a single citizen had had a chance to cast a vote?  And DNC-friendly media was spinning that into "Bernie has no chance to win and supporting him only causes bad blood within the party so get out of the way" less than halfway into the primary season.  Shit like that.

And in Iowa, which is a hugely important state in elections where Bernie is neck and neck with Biden and no other candidates come close in polling, and 8 out of 49 delegates are not obligated to follow the results of the popular vote, the DNC is going to be using a new privately developed proprietary smartphone app, presumably with zero independent oversight, to calculate and report the results of the caucus in February.

This after the DNC successfully argued in court in the face of lawsuit in 2017 that they have zero obligation to pay attention to the will of voters in the primary or otherwise run it in a fair and impartial manner because they're a private organization.

The second is to get up on stage and outright say that Bernie's views don't represent the Democratic Party

Pretty sure he's already crossed this mark.  Not going to try and look up links right now, since I just finished doing a bunch of that.  But I've definitely seen him say things to this effect, along the lines of "Don't be fooled by the noise of him and his crowd.  They don't represent what the majority of Democrats believe."
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 12:13:20 pm by SalmonGod »
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34262 on: January 26, 2020, 12:14:15 pm »

How would Obama prevent the nomination?

He can't do so directly, of course, but he's hugely influential among democratic voters and establishment.  And he could probably convince a large portion of primary delegates who aren't bound to cast their votes according to popular vote results to not vote for Bernie.  Remember in 2016 how Hillary had a huge number of delegates publicly pledging to vote for her at the very beginning of the primary season, before a single citizen had had a chance to cast a vote?  And DNC-friendly media was spinning that into "Bernie has no chance to win and supporting him only causes bad blood within the party so get out of the way" less than halfway into the primary season.  Shit like that.

And in Iowa, which is a hugely important state in elections where Bernie is neck and neck with Biden and no other candidates come close in polling, and 8 out of 49 delegates are not obligated to follow the results of the popular vote, the DNC is going to be using a new privately developed proprietary smartphone app, presumably with zero independent oversight, to calculate and report the results of the caucus in February.

This after the DNC successfully argued in court in the face of lawsuit in 2017 that they have zero obligation to pay attention to the will of voters in the primary or otherwise run it in a fair and impartial manner because they're a private organization.

The second is to get up on stage and outright say that Bernie's views don't represent the Democratic Party

Pretty sure he's already crossed this mark.  Not going to try and look up links right now.  But I've definitely seen him say things to this effect, along the lines of "Don't be fooled by the noise of him and his crowd.  They don't represent what the majority of Democrats believe."
So how would we get our voices heard? In light of the ENC potentially editing the votes on the a-p before reporting them?
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SalmonGod

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34263 on: January 26, 2020, 12:18:15 pm »

So how would we get our voices heard? In light of the ENC potentially editing the votes on the a-p before reporting them?

There's really only two options.

1.  Punish their behavior in the general election by not voting for them.  Possibly making a 3rd party actually successful in the process.
2.  Riot

Courts have already sided with them.  So what else is there?
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 12:20:27 pm by SalmonGod »
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Pavellius

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34264 on: January 26, 2020, 01:52:49 pm »

The Iowa article states that it's difficult to be confident in the new app's cybersecurity because it relies on security through obscurity, the DNC won't tell us who developed it, and caucus leader will use it on their personal phone rather than dedicated hardware. However, it is not a remote voting app, but rather one of the lines communication for reporting in-person votes to the DNC. It's started purpose is to help caucus leaders crunch math and quickly transmit their results. The article states that the caucus will still have a paper trail and the results will also be determined and transmitted the traditional way involving witnesses, so after a delay we will know the accuracy of the app's findings.

That said, there are two other interesting tidbits there:
-The DNC considered developing a remote caucasing app for Iowa last year but scrapped the idea because it lacked support.
-A result-transmitting app was already used in the last Iowa Caucus, but the votes were so close between Bernie and Hillary that they needed the paper trail. There was sketchiness surrounding this caucus, too, but it sounds to me that the app was not one of the main vote-handling problems. (Found here.)
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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34265 on: January 26, 2020, 02:25:42 pm »

I voted for Jill Stein.  Not because I thought she was an especially great candidate, but because I thought that making my support for Green politics show up in statistics would be more meaningful to my political priorities than voting for Hillary.

And I stand by my choice, too.  I'll say it as many times as I need to.  If there's going to be a villain in office, make them obvious, please.  Aside from toning down the warmongering and corruption just a little bit, Obama otherwise mostly carried on with all the same things Bush did, and successfully lulled his base into trusting complacency at the same time.  Meanwhile, since Trump took office, I've witnessed by far the greatest political consciousness and motivation among the general populace ever in the 20 years I've been paying attention to politics.  And frankly, he hasn't actually accomplished anything worse than what Bush did besides being more personally unlikable.  A fine trade-off, imo.

If you look at history, everything good that's ever happened has happened when enough people got involved in energized movements.  If we had Hillary instead of Trump, I absolutely believe that the era of complacency would have continued.  Everything that's been getting worse over the past 20 years would have continued to get worse, with hardly anyone paying attention just as it had been.  Above all, we would have wasted another 4 years of our deadline on the environment.

The DNC can learn to actually stand for the things it claims to, or it can die.  We have real movements now like never before, and the likes of Hillary and Obama are more of a threat to them than Trump is.  Obama has stated multiple times that if it looks like Bernie's going to get the nomination that he will personally step up to make sure that doesn't happen.  Fuck these people.  They're our enemies just as much as Republicans.

Oh don't repeat this accelerationist drivel. It essentially boils down to "I'm intentionally making things worse so people suffer more! That'll fix things!"

No. Better policy is self-evident and makes it possible for further betterment. Not only because of the movement of the Overton Window leftward, but also because the right is all about entrenching their power with propoganda and corruption. The Democrats aren't above that, but they are much worse at both. And ideology does matter. Sure the Democrats were happily warmongers under Bush and Obama, but at least the Democrats gave a damn about environmentalism, labor rights, education, political representation, welfare, infrastructure, network neutrality, and fiscal responsibility... if they did not, there would have been nothing for Trump to destroy.

And finally, when you have a secure job, some medical care, a basic education, and democratic representation, it's a lot easier to protest against the warmongering, spying, corporate corruption, and insufficient medical care.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34266 on: January 26, 2020, 02:32:03 pm »

Look, Hillary was a goddamn terrible candidate, she couldn't even pretend to human if you put a whole team of Henson-trained puppeteers behind a ultrafine-control-ridiculously-geeky-tech full body rig.

I mean... she lost to Trump for fuck's sake, that isn't a screwup, it's slipping on a banana peel down an escalator onto a skateboard which is aimed straight at the front of a fucking bullet train, except she somehow managed to do all that while lighting herself on fire and awkwardly mangling a crappy joke type of Stooge-level nonsense.

I'm pretty sure an empty podium would have done a better job trying to get elected than she did, but for all the fucktarded stupidity it took to actually prop her up as a candidate, she would have done a great job as president, governing, finagling, policy crafting, that's the only shit she's actually any good at, and really all she's qualified to do.

Instead we get a cartoonishly evil buffoon who has thankfully only managed to maim our sense of decency and respectfulness globally while serving as a distraction for whatever evil fuckery Mitchbitch and his right wing judges can accomplish.

If it wasn't so goddamn stressful it would almost be hilarious that the only reason we haven't seen a full rollback of the entire civil rights movement, total privatization of all services after they were sold to the highest bidder, and I dunno a limited nuclear exchange or three somewhere plus martial law in California... is because the stupid orange bitchbaby sack of dumb is too busy complaining that he can't just buy Greenland and use all the ice to make the liberals shut up about global warming so he can finish building his wall on the Mexico-Colorado border.

Whoever ends up opposite him in November... even--god help us all--zombieBiden... hold your nose and take comfort in the idea that nobody will ever actually be able to fully properly prosecute Trump once he's booted out because the mountain of paused litigation and criminal investigations will bury him until long after his kids die of old age.

God I hope Biden strokes out on stage and disappears or makes some sort of eldritch bargain while he trades his soul and hunter's to bring back beau to run in his place before it gets to that worst of least worst scenarios.
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Cthulufaic

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34267 on: January 26, 2020, 02:46:17 pm »

Has there been any word about VP choices?  Being deliberately naive to keep myself sane, I'd hope the Dem candidate would pick one of their primary opponents as VP and have some others in their cabinet, but I've heard little to nothing about these things.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34268 on: January 26, 2020, 03:11:45 pm »

I mean, I hold out hope for a Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren ticket being announced any day now... hope these days seems mostly to be a way to add some extra anguish to your daily overload of outrage, disgust, and horror.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34269 on: January 26, 2020, 03:19:33 pm »

I don't think that will happen without open dialog between Warren and Sanders.


The media has done their evil masters' biddings, and have lobbed that shit grenade into the mix specifically to throw cold water on that potential outcome.  The public is eating it up like candy, and both Warren and Sanders don't seem to want to talk about it meaningfully.  Warren, because she apparently has dangerous pride, and Sanders because being truthful in politics about the dirty truth about the electorate is how you alienate voters.

Unless those two can somehow suck it up, meet behind closed doors, and bury that hatchet, the media's apple of Eris is going to have the same effect as that in the myth.  Sew dissension and chaos.


This is why I fucking hate identity politics.  It does not unify.  It fragments.
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34270 on: January 26, 2020, 03:40:35 pm »

Has there been any word about VP choices?  Being deliberately naive to keep myself sane, I'd hope the Dem candidate would pick one of their primary opponents as VP and have some others in their cabinet, but I've heard little to nothing about these things.

VP choices don't tend to come out until deep into the primary or even at the beginning of the general. Cabinet picks are rare to announce. It's always nice when you can sort of see some concessions being made towards the supporters of those who didn't make it through the primary, but you also have a lot of these candidates who, if they don't win, already have pretty solid jobs they'd rather stay in. Anything lower than president is kind of going to be a step downward for a senator, or even a representative in a safe district they've held for a while.

Warren I could see accepting a VP position if offered to her. "First woman vice-president" isn't a terrible record to hold, and if she wants to make another run in 4 years, then that's not terrible on her resume. It's also a good point to end your career on as well. Sanders... I just don't see him leaving Vermont for it unless it were for something like a Warren/Sanders ticket which would have enough power have a good chance at winning and also have enough of a common goal to get something useful done while he's there. But we have this bad blood between them now...

Buttigieg would be a good VP pick. And he'd likely take it as well, given it's a significant step up from mayor and he's young enough he could turn that into another run at president in 4-8 years.

I wouldn't expect Biden to do it again, especially given how hesitant he was to enter this race to begin with.

I could see some of the others jumping at it. Steyer definitely. Bloomberg, probably. Klobuchar might... but she's also a sitting senator and in a fairly safe seat in a state that likes her and with 4 years left on her term before another election. Some of the drop outs might consider it as well, but other than maybe Harris as a Biden or Buttigieg VP, I can't think of any of them that'd be a major benefit to any of the current front runners, and the ones that dropped out, they dropped out for a reason, they wouldn't be bringing a ton of support with them to another campaign, they'd have to be bringing something like personality, experience in an area, or a female/minority angle.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34271 on: January 26, 2020, 04:38:19 pm »

Sanders/Warren is not going to happen. There was some evidence that it was being planned before Warren decided to self-destruct, but there is no way Bernie will let someone who is both treacherous and a shitty politician in the Veep slot.
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SalmonGod

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34272 on: January 26, 2020, 07:27:11 pm »

Oh don't repeat this accelerationist drivel. It essentially boils down to "I'm intentionally making things worse so people suffer more! That'll fix things!"

That's a fundamental misunderstanding.  It's not about making things worse.  It's about making the level of bad things already are more obvious.

In which scenario is the frog more likely to survive?  If the temperature is raised slowly by a remote operator under a pot in a room both painted to look like cool mountain streams?  Or when the cook blasts the heat to max right away while laughing maniacally in the frog's face about their impending doom?

The same threat is faced either way.  Preferring the latter scenario is not making things worse.  It's making them more apparent.


No. Better policy is self-evident and makes it possible for further betterment. Not only because of the movement of the Overton Window leftward, but also because the right is all about entrenching their power with propoganda and corruption. The Democrats aren't above that, but they are much worse at both. And ideology does matter. Sure the Democrats were happily warmongers under Bush and Obama, but at least the Democrats gave a damn about environmentalism, labor rights, education, political representation, welfare, infrastructure, network neutrality, and fiscal responsibility... if they did not, there would have been nothing for Trump to destroy.

And you're making my point for me.  Do you actually know that Democrats are any better at those things?  Or do you just believe it because Democrats ensure their association with those words via enough repetition by talking heads and on campaigns that you take it for granted to be true?

Environment:
My favorite.  I love when people claim Democrat high ground on this one.

Labor Rights/Welfare/Fiscal Responsibility:
These are all aspects of the same issue -- inequality and the disproportionate privilege and influence of the wealthy.

And what if Biden gets the nomination?  Will Blue No Matter Who serve you when Mr Blue is someone who has been trying to cut social programs for 40 years?  Who is one of the people in government most personally responsible for the student loan crisis?  Who was also instrumental in setting up the modern crisis of mass incarceration?  Who doesn't support Medicare for All?  How much of a Republican in practice does someone have to be before people stop believing that any Democrat is better than a Republican?

Political Representation
Do... do I really need to go into this?  How can you even include this one only a few posts after I mentioned how the party's lawyers literally argued in court that they have no obligation to care about their voting base's input in their primaries?  Do I really need to go into detail about the massively anti-Democratic shitshow in 2016?

I could go on and on and on.

The way I see it, Democrats could not possibly survive as a party in power because then they would be forced to actually follow through with what they claim to stand for, which when given the opportunity they prove to be a lie more often than not.  Their rhetoric only works when they get to play the part of obstructionist to someone else in power who's worse at PR than them, and they can claim that their direct participation in destructive policies was forced upon them by vague "harsh strategic political realities".  The Democrat establishment is neoliberal first and foremost, and neoliberalism is the enemy of the poor, workers, and the environment.  Never-ending growth of the economy (not measured in any way that directly relates to the well-being of common people) and corporate profits always take precedence.  The #1 reason we're seeing a global rise in fascism around the world right now is because neoliberal policies result in popular desperation, which expresses itself in either progressive or fascist reactionary directions, and neoliberalism is more compatible with fascism than with true progressivism.  If given free reign to implement whatever policy they wanted, it would be more of the same.  Everything getting worse in the same ways it is now.  But at a softer, slower pace, with more layers of better designed abstraction to hide their direct responsibility for the outcome.


The Iowa article states that it's difficult to be confident in the new app's cybersecurity because it relies on security through obscurity, the DNC won't tell us who developed it, and caucus leader will use it on their personal phone rather than dedicated hardware. However, it is not a remote voting app, but rather one of the lines communication for reporting in-person votes to the DNC. It's started purpose is to help caucus leaders crunch math and quickly transmit their results. The article states that the caucus will still have a paper trail and the results will also be determined and transmitted the traditional way involving witnesses, so after a delay we will know the accuracy of the app's findings.

You're right I did miss that there would still be a paper trail.  Although, the thought of trying to correct a wrongly reported result after the fact forces me to recall the horror of Florida in 2000.  Which is kinda-sorta acknowledged also in the article.

Quote
"Once you report something, it's really hard to undo it, no matter how many retractions you print, no matter how many apologies you say, it's too late," Jones says.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 07:48:15 pm by SalmonGod »
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34273 on: January 26, 2020, 08:12:02 pm »

The frog in this experiment you are referring had some of it’s brain removed, which likely lowered its self preservation. Your points are solid, and the analogy was understood.
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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34274 on: January 26, 2020, 10:03:20 pm »

...Everything getting worse in the same ways it is now.  But at a softer, slower pace, with more layers of better designed abstraction to hide their direct responsibility for the outcome.

Bullshit. If you think that Trump's government is the same as a hypothetical Democrat would be, just "worse PR," you're ignoring everything that Ajit Pai, Betsy Devos, and Wheeler have done, let alone Trump's Fascist hatemongering of everyone other than straight white males and blatant self-enrichment.

No, letting the country fall apart is lazy at best, and aiding and abetting fascism at worst.
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