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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 1375390 times)

WealthyRadish

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34845 on: February 16, 2020, 07:24:12 pm »

The first set of posted graphs appears to suggest that the rate of legal firearm ownership is well-correlated with deaths from accidents and suicide while legal firearm ownership has no significant correlation with firearm murder rate. An R2 of 0.57 naively means around half the "accidental" death rate is expected to be predictable from rate of gun ownership rate alone, while the correlation in the second graph is so weak it's safe to say there's no relationship in that sample.

The second set of box plots separately seems to suggest that legal restrictions on gun ownership are correlated with accidental/suicide death and have little effect on murder, and it looks like the subsequent graphs attempt to predict the expected death rates if the restrictions were implemented broadly (the red lines).

The most obvious confounding factor against this that I can think of would be the possibility that gun legislation is passed in places with lower rates of ownership for political reasons, and so the correlation with legislation is incidental to the much more important factor of ownership rate. In other words, this counter-explanation would be that the laws are useless but the presence of laws is inversely correlated with gun ownership, which is the real killer, so a spurious relationship is created between laws and accidental gun deaths (across the board gun murders look unaffected by either factor).



If the Dems gave up on the issue entirely I personally wouldn't be too ruffled, but I'm not sure what the gun nuts really think they stand to lose. The usual cycle seems to be another sensational shooting, calls to do something, doing nothing, and then later maybe if the local party thinks they need a win they'll pass some ineffectual performance piece that makes the lifestyle marginally more inconvenient. America in general seems well beyond the point of being capable of sweeping legislation on just about anything, so I imagine even the worst conceivable "blanket-ban" scenario would probably include the 400 million or so existing guns getting grandfathered in just as the automatic weapons were. Even that is an unrealistic fantasy.

In my personal view the relationship with suicide, domestic violence, and accidental death is enough to ban them in any reasonable society with a reasonable civil and criminal system, but the US isn't any of those things and the political cost is so enormous that for both the supporters and detractors I think the issue is largely a waste of time relative to other problems.

My pet theory is that it's only a persistent and earnestly pursued issue at all (from the democratic leadership that is) because the nationalistic aspects of the establishment don't like the way the regular massacres reflect on their own self-image built around playing politics near the helm of "the greatest country on earth."
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 07:28:35 pm by WealthyRadish »
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34846 on: February 16, 2020, 07:28:59 pm »

If you want another thesis on the extinction of the megafauna I'll refer you to Randall Carlson.

I googled Randall Carson. If it's the "sacred Geometry" guy then he seems like a right whacko on the time-cube level. I don't trust people like that when they concoct wholesale their own science that opposes everything that the trained people say.

EDIT: I looked into it, it's an interesting hypothesis, but the Younger Dryas comet hypothesis fails to explain the evidence, since megafauna in different continents went extinct at different times, but it correlates well to modern humans arriving. For example, south america's megafauna went extinct half a millenia after north america's, which matches immigration patterns, and Australia's went extinct 30,000 years before the Americas, which fits with evidence that modern humans arrived there about 40,000 years ago.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 07:41:22 pm by Reelya »
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34847 on: February 16, 2020, 07:50:46 pm »

Like the only thing vaguely geometric I ever saw on geocosmic rex (another cancerous title and the only place I watch the man) was a lecture on some the measurements of some church in england and how some specific proportions relate to eachother supposedly meaning something. The jist of it was that humans are proportianal to the earth's size but it all relied heavily on using not using the metric system  IRC :D... Again I click him in the hope to hear talk of drumlins and shit...

God I never fail to undermine my actual argument with a distraction do I?

Doomblade187

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34848 on: February 16, 2020, 07:56:36 pm »

So, I actually know Randall Carlson (not Carson), personally. And, he's not a nut, at least by my standards, just very new-agey. I don't personally agree with his historical interpretations of geology on a lot of fronts (primarily climate change) primarily, he's a guy who studies ancient construction and drafting techniques, like from cathedrals, and teaches them.

Edit: yeah, the stuff about proportions in old construction is like most of what he does, iirc. And as per not metric, most of the things he looks at predate metric. :3
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 08:03:24 pm by Doomblade187 »
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In any case it would be a battle of critical thinking and I refuse to fight an unarmed individual.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34849 on: February 18, 2020, 04:25:46 am »

Hey, my state is switching to ranked voting for the primary this run.

https://www.thekansan.com/news/20200217/changes-coming-to-democratic-primary


Should be interesting.  Not like my state has a huge impact or anything, but I find this interesting.  I wonder if the establishment democrats are trying to pull a fast-one by switching to ranked voting for this cycle to avoid winner-take-all outcomes because they fear Bernie *THAT* much?


I guess I will found out in 4 more years.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34850 on: February 18, 2020, 09:28:50 am »

Like the only thing vaguely geometric I ever saw on geocosmic rex (another cancerous title and the only place I watch the man) was a lecture on some the measurements of some church in england and how some specific proportions relate to eachother supposedly meaning something. The jist of it was that humans are proportianal to the earth's size but it all relied heavily on using not using the metric system  IRC :D... Again I click him in the hope to hear talk of drumlins and shit...

God I never fail to undermine my actual argument with a distraction do I?

You're online. Being off-topic is common enough that there are rules specifically addressing how far off-topic you can be and/or how long, and you can find the answers to half of your questions without asking. You're good.


Edit: Anyone else get tired of the right-wing 2/3 of the Democrats making arguments that boil down to "the only way to stop a bad guy with a fascism, is a good guy with a fascism"?
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 10:51:50 am by Iduno »
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34851 on: February 18, 2020, 11:02:08 am »

That's basically short hand for "We want power." Nobody that actually cares about what the president does to the rule of law and society wants another Trump. There has to be an entire class of democratic politician that's seen what Trump was able to get away with and is literally foaming at the mouth for the chance to do the same.
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34852 on: February 18, 2020, 11:18:39 am »

Mayo Pete responded to protestors from the LGBTQ... community by calling them all homophobes.


That's basically short hand for "We want power." Nobody that actually cares about what the president does to the rule of law and society wants another Trump. There has to be an entire class of democratic politician that's seen what Trump was able to get away with and is literally foaming at the mouth for the chance to do the same.

Yeah, I guess it goes back to the old "politics as a team sport" that undermines actual democracy. You shouldn't be allowed to vote unless you have skin in the game. "Things are fine" is bullshit. At least "I'm a billionaire and don't want to have to pay my fair share" is a personal reason to care about things. "Insurance cut me off because doctors found a tumor" is better, though.
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34853 on: February 18, 2020, 11:37:52 am »

Mayo Pete responded to protestors from the LGBTQ... community by calling them all homophobes.

Note, that was his supporters saying that, not him. Unless I missed something. Don't start pulling that shit out on Buttigieg if you're not going after Sanders' supporters for doing exactly the same sort of shitty things.

Also that mimics the whole "Obama not doing enough for black people" shit that went on. Some people you'll just never make happy, and you can't just be president of black people or LGBTQ people. You have to consider all of the people who you want to vote for you, and at the end of the day, as loud as they may be, LGBTQ people are a VERY small minority. They deserve to be treated equally to anyone else, but it's going to piss a lot of people off if you start catering to them.
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Doomblade187

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34854 on: February 18, 2020, 11:46:19 am »

Who's it going to piss off if you start catering to LGBT rights? Besides bigots, I suppose. I understand that there's always internal divisions, and Obama receiving criticism on his record for the black community is a good example of that. I guess I'm just confused by what you mean by "catering"
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In any case it would be a battle of critical thinking and I refuse to fight an unarmed individual.
One mustn't stare into the pathos, lest one become Pathos.

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34855 on: February 18, 2020, 11:56:43 am »

"Catering"= Doing anything for on a policy level, instead of saying nice things during the campaign and then focusing on austerity and job training programs for toddlers once you get in.
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Doomblade187

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34856 on: February 18, 2020, 12:06:10 pm »

"Catering"= Doing anything for on a policy level, instead of saying nice things during the campaign and then focusing on austerity and job training programs for toddlers once you get in.
While I do love your shitposting, I really do want sluissa's definition. :3
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In any case it would be a battle of critical thinking and I refuse to fight an unarmed individual.
One mustn't stare into the pathos, lest one become Pathos.

Kagus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34857 on: February 18, 2020, 12:36:00 pm »

I thought Bloomberg was the one doing all the catering, since he could afford it.

They even served free drinks!

sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34858 on: February 18, 2020, 01:30:57 pm »

Catering would be explicitly dealing with issues for minorities(LGBTQ included) that are issues for the wider population without acknowledging it in that context and often without attempting to help the wider populace.

One of the examples that's extremely common is the idea of helping out poor black communities while poor whites often get no attention at all. The problem there isn't that black people are poor, it's that anyone is poor. Rising tide lifts all boats, and all that. Setup the minimum safety net for everyone, and make sure there are no holes to fall through, and that solves a lot of problems and makes it so that dumb people who are angry at welfare systems from a racial perspective have a much less sturdy soapbox to stand upon.

Looking at the complaints on https://www.queersagainstpete.com/letter(which was linked in the guardian article referenced earlier, and I hadn't actually read until this point) I don't see any one specific complaint that's directly related to being LGBTQ. It's all generic "not progressive enough" complaints that connect to LGBTQ via questionable intersectionality logic. They even acknowledge that he's for the Equality Act which is the one thing that IS directly related to LGBTQ issues that's addressed in the letter.

You can complain about things like(taken from the linked letter):
*universal free public college
*cancelling student loan debt
*restore the right to vote for all formerly and currently incarcerated people
*the concerns related to Eric Logan
*a moratorium to end deportations
*decriminalize border crossing
*Medicare for All and universal childcare
*demolished homes
*boycotting for political reasons
*cap credit card interest rates
*guarantee a job to everyone who needs one
*increasing of defense spending

Those are all legitimate issues to be worried about. And issues that if they bother you enough are reasons to not vote for Buttigieg.

But they are not LGBTQ issues, and framing them like that makes it seem like every LGBTQ person has to be on the side of the people who wrote that letter and completely silences LGBTQ people who might be more moderate or even conservative.

So, TL;DR: In this particular case, catering would be catering to left wing progressives when he's very obviously trying to be a moderate candidate. It just doesn't make sense, would alienate his current base, and he'd be fighting over the wedge of the electorate that already hates him for stupid reasons they aren't likely to get over from a few "promises" and already have a candidate they like.

I admit, when I said "cater to" I saw "protester" and assumed they were after something crazy, rather than just talking normal policies in a somewhat dishonest way. The article doesn't really describe what they were angry about except in general terms and that the fundraiser tickets were too expensive. In general though I'm talking about the push for specific legislation that sets apart LGBTQ as a protected class. If a law is good enough for LGBTQ people, it's good enough for everyone. And if for some reason the law protecting everyone isn't protecting LGBTQ people, that's an issue with the enforcement or implementation of the law that needs to be dealt with that a new law won't help. The Equality Act is in general a good example of a law(not perfect, but good), since it protects a gay person from not getting a job or a house because they're gay as much as it protects a straight person from not getting a house or a job because they're straight. I'm fine with the law being used more often in one direction than the other, but I'd be glad that it's there in case I do ever need it and it would piss me off if it didn't work in the other direction as well. Trying to set some sort of affirmative action for a specific group while ignoring others who aren't in that group is just begging for increased divisiveness.

We really should just be trying to help each individual that needs help, regardless of who they are or what kind of category or label you can put on them.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #34859 on: February 18, 2020, 02:17:53 pm »

Well you can say one thing about the progressive left I guess, they're consistent. No one gets a pass on absurd purity testing, not even the first openly gay candidate.
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Quote from: Rumi
Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, and so I am changing myself.
Quote from: Viktor Frankl
When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
Quote from: Sindain
Its kinda silly to complain that a friendly NPC isn't a well designed boss fight.
Quote from: Eric Blank
How will I cheese now assholes?
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