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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 3534746 times)

Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35460 on: March 12, 2020, 10:19:55 am »

Yes it's worse than Influenza and the cold. Not as bad as Measels or SARS or TB or polio or smallpox or even spanish flu.  (At least according to a plot of mortality vs R0).

The biggest difference I can see with this outbreak: At least 20 times the media coverage of SARS, and 100 times the media coverage of Ebola.

Yeah, but it deserves that.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3

100K+ infections for the current one vs 8000 for SARS and 2500 for MERS. Sure, those other diseases are more deadly, but this one is more infectious, so it makes it up and more. It's already at 4 times the deaths of SARS or MERS, and it's not likely that it has peaked yet. Ebola was bad too, killing 11000 people, but that's just 1/5th of a bad flu season in the USA.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:26:02 am by Reelya »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35461 on: March 12, 2020, 10:24:13 am »

There's no guarantee of anything until it happens - who knows if we even develop an effective vaccine, and when? The fact that SARS, MERS, and Covid are all related and all happened relatively close together in history speaks to a trend in my eyes.

It could even be worse if say, Covid manages to split strains once every couple years instead of yearly. People would be lax about developing or getting vaccines, and this whole dance repeats.
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TamerVirus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35462 on: March 12, 2020, 10:27:47 am »

Don't forget the loonies who all think vaccines are part of big pharma satan evil conspiracy and refuse to get them anyway
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35463 on: March 12, 2020, 10:32:23 am »

What I think is that some people aren't really good at percentages / probabilities. Guy at work today pointed out that "only" 2% of people die from this, so nobody should worry. I looked around and we had more than 50 people in the room. I then asked him if he's smokes, and he looked at me "what do you think?" as if it was obvious. I said "So you're a smoker then?" and he nodded.
https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/reduce-your-risk-serious-lung-disease-caused-corona-virus-quitting-smoking-and-vaping
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Among Chinese patients diagnosed with COVID-19 associated pneumonia, the odds of disease progression (including to death) were 14 times higher among people with a history of smoking compared to those who did not smoke. This was the strongest risk factor among those examined.
So, if you get critically ill from this you're 14 times more likely to die if a smoker than a non-smoker. The good news is that this actually means non-smokers death rate is really pretty low. Someone else is the at risk group.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:37:40 am by Reelya »
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Mephisto

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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35465 on: March 12, 2020, 12:25:51 pm »

In the interview on Sam Harris' podcast, Amesh Adalja suggested that - unlike the flu - coronaviruses don't mutate so rapidly, so once a vaccine is developed, this will go the way of measles rather than the flu. I.e., it's likely a one-off outbreak.

You're posting in Ameripol. Going the way of measles means it will be going around for a long time, in ever-increasing numbers.
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Folly

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35466 on: March 12, 2020, 12:44:59 pm »

It's just for this primary biden somehow activated the older people vote even harder, and even with strong turnout youngins are kinda', y'know, outnumbered.

Aren't the younger generations supposed to outnumber the old? I thought that was how your bizarre organic reproductive functions operated...

Don't forget the loonies who all think vaccines are part of big pharma satan evil conspiracy and refuse to get them anyway

More concerned for all the people who can't afford vaccines thanks to a government which cares more about the doctor's right to get rich than about the patient's right to live.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35467 on: March 12, 2020, 12:52:18 pm »

It's just for this primary biden somehow activated the older people vote even harder, and even with strong turnout youngins are kinda', y'know, outnumbered.

Aren't the younger generations supposed to outnumber the old? I thought that was how your bizarre organic reproductive functions operated...
Remember you can't vote before you're 18. Youngins are largely being defined as under 35 (A 17 year spread) or 44 (26), from what I've seen. This against everything else, which is, y'know. More. Younger voting age citizens are just flat outnumbered, nevermind all the shit they have to deal with older folks either don't have to deal with or have had enough time to figure out how to work around.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35468 on: March 12, 2020, 01:07:22 pm »

You're posting in Ameripol. Going the way of measles means it will be going around for a long time, in ever-increasing numbers.
1. You're posting in Ameripol. 2. What?
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Iduno

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35469 on: March 12, 2020, 01:29:36 pm »

You're posting in Ameripol. Going the way of measles means it will be going around for a long time, in ever-increasing numbers.
1. You're posting in Ameripol. 2. What?

The US has done badly with measles lately, because it's health-related and health is our enemy, so it's making a comeback. You said a vaccine means Corvid-19 will go the way of measles, which I pointed out isn't reassuring for the US.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35470 on: March 12, 2020, 01:42:11 pm »

Is 'a few hundred cases* per year almost entirely confined to anti-vaxxers' not reassuring?

*less in this case, since measles is an order of magnitude more infectious
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Doomblade187

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35471 on: March 12, 2020, 03:13:06 pm »

Is 'a few hundred cases* per year almost entirely confined to anti-vaxxers' not reassuring?

*less in this case, since measles is an order of magnitude more infectious
Given that the number is up from ~0, not really.
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SalmonGod

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35472 on: March 12, 2020, 05:48:04 pm »

I'd like to point out that the $1.5 trillion bailout to financial institutions that's happening right now is essentially the rich charging the poor a fine for being unable to spend money, and we should accept no other framing of that conversation.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35473 on: March 12, 2020, 05:57:01 pm »

You're not wrong. Hopefully we can jam this up someone's applicable orifice the next time some conservative bugger says goddamn anything about how to pay for social services.
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TamerVirus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #35474 on: March 12, 2020, 06:34:16 pm »

That $1.5 trillion ended up doing fuck all as the stock market had its worst day (percentage wise) since the 1987 crash.
Today was worse than the 2008 crisis
Actually today was the worst point drop ever
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 06:36:44 pm by TamerVirus »
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