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[MrRoboto75]

The polls don't matter if Trump won't accept a loss.

[Starver]

Articles point out that Clinton and Trump did periodically narrow the gap to nothing.
[...]
There are no large swings happening this year at all, so for one to hit Biden at the end, that's just gotta come out of the blue completely.

With it being on the edge, then, it would be wise (if you could) to keep nudging to keep it like that. Hone things. Especially if (assuming you subscribe to this idea) the point behind the effort was to make either end-result inconclusive enough for your own purposes, possibly even favouring/expecting a lame-Hillary to pop out at the other end, but the coin fell on the other side...

The same could not happen this time. With Trump apparently happy to keep digging just so he can fling dirt out at anyone staring down at him in his strange little hole, such nudges would go to waste. Neither would they bring him back to balance nor could they look extraordinary enough against what is happening.


I don't credit Trump for any grand plans, here, even if they do exist. I imagine he'd have hardly mentioned TikTok bans if it weren't for the users making him look stupid (and, though he wouldn't credit them for it, possibly saving a lot of lives as a side-effect). (And I'm also convinced that TikTok is not a significant (if at all) intelligence resource for China, or they wouldn't be so passive about it.). I think he just hasn't noticed/admitted that the dealer in his card-game is no longer giving him better hands than he'd get by pure chance and so now he's left with his rather low and chaotic 'skill' at the game. (He obviously hates any successful person who isn't propping up his own success. Deep, deep envy, only tempered when they do him a favour.)

Data points =1? I'm going by 2000, 2004, perhaps 2008, not sure about 2012... So 2016 was just the latest iteration and I think didn't even go to plan (which was more an opportunistic retweak according to circumstance, than a continuation of a monolithic scheme left unchanged since its divine inception) but leaves the possibility that lessons have been learnt and possibilities explored that might be explored again if they seem to fit.

But that's just wild speculation on my part, I know. I doubt any Big Conspiracy would be effable enough for me to crack its ultimate nature so easily. I lean more towards it being a lot of Political Griefing by rando players who do not have so much direct interest in this game arena, but join in just to troll those who do.

[Reelya]

Trump was actually ahead on the polls on July 31st in 2016 however. Here's the comparison between the two years:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

Notice how Clinton was constantly on the knife edge, dipping to break-even with Trump repeatedly? That's what's different this time. There is no edge, one candidate is consistently ahead and not dropping back into competitive territory.

As for previous years note how the two candidates normally trade places during the race:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html

It's actually abnormal to be so solidly in the lead for so long during an election as it is this year. Trump has basically the worst polls of any incumbent president in living history. Even Jimmy Carter was even in the polls a couple months out. Trump's been trailing by a solid margin for basically the whole time.

[Random_Dragon]

The polls don't matter if Trump won't accept a loss.

That's my concern as well, to be honest. It doesn't even matter if he merely has a tantrum over it and doesn't try to act on it, any degree of resistance to the loss may risk destabilizing matters further at this point, and any action actually taken may set a concerning precedent.

[scriver]

Make preparations for protests

[hector13]

Let’s see how brutal the police get on the right-wing protesters.

[wierd]

...

What a time to be alive.

[scriver]

"Some thing something interesting times" - me quoting Loud Whispers quoting some other guy, probably. Maybe Hemingway?

[Reelya]

What's with you people and Hemingway (I'm referring to the false baby shoes story there)?

The interesting times thing is widely held to be Chinese proverb. It isn't, and that's apocryphal, but it definitely isn't Hemingway. Are there actually any short pithy quotes that are actually Hemingway? EDIT: yes there are, but almost all of them seem to be about being a writer or getting drunk.

[Iduno]

It's entirely possible that someone's got a "Biden's Emails!" equivalent set of flingable-poo ready[1] to scissor the polling lines back across each other at a key moment.

He's a bigoted (wildly racist, supported Doma, hates the poor, etc.), a serial rapist (8 women have come forward with credible complaints over the years), anti-environment, and wants to dismantle social programs to fund the banks and military. He's a better-spoken Trump. Neoliberals and Republicans want him to win so they get what they want and can blame the left wing (which doesn't exist in politics) for all of the fallout that happens. Same as with Obama.

Let’s see how brutal the police get on the right-wing protesters.

They usually work with them, and find some "counter-protestors" to lynch/blame any violence on.

[Naturegirl1999]

There’s still a Green Party, right? If we can all agree that both main options are bad, why not vote for someone better? It’s gotten to the point where the “two parties” are basically the same party pretending to be separate

[Frumple]

They have their own problems, and not enough people will vote for them regardless. Voting third party in the US is functionally just giving a free vote to whichever party you like the least. That might change a bit if we can get enough dems in and enough pressure on them to actually push through the election reform they've been proposing, but we ain't there this year.

The two parties are wildly fucking different, though. There's vague interactions on some issues and a lot of horseshit brought about due to how fucked up the american system is, but anyone claiming the two parties are actually functionally identical have their heads up their ass and haven't been paying a single goddamn bit of attention for the last, I'unno, century or so.

[Starver]

Notice how Clinton was constantly on the knife edge, dipping to break-even with Trump repeatedly? That's what's different this time. There is no edge, one candidate is consistently ahead and not dropping back into competitive territory.

This is what I was already talking about, what you now seem to think I ought to know. Maybe I didn't word it readably, though. That happens.

[Starver]

There’s still a Green Party, right? If we can all agree that both main options are bad, why not vote for someone better? It’s gotten to the point where the “two parties” are basically the same party pretending to be separate

If enough people agree, you could get a Third (or, if enough people agree to skip, 4th, 5th, 6th) Party, yes.

The trouble is that not enough people will, and 3P voters from who might naturally ally to one of the 2P parties positions can, by migrating away from their 'somewhat acceptable second choice' lead to the 'not at all acceptible' other main party winning. Without too many assumptions, you can see that this probably happened in 2016.

Aside from the constant die-hards with eternal hope[1], you have to pursuade enough potential Green voters that you have pursuaded enough potential Green voters before potentially enough vote Green. Or whatever other flavour of Thirdness you favour.

[1] And, potentially conversley, those convinced it doesn't matter, that it's a sure thing someone else will win, that their vote doesn't count. So they'll make it not count their way.

[scriver]

There’s still a Green Party, right? If we can all agree that both main options are bad, why not vote for someone better? It’s gotten to the point where the “two parties” are basically the same party pretending to be separate

Don't vote for the anti-vax party