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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 1540858 times)

Devastator

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29055 on: March 24, 2019, 06:52:57 pm »

"Probably not obstruction" is perhaps an understatement.  Barr has a very broad view of executive priviledge as per what constitutes obstruction of justice... almost like that was the reason why he was appointed to said position by said executive.

In any case, that's why it needs to be shown what actually happened and what was found, in a clear factual matter, so the decisions can be made by the public, or at least their elected representatives, not either side's cheerleaders.  The sad part is, I don't expect most people to actually read what comes out.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29056 on: March 24, 2019, 07:04:14 pm »

Just add this to the pile of shit to throw at him next election. I admit I'd liked to have seen something conclusive rather than just "Probably not and depends on what you mean by obstruction."

In the end though, just push on through for another year and a half and with any luck he'll be gone thanks to the anger he's stirring up against himself.

The Democrats are going to need to cook up a good deal of their own luck if the economy still holds strong by election day. Theres been reports that a recession is likely due in 2020 and there have been recession warning bells and worries. Not saying that I want a recession to happen, just that recessions don't neccesarily come with warning and even when there are warnings, they can come suddenly.

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I do wonder if this is going to stir up the desperate crazies. Lot of people out there probably willing to let the system work as long as it seemed like something was happening. But now that that's out the door and he's "Getting away with it." Yeah...

Probably no more than right after the election or when Obama was President. The fact that there haven't been any that rise to 'near miss' is a testament to the skills of the Secret Service.

"Probably not obstruction" is perhaps an understatement.  Barr has a very broad view of executive priviledge as per what constitutes obstruction of justice... almost like that was the reason why he was appointed to said position by said executive.

In any case, that's why it needs to be shown what actually happened and what was found, in a clear factual matter, so the decisions can be made by the public, or at least their elected representatives, not either side's cheerleaders.  The sad part is, I don't expect most people to actually read what comes out.

Well yeah, those who have made up their minds either way and aren't curious as to the details aren't going to read it.

Also, there is a lot of overlap with 'either sides cheerleaders' and 'elected officials'.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 07:06:49 pm by smjjames »
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Devastator

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29057 on: March 24, 2019, 07:10:39 pm »

Dunno.  It's too early to say what will happen in 2020, but Trump was elected with what, a 2ish percent deficit in the popular vote?  And the midterms went around 9% in favor of the Democrats?  If things hold, I don't think they'd need much luck.
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29058 on: March 24, 2019, 07:45:17 pm »

I meant the "probably not" in regards to the russian coordination part of the investigation and the "depends on what you mean by obstruction" to the obstruction part.

Sorry if that wasn't clear.

As for the economy. I'm not sure you'll see much uptick in trump's direction no matter how good the economy goes. A crash or recession could lead to a slight downtick for him, but I'm not really expecting much more movement than we've already seen. "The economy" is such a nebulous thing for most people that it's not really something that's easy to quantify or give credit/lay blame for. And for his supporters, the denial of reality and making up of excuses is already so normal that even if the economy does a full on crash and burn, it's not going to be "his fault" anyway.

I'm not ruling out a second term Trump yet. It's very much possible. But I do believe dems are in a good position right now. A lot can happen in a year and a half, but I just don't see Trump's support moving much north of 45%. With those number's it'd be close. He might even win with some electoral college tomfoolery... but it's still very much within the range that dems have solid ground to start from.
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Pumble

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29059 on: March 25, 2019, 01:15:39 am »

Even if Trump totally dodges obstruction, as soon as he leaves office he will, with a hugely high chance, be immediately arrested for financial crimes. He has signed his name to incriminating documents in which everyone else concerned has been charged. The only reason he isn't in handcuffs is because he is the President.
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The Ensorceler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29060 on: March 25, 2019, 02:32:11 am »

I meant the "probably not" in regards to the russian coordination part of the investigation and the "depends on what you mean by obstruction" to the obstruction part.

Sorry if that wasn't clear.
Interestingly and fairly alarmingly, the Mueller investigation has been focused on coordination with the IRA (Russian state sanctioned hackers), when the collusion various lawyer types were expecting it to be about was a later event in which Trump removed sanctions on Russia, which appears to have specifically avoided being investigated by Mueller (or possibly ommitted by Barr, if he somehow only put the results of one half of the investigation in his summary while ignoring the other [Not convinced he'd do something so easy to fail in a month, though.])

Twitter thread with more in depth review of Barr's summary. There's some more stuff in there, but the above is pretty bad and not mentioned here yet beyond describing the Mueller investigation as narrow.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1109913558333210629
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Devastator

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29061 on: March 25, 2019, 02:43:14 am »

Yes.  The investigation was specifically related to the hacks.. and obstruction of justice related to that specific investigation.  Nothing related to other possible crimes, such as payoffs bundled into construction projects, were investigated.

Mueller did not go very far beyond said mandate, with the only major followup being the branch into using campaign money to silence his mistress before the election, which is still open and seems pretty clear.. they have the text of the contract, statements from the lawyer who negotiated it, signatures on the checks that paid for it, and Trump spent about a week trying to get said contract enforced before someone told him it'd look better for him if he denied ever knowing anything about it.  That investigation got spun off.
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PTTG??

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29062 on: March 25, 2019, 12:17:22 pm »

Dunno.  It's too early to say what will happen in 2020, but Trump was elected with what, a 2ish percent deficit in the popular vote?  And the midterms went around 9% in favor of the Democrats?  If things hold, I don't think they'd need much luck.

Depends. The DNC is horrible at its job and as far as we know could nominate Hillary again.

FiveThirtyEight is once again the only news source I've seen that has any understanding of politics, statistics, or rationality.
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EnigmaticHat

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29063 on: March 25, 2019, 12:24:38 pm »

I'm going to withhold any judgement on the Mueller report; we'll see what the report actually says when it gets inevitably leaked or the dems subpeona Mueller and/or Barr.
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LordBaal

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29064 on: March 25, 2019, 08:27:32 pm »

Just read your lower chamber of representants or however you call it approved unanimously 2 laws concerning or applicable to Venezuela. Couldn't find anything on the internet clear enough beyond some tweets. Somebody could please throw some enlightenment on my general direction?

Both democrats and republicans agreeing on something is regular? Or is indication of the situation being really dire.
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Dunamisdeos

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29065 on: March 25, 2019, 08:32:01 pm »

Usually means they've found someone to horribly exploit to mutual bene-

Hang on, these are all expanding humanitarian aid to Venezuela, and appear to also be in opposition to Maduro, according to this article. It wasn't unanimous, but there was no real opposition from anyone. Let's see....

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Mucarsel-Powell’s bill compels the Trump administration to outline a long-term humanitarian aid strategy in Venezuela and allocate at least $150 million in federal funding for humanitarian aid in 2020 and 2021.

Ahhhh, no, wait, here we go. We're officially fencing with Russia in Venezuela, now. Standard US policy, do all the damaging fighting in someone else's country.
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Wasserman Schultz’s bill would compel the State Department to monitor and provide Congress with steps to limit Russian military influence in Venezuela. On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Russia’s foreign minister that they are destabilizing Latin America after reports over the weekend that Russian air force planes carrying troops and a senior defense official landed in Venezuela.

This, however, could be good news for you Baal.
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Another piece of legislation that would expand Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans has the support of Democrats and Republicans from South Florida, though some of Trump’s advisers are wary of expanding immigration protections after they sought to cut TPS for countries like Haiti, Nicaragua and El Salvador.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2019, 08:34:50 pm by Dunamisdeos »
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SalmonGod

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29066 on: March 25, 2019, 08:54:48 pm »

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warned Russia’s foreign minister that they are destabilizing Latin America

such a cringey phrase....
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29067 on: March 25, 2019, 09:00:44 pm »

@LordBaal: It's the House of Representatives, usually just referred to as 'the House'.


This, however, could be good news for you Baal.
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Another piece of legislation that would expand Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans has the support of Democrats and Republicans from South Florida, though some of Trump’s advisers are wary of expanding immigration protections after they sought to cut TPS for countries like Haiti, Nicaragua and El Salvador.

The bolded part isn't exactly great news though.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29068 on: March 25, 2019, 09:15:45 pm »

In short, the US is attempting to knock over the Venezuelan government by backing Guaidó and/or justify a "humanitarian" invasion.
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #29069 on: March 25, 2019, 10:47:57 pm »

Both democrats and republicans agreeing on something is regular? Or is indication of the situation being really dire.

It’s nearly unheard of nowadays. There’s often splits within the parties but near unanimous approval of both parties is very rare. Israel is the only issue that comes to mind on which both parties mostly agree upon.
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