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How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]

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Hapchazzard:
I'm curious as to what the forum's thoughts/predictions are on how long the 'Big Wait' will be? My personal thoughts are that it will be at least two years, or more than three if Toady decides to also add in a secondary magical system like basic alchemy on the first pass. After that, I predict that It'll take at least one and a half years for proper planar mechanics to also get added (assuming they'll be done on a second pass), or two years if alchemy/magical metallurgy is instead implemented on a second pass along with said planar mechanics. What are your thoughts?

EDIT: Predictions so far:

Sanctume : April 5th, 2021
thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Real_Bang : May 15th, 2021
Starver: June 5th, 2021
Casany: July 23rd, 2021
Voliol : Sept 19th, 2021
Urlance Woolsbane: Sept 15th, 2021
Death Dragon : Oct 1st, 2021
Shonai_Dweller : Jan 15th, 2022
Inarius: April 15th, 2022
Beag : July 7th 2022
PlumpHelmetMan: September 15th, 2022
KittyTac : Oct 24th, 2022
quekwoambojish : Oct 30th, 2022
Witty: December 10th, 2022
Grand Sage : January 1st, 2023
Asin : January 24th, 2023
VislarRn: February 24th, 2023
Criperum : July 15th, 2023 (mid summer)
Malvado: December 31st, 2023

quekwoambojish:
I thought the big wait was going to start almost a year ago with the demonstration announcements and whatnot. Long waits that weren’t called ‘the long wait’ have taken 2 years before.

I’m guessing 4 years +

But what’s nice with this, is Toady now makes mini releases much more frequently, so that’s nice and exciting in the meantime. Hopefully the long wait has a couple of those, otherwise like before, I’ll wait a year for mods to ramp up, and I’ll play those until the main release. (Looking at you Meph!)

My biggest concern is post long wait. I wonder if DF will still be the primary concern. My life has conditioned me to believing DF is a constant in our world, but idk, I get a feeling Toady might pick up something else after the long wait. Anyone else get that feeling at all?

KittyTac:
DF is a project for life for Toady. It's not like he's going to trash his plans after more than 15 years of development. The wait probably won't be 4 years long. Maybe 3.

quekwoambojish:

--- Quote from: KittyTac on October 30, 2018, 10:00:24 am ---DF is a project for life for Toady. It's not like he's going to trash his plans after more than 15 years of development. The wait probably won't be 4 years long. Maybe 3.

--- End quote ---

I didn’t say trash, I said primary concern.

This is the longest projected dev cycle for a release that I remember seeing (and I think I started following the cycles in 2008-9ish). Some of  the rhetoric lately just feels that way is all, I think it was one of the talks last year he mentioned possibility of it (could be a false memory). I couldn’t blame him if he wanted a side distraction after this release.

Telgin:
At least 2 years, almost certainly.  As quekwoambojish said, even when Toady didn't call out previous releases as coming after a Big Wait, that's about how long they took.  Maybe Toady is just being more cognizant of the time required after having gone through so much development, or maybe he's acknowledging that it's going to be a very large undertaking, bigger than the ones before it.

Then again, one reason for previous releases taking so long are all of the rabbit holes he ends up going down.  For example, if I'm not mistaken he originally planned for the "night creature" release to come before October of one year, and it ended up dragging on for almost a full year longer because he ended up needing to add things like the interaction system to handle necromancy.  Maybe this time he has a better idea of what will be required.  Personal experience with programming tells me that there will be a lot of surprises anyway though.


--- Quote from: quekwoambojish on October 30, 2018, 09:46:44 am ---My biggest concern is post long wait. I wonder if DF will still be the primary concern. My life has conditioned me to believing DF is a constant in our world, but idk, I get a feeling Toady might pick up something else after the long wait. Anyone else get that feeling at all?

--- End quote ---

I doubt DF will stop being Toady's primary focus any time soon, but he did mention once a few years back that he had other projects he was working on occasionally now.  What their status is is anyone's guess, and as far as I know he hasn't even said what they are.

Unless that was a fever dream I had... my memory isn't what it used to be.

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