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Author Topic: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]  (Read 12003 times)

Inarius

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2018, 05:01:35 am »

Let's do this :) (perhaps the OP could edit and add list ?)

thefriendlyhacker : May 12th, 2021
Inarius : Sept 15th, 2021
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PlumpHelmetMan

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2018, 05:35:07 am »

thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Inarius: Sept 15th, 2021
PlumpHelmetMan: February 5th, 2022

Better safe than sorry, after all. :P
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It's actually pretty terrifying to think about having all of your fat melt off into grease because you started sweating too much.

Urlance Woolsbane

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2018, 05:35:34 pm »

What the heck, I'll take a gander at this:
At the rate things are going, the Big Wait will probably start between March and April of 2019. During this period, Toady will have to thoroughly rewrite the map system and greatly expand procedural generation (and everything that touches), in addition to tinkering with world-gen, revamping wizards, entwining magic with the world, and who knows what else. By comparison, 40.01 comprised world activation, fortress retirement, multi-tile trees, new site maps, various combat and movement changes, rumors, a conversation overhaul, a mind overhaul, and vaults. It's not an easy comparison, as the former is colorful and grandiose, while the latter was far more practical, concerned largely with the fundamentals of gameplay. In some ways, myth gen springs quite naturally from existing systems, but it's still far more dynamic and modular than Dwarf Fortress has ever been. I could see Tarn taking a year on creation myths alone. And the rest of what he's dealing with is easily twice as complex as the Villain Arc, which by my estimation will take about 9 months. This leaves me with an admittedly broad estimate of 2 1/2 years, or September-October 2021.
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PlumpHelmetMan

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2018, 06:20:00 pm »

Looks like we might end up with an "autumn 2021" consensus, though I guess it's a bit early to say.
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It's actually pretty terrifying to think about having all of your fat melt off into grease because you started sweating too much.

Shonai_Dweller

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2018, 11:47:53 pm »

And throwing in some reckless optimism, I say:
January 21st 2021.

After all, it's ToadyOne who coined the term Big Wait, implying "bigger wait than ever before" and when have his predictions ever been on target?
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Inarius

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2018, 03:02:09 am »

so this leaves us with

thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Inarius: Sept 15th, 2021
PlumpHelmetMan: February 5th, 2022
Urlance Woolsbane : Sept 15th, 2021
Shonai_Dweller : Jan 21st, 2021
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 04:38:45 am by Inarius »
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Shonai_Dweller

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2018, 03:14:36 am »

so this leaves us with

thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Inarius: Sept 15th, 2021
PlumpHelmetMan: February 5th, 2022
Urlance Woolsbane : Sept 15th, 2021
Shonai_Dweller : Jan 21th, 2021
21st... :)
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Inarius

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2018, 04:38:08 am »

Sorry (edited). English is not my mother tongue, after all...Nevertheless, i'm quite surprised to see you more optimistic than other people ! (PlumpHelmetMan, one more year than you, for instance)
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 04:40:17 am by Inarius »
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VislarRn

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2018, 10:43:40 am »

Usually Toady seems to fall terribly into planning fallacy when making predictions.

According to that, I think that the Big Wait will be over in February 24th, 2023.
Pessimistic, but on the positive side, Toady probably gets a bit sidetracked also, resulting some more features and game mechanics, we originally didn't expect to be in M&M update at all.
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PlumpHelmetMan

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2018, 01:06:50 pm »

Yeah, honestly I'm just as interested to keep up with the devlogs and see how mythgen unfolds as I am for the final product, seeing as we only have a fairly general idea of what it will entail in the first place. I'm sure Toady has a ton of ideas in mind that he's never shared with any of us.
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It's actually pretty terrifying to think about having all of your fat melt off into grease because you started sweating too much.

malvado

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2018, 05:15:01 pm »

Personally my best guess is "The Long Wait will end 2023"
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quekwoambojish

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2018, 01:18:39 am »

so this leaves us with

thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Inarius: Sept 15th, 2021
PlumpHelmetMan: February 5th, 2022
Urlance Woolsbane : Sept 15th, 2021
Shonai_Dweller : Jan 21th, 2021
quekwoambojish : Oct 30th, 2022
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Inarius

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2018, 02:58:45 am »

better like this :
(please reuse this list if you want to add your date)

Shonai_Dweller : Jan 21st, 2021
thefriendlyhacker: May 12th, 2021
Urlance Woolsbane : Sept 15th, 2021
Inarius: Sept 15th, 2021
PlumpHelmetMan: February 5th, 2022
quekwoambojish : Oct 30th, 2022
VislarRn: February 24th, 2023
Malvado :December 31st,2023
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Shonai_Dweller

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2018, 10:02:44 pm »

Calling it now.
This current Big Wait for the Big Wait development cycle will conclude in June 2019.

And I'll be wanting to revise my Big Wait prediction if I'm proven right....
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PlumpHelmetMan

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Re: How long will the Big Wait be? [Speculation]
« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2018, 10:07:56 pm »

Me too.

Not gonna revise my 2022 prediction just yet, but at the very least I'm gonna shift it to summer or early autumn of that year.
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It's actually pretty terrifying to think about having all of your fat melt off into grease because you started sweating too much.
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