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Author Topic: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - Game Over - Mafia Win!  (Read 36517 times)

dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #150 on: December 25, 2019, 02:41:16 pm »

I'm in
Expect three posts from me over the next 6-12 hours: regarding initial thoughts and some explanations of my reasoning while out, a post to engage with the current gamestate, and then any actual cases I can make. There are three people who I could be sold as being obvscum without having read any further, so there should be at least one out of that.
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #151 on: December 25, 2019, 04:08:04 pm »

For reference, I unvoted FoU and voted Tric because I was voting with IcyTea31 D1. I said I was going to do this and I never indicated that I thought IcyTea was any less town than when I went out.
For someone who was/is such easy obvscum, I'd like to have gone looking through their past games to be certain that it wasn't possible for it to be their towngame. We were probably going to have to lynch Tric anyway, but there's an opportunity cost to killing FoU D1 in that we might get further evidence as to whether or not they're actually scum. Unfortunately, nobody pressed my case in my absence. Whatever, let's get this bread.

Yes. It changed nothing. I'd like to hear you speculate on why I performed no night action.
Because you don't have an activatable. Superdorf's confirmed list of half the abilities was getting 3 results per use with 9 players, which means there were 6-7 abilities and 2-3 passives like Tric's prime immunity. Superdorf never rolled census, so we had 6 of 6-7 abilities. I'm aware there are other possible answers, but I'm making this note because this:
Superdorf was town, and now I'm partly regretting pointing out the danger his abilities created to the mafia - after all, he is now dead. If I didn't make him seem so useful perhaps he wouldn't have been targeted. I would rather have been killed myself to be honest, in his place.
is some dumb shit. It's so oblique to anything possibly useful and this weird kind of possibly contrite emoting over a player dying that you literally get told not to do in the opening posts of BMs.
Anyway, my action type is brainwash. It's vanishingly unlikely that anyone other than me can redirect you or change your action type. I'll leave the WIFOM about why I was trying to bait out the scumkill to your internal speculation.
IcyTea31 is still a valid vote for the moment, however. I don't like how he considers me to be a town player.
Same, but at least people are going to vote for you now.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Yes, the town needs to do more work than the scum to win. That doesn't mean that a player who's invested enough to make a post after requesting a replacement is town.
Cute.
Most places don't allow it, actually, but what are you gonna do, ban me? I don't give a fuck.
You'll notice that the way I presented this I went out of my way to avoid implying I might get modkilled. Because I broke the rules and was doing so intentionally, and if I got modkilled, it was a way worse outcome than the value I was likely to get out of the post. That was my primary concern. I don't think it's ambiguous.
If I'm so worried about the modkill, why the fuck would I post as scum where there's no benefit to me to do anything but lurk if I have an excuse while I already had a relatively secure town glow?
Your meta arguments are consistently shit and mostly in bad faith, and I don't know if that's you or you're actually the type of person to give intentionally bad advice as scum. Mostly, the way in which they seem to worry you seems to imply that you might be scum. Whatever.

I could have been a lot more active while out, but I wasn't playing or planning to have to replace in, and I've no intention of half-assing games, I don't think that's good for me.

Super brief rundown before I really engage with the thread, these are all gutreads that have room for development that I'll get to later:
Dolores, Icytea31: unambiguously town, I, for one, find it personally hilarious that people are voting ICT when he's literally more than half the content of D2 and the significant majority of actual work on D2
Persus13: town PR. Previously I compared him disfavorably to DA, subsequent to which Persus continued to make reasonable arguments, moved his RVS vote from ICT to create pressure and then to break the tie I created by accident. Inactive due to external circumstances.
Naturegirl1999: there's not much here, but nothing I really have a problem with. Needs to post way more.
Shadowclaw777: unambiguously openly anti-town. Claims that they have literally no way of finding scum, but also votes for close to the only person doing any work to find scum D2. I don't really believe that they're scum (positively) but I've got literally no evidence to the contrary and plenty of evidence that they don't have the town's interests at heart.
Deus Asmoth: This needs more space, especially because it was born as a gut read, but D2 they've done nothing useful but lean weakly on Shadowclaw, which reeks of backup lynch given how weak sc777's play is and how they're both supporting the current push on ICT which means both players will be high and dry
This is a completely ridiculous claim: The fact that you're presenting it as such- and that dolores was more than willing to allow you to do so- is probably the scummiest thing in this game as of yet.
You're right, that is a completely rediculous claim. The scummiest thing in this game is the post where
FallacyofUrist: claims that he has no interest in lynching scum,
Now, if we take the phrase 'right now' to mean 'at the time of answering this question'... then it would be logical to say that I should hammer vote whoever looks the most opposed to town, yes?
...
Not reading your role PM immediately is an anti-town move.
...
Superdorf: To answer your first question I would hammervote IcyTea if I had to, due to the previously mentioned issues with not reading his role PM
then lays out two suspicions he could pursue, and then says that the player he would quickhammer if forced is the one that he thinks is antitown (in the same D1 with TricMagic) and that, furthermore, he regrets that he can not quickhammer him
Superdorf: To answer your first question I would hammervote IcyTea if I had to, due to the previously mentioned issues with not reading his role PM. And while I may not be able to hammer I can of course simply vote him.
This isn't even part of the reason I was voting for FoU D1. I literally just noticed this when I was looking for the material I actually tried to make a case on (and which he never addressed) for the joke.

1/3, that's the short post out of the way
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #152 on: December 25, 2019, 05:27:08 pm »

The scope of this post is everything I missed or didn't get to follow up on after going out. There should be an extra post after the next going into a deep character reading of FoU/DA/naturegirl/persus but I don't think I'll have time to do that before N2

D1:
Naturegrill2000: why are you still fielding questions without any questions of your own? I'm really not down with your passivity and lack of apparent desire to know more about the roles and alignment of other players. If TricMagic had posted literally anything, I'd be voting you now.
NG still needs to get way more active. They haven't done anything but lean weakly on and vote TricMagic and then Shadowclaw, both really weak players. Very little work or content ex nihilo.
It blows my mind that you apparently are willing to give a town read to a player who has admitted to not knowing what side they're playing for.
That's cos I'm town. See, I don't actually know the alignments of other players. So when a player acts like they're town, I'm inclined to believe that they're going to continue to act like they're town. Leaving aside the fact that I literally made that read conditional under the condition for which that was the only possible correct read, I've got no way of knowing whether or not ICT has read his rolePM. I could to this day not have read my rolePM. I'm trying really hard to tease out this point, but basically, it scans as scummy to my eyes the fact that you're unwilling to claim any sort of opinion on highly active players under the presumption (for which you have no evidence) that their role is unknowable. It implies that you don't want to give away that the reads you state won't line up with your actual beliefs i.e. that you're holding out on us with alignment information.
Besides the fact that there's more anecdotal evidence of this than literally any other claim that has ever been made about tells/slips in mafia, it's also obvious from first principles. Town players can optimize their play for maximum volume of work without reducing their ability to be townread 'per unit work', whereas scum can't because they can't write stream-of-consicousness like town can.This will always be true and will always be what matters. Sure, relative to other players activity might not mean much if you're physically or psychologically unable (or unwilling) to devote more than a given amount of time or can't produce as much work per unit time as another player, but activity relative to a given player is always relevant and you, in particular, have given no reason why your established metagame can't be used to evaluate you without at least relatively high efficacy.
I have, actually. Your implication was that my activity is noticeable lower as scum than as town, which is blatantly untrue.
My assertion was that your activity would have to be noticeably lower as scum than as town if you had any sort of functional towngame.
It's your implication that you're not as active as town as you could be. Are you stung because you feel guilty about throwing games as town, or are you trying to deflect away from the fact that you're worried that you're easily identifiable as scum?
If anything, a good scum player should be one with higher activity, since the optimal play for scum is both to appear to be town and to direct the town into pursuing bad lynches, which would both be aided by high activity under your assertions.
Sure, and an optimal town would just silently quickhammer scum every day and take their night actions in perfect miraculous coordination, but that's hardly realisitic, is it?
It is easier to put out work as town, which means that the maximum work you can put out as town is higher than the maximum work you can put out as scum. Appearing as town is explictly not aided by high activity. We lynched TricMagic D1 because we believed that. Players who don't post anything are lynched because they are unable to be read. The reasoning is that, if you post, you are more likely to be read as your alignment than you are based on purely random chance. There's no fucking way you don't know this.
And if you're writing stream of consciousness, you're not optimising your work in the first place, you're just spamming everyone else with more stuff they have to sift through to find what you're actually trying to say.
There is no "actually trying to say". "Actually trying to say" is a purely scum concept. Why are you thinking it? If I can bare my entire mind to you, you know my alignment. The less composed I am, the more likely you are to get a true read of my alignment, free of my interference. My interference will always be to your detriment if I am scum and you are not.
I'll put something together to try to convince other players of something as town. But this is a dishonest act. If I just posted my gut reads naked on the actual basis of why they're there and what they are, I'd be a lot less successful in getting other players lynched. But you'd always know when I'm town. I'm not really in danger of being lynched, so that's why I don't do that. The whole point of pressure is to get players to do that, because their alignment is in doubt.

The reason for voting for FoU, the aggressive Pack wolf play seems averse and he hasn’t made any point why he be useful for town rather then these claims but idk

Vote FallacyOfUrist
Shadowclaw will vote fucking anyone over this shit, which means that it's very likely unironic and so not alignment indicative.

D2:
DA fields questions (a total of three, with one line answers) for two posts and leans weakly on shadowclaw in a way that was covered D1. Doesn't vote anyone or make any sort of case, despite not asking questions of his own. Really got me wondering how he plans on finding scum as opposed to, say, lynching an exceptionally weak town player like we did on D1.

Superdorf was town, and now I'm partly regretting pointing out the danger his abilities created to the mafia - after all, he is now dead. If I didn't make him seem so useful perhaps he wouldn't have been targeted. I would rather have been killed myself to be honest, in his place.
Apparently you could only afford to post two lines, and you posted this. There's nothing possibly more valuable you could do with your time, player who asks no questions opening D2?
IcyTea31 is still a valid vote for the moment, however.
Fucking how. YOU NEVER EXPLAIN THIS SHIT.
You said that you thought he was doing something anti-town D1. Even if that were true: he also stopped doing it D1, and you don't actually know his alignment. You could at least ask some questions to him if you're going to blow off D2 as well D1 for a policy lynch based on something he explictly isn't guilty of anymore. How can you argue that it's hard to get a read on him so he should be lynched when you've done nothing to get a read on him this entire game.
I don't like how he considers me to be a town player.
me 2 buddi
...
This joke is never going to get old
Currently my logic goes to voting IceyTea31
This is technically correct, even if shadowclaw's logic has literally positive impact on attempts to win mafia. I don't think he's ever lied to us, I'll have to check this later. There might actually be a strong case for town!shadowclaw.
If this is some 4000IQ scum play there's not much we can do without material to compare it to anyway. Still an alignment-neutral antitown read from me though, I'm never going to be caught endorsing this.
Holy shit. After complaining that you don't want the lynch to be random, you use a random nightkill? In what world is that a sensible pro-town move?
Lynches block actions (for the following action), you get two night actions before prime/ignite kills you (and one from regular nightkills). If you assume that it's only possible to win games as town through night actions, it's easy to deduce that lynches would be the last alternative.
It's the dumbest shit I've ever fucking heard but I can actually buy that that's how he's thinking.

naturegirl1999 I'm of the mind that shadowclaw777 is more likely to be bad than scum. Who are you suspicious of besides them? You haven't been asking many questions, so you must have a relatively good idea of at least one other player as scum.

2/3, surprisingly little that had to be followed up on (besides FoU which I'm coming to)
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #153 on: December 25, 2019, 07:21:25 pm »

naturegirl1999 I'm of the mind that shadowclaw777 is more likely to be bad than scum. Who are you suspicious of besides them? You haven't been asking many questions, so you must have a relatively good idea of at least one other player as scum.
Others I find suspicious are FallscyofUrist and Deus Asinov
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #154 on: December 25, 2019, 07:28:15 pm »

Others I find suspicious are FallscyofUrist and Deus Asinov
Sure
Mind elaborating as to why?
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #155 on: December 25, 2019, 09:55:57 pm »

FallacyofUrist
First post:
Superdorf: To answer your first question I would hammervote IcyTea if I had to, due to the previously mentioned issues with not reading his role PM. And while I may not be able to hammer I can of course simply vote him.
I went over this before
It's hard to believe that any town player would ever think like this. Whatever, it's not important.
There's a persistent emphasis on WIFOM play (that make no fucking sense) that starts with this first post.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Second post carries this forward
The problem of course being that if you are town and you survive till the next day, you can census again and reveal even more information to town. With every death that occurs the likelihood of your role being confirmed or at least made more likely to be true increases as the death information may match your census information. Why would the mafia care if your death reveals the truth of your information when you're going to be releasing even more information over time? If you are a town player and being truthful you've made yourself an attractive target towards mafia, simply for the sake of cutting off your flow of information.

If you are not killed by Day 2, my suspicion would be either that you are mafia, you correctly planned for a town player to protect you, or the scum are leaving you alive as a risky gambit.
Bolded for emphasis. FoU gets to this later, but it seems like the WIFOM is an intensely shitty setup to try to frame Superdorf. What bothers me on a meta level is that FoU literally drinks the fucking poison and only puts out wine for the rest of us: if there were three passives, Superdorf literally revealed the entirety of the information he could ever obtain with his ability right out the gate of D1. As I mentioned D1, the only person who ever seemed convinced there was ever any merit to any of this wine was FoU and he literally framed it as "either Superdorf is mafia or mafia really want to kill him" while trying to kill him. There was a lull while we waited for some promised activity which was delivered, and other than that the only thing Superdorf ever did wrong (scummily) was panick and defend himself when 2/3 of the town activity was people attacking him, so I can sorta see why you'd want to do this (in a way which actually works).
Spoiler: More of the same (click to show/hide)
I don't think 'coached' is the right term here. It looks more like Superdorf is mimicking town arguments in an attempt to look town.
~~~
In truth, Superdorf looks more mafia-like than IcyTea does.
This is technically true only because ICT was IC-posting as an alignmentless observer at this point
I've quoted a lot of what FoU had said about Superdorf at this time already in this post, and the rest of it elsewhere already. There's nothing but wine. There's no comment on activity, nothing about Superdorf promising content, not even questions. He doesn't ask Superdorf to do work or comment on the (large amount) of work Superdorf was doing. Nothing. There's this dumb WIFOM which boils down to "Scum will kill you for being useful, so maybe you're actually scum. That said, I'd like to kill you now". Nothing about an actual daygame anywhere.
Why am I not voting him at present?

Because if he is town then keeping him alive will be very beneficial. I want to be absolutely certain that he's mafia before any vote.

IcyTea meanwhile hasn't shown much value... nor has he scum-hunted to any significant degree, at present.
But wait, there's more! FoU states very strongly that he thinks that Superdorf is mafia, but votes for someone unrelated who he had only said this to/about:
Spoiler: FoU3->ICT (click to show/hide)
Shoutouts to the line where he implies that anyone intelligent would quickly realize that not reading your PM is extremely ineffective play, when the last time I talked to the vets about it the consensus ranged from "it's neutral" to "it's so strong that I'm going to explicitly ban it from any game I host in the future". Bonus points for telling someone that doesn't know their alignment that what they're doing and what you have literally no control or impetus over whatsoever is hurting one team or the other.
Anyway, he raises the possibility that ICT has made this claim explicitly because he is scum this game but doesn't follow up on it by doing any of the things you normally do to determine a player's alignment, nor did he do so when he voted him first in RVS or the post between these two. For reference, this is <18hrs to the end of D1. This is the case that FoU wanted to end the day on. All this nothing.
This is where FoU's vote was when we lynched TricMagic. The most benign possible interpretation of this case is that FoU wanted to lynch ICT for being antitown. On D1, where we lynched TricMagic for not posting ever, and where ICT did more work than any other player.

D2:
Superdorf was town, and now I'm partly regretting pointing out the danger his abilities created to the mafia - after all, he is now dead. If I didn't make him seem so useful perhaps he wouldn't have been targeted. I would rather have been killed myself to be honest, in his place.

IcyTea31 is still a valid vote for the moment, however. I don't like how he considers me to be a town player.
I fully intend to fabricate a longer case on IcyTea tomorrow. For the moment I'll unvote IcyTea for the sake of avoiding a hammer in the meantime.

I have a few ideas about things I've noticed that I need to string together.
That's it.
I did crop a single line throwaway where he asks Shadowclaw777 what the fuck he is talking about, but I think that's more a human reaction than anything to do with the game of mafia. It's a scum player asking about the mechanics of a/the town arson anyway.

Oh right
Spoiler: m2bdE (click to show/hide)

Anyway, there's nothing there. As I said before, even if we pretend that you had a reason to vote ICT for being antitown D1 (lmao), there's no fucking way you could claim that it still applies unless you're saying he still doesn't know his role.



I fully intend to fabricate a longer case on IcyTea tomorrow.
At least you're honest.
I can't wait to see this


I can, at this point, imagine a world in which DA is town. I don't think it's likely, which is a strong indictment given that I'm calling him out of a pool of 5 players, but there's at least a dialogue here. I'm not holding my breath for anything from FoU.
Plus I can read his old games over N2 to get a better position even without the ongoing dialogue.

3/3
FallacyofUrist
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dolores

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #156 on: December 25, 2019, 10:08:20 pm »

Naturegirl1999&shadowclaw777: I'd quite appreciate it if you could do something to try to determine the alignments of DeusAsmoth and each other. I strongly recommend asking questions. If you're already relatively sure about those alignments, please explain why in as much depth as you can manage. The way I see it, there is very likely a scum between the three of you (or two if it's a 3man scumteam) and anything you can do to help us find them would be appreciated.
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Persus13

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #157 on: December 25, 2019, 10:15:14 pm »

I' should be back with a larger post tomorrow, but for now, I have some questions.

NQT: Was the number of Mafia ever stated? I'm seeing people throw around numbers, and I don't recall actually seeing any concrete numbers.

Shadowclaw: Can you summarize your case on ICT? You guys are WoTing each other and I'm not entirely clear what your case is.

ICT: Same question as Shadowclaw. As far as I can tell, you're attacking claw for not being used to this format and making unwise decisions last night, neither of which are alignment indicative.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #158 on: December 26, 2019, 05:08:08 am »

ICT: Same question as Shadowclaw. As far as I can tell, you're attacking claw for not being used to this format and making unwise decisions last night, neither of which are alignment indicative.
My original vote was for their D1 conduct, but I kept the pressure on after they claimed their action, as that action struck me as something no competent town player would do. Turns out, I wasn't talking to a competent town player, and the suspicion is over "competent" rather than "town".



I have some issues with dolores' case on FoU, but I'd like to see him respond to it before I voice them.
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notquitethere

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #159 on: December 26, 2019, 05:18:29 am »

D2 Votes
Persus13 -
Dolores
FallacyofUrist - Dolores [1]
Deus Asmoth
Naturegirl1999 - Persus13 [1]
Shadowclaw777 - Naturegirl1999 [1]
Icytea31 - Shadowclaw777, Deus Asmoth [2]

Hammer on 4. Day ends 10.40pm 26th December.

The number of mafia players is not public information. The game would auto-end if there is ever no way for town players to win.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2019, 05:39:15 am by notquitethere »
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #160 on: December 26, 2019, 05:30:10 am »

NQT: earlier, the end of the day was marked for the 26th. Which is the correct day?
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notquitethere

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #161 on: December 26, 2019, 05:38:50 am »

NQT: earlier, the end of the day was marked for the 26th. Which is the correct day?
Day ends today in 12 hours time, I had just misremembered when I'd extended the day to.
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Naturegirl1999

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #162 on: December 26, 2019, 10:20:13 am »

I find FallscyofUrist suspicious because of the attempt at lynching Superdorf and the attempt at voting ICT for not scumhunting despite ICT’s scumhunting. He also mentioned fabricating a case. Fabrication implies lots of lies.

I find it odd that Deus Asimov seems to think that activity is not s reliable indicator of town.
It would have literally no effect on my decision.
That's a lie you tell to yourself. All of us are vulnerable to the sunk cost fallacy, and knowing that town has to put in more work to win, town is also less likely to throw all that work away than scum. That work is what I mean when I say someone is invested in the game.
This is a completely ridiculous claim. Yes, the town needs to do more work than the scum to win. That doesn't mean that a player who's invested enough to make a post after requesting a replacement is town.

Quote
Deus Asmoth: activity is the best measure of townyness. You've a history of relative inactivity as scum. How will you convince me you're town in this game?
How is this question and the arguments following from it not provocatively directed at your past performance and arguments?
I mean, what's supposed to be provocative about it? It's a bad faith argument, sure. I already asked dolores about that. I personally wouldn't call it a personal attack, but if you would then I don't see much point in arguing about it.
Asimov appears to have not answered this second question, focusing on whether or not the question is personal rather than answering on how they will convince the asker thst they are town
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #163 on: December 26, 2019, 11:42:23 am »

FallacyofUrist hasn't been active since two days ago. I don't think we'll get a response before day end. Still, better to lynch someone uncertain than someone known to me to be town (i.e. myself).

Naturegirl1999: if you believe FoU is suspicious, why aren't you voting for him this close to the day ending?



I have some issues with dolores' case on FoU, but I'd like to see him respond to it before I voice them.
This was about a double standard I thought I saw when dolores spoke of the TricMagic lynch with FoU in one way and with DA in another. Now that I reread the posts, however, it looks like the two different approaches led to the same thesis. It's interesting, though, how she only used words such as 'unreadable' only when speaking to DA, when FoU's primary D1 case against me was that not reading my PM made me 'impossible to get a true read on'.
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IcyTea31

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Re: Proc Gen Mafia 3 - D2 - Sock-related Massacre
« Reply #164 on: December 26, 2019, 11:44:54 am »

And yes, my primary reasons for voting FoU are self-preservation and the persuasiveness of dolores' arguments. It goes against my gut, but I can't deny that dolores' case makes a lot of sense.
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