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[ChairmanPoo]

I don't know why you're assuming this particular virus wont mutate. Most people I've been following on the field seem to regard it as likely to mutate and avoid immune response  as other coronavirus. Carl T Bergstrom speculated that maybe a couple of years.

[Reelya]

I'm not saying it "won't mutate", I'm saying it's too simplistic to expect it's average mutation to be as effective at skirting our cell's defenses as the average influenza bug, that's been honed by 1000's of cycles through the entire population, to be near the sweet point of it's genetic search-space to be close to as many viable variants as possible.

This particular virus hasn't even been through the entire population once, so my argument is that it's extremely unlikely to be genetically near the potential sweet spot I'm talking about. For example if you bolt any old virus together that just spreads, then it's possible and more likely that if you make a couple of substitutions then you get some defective variant that is just hobbled. Not that influenza can't be randomly hobbled to, it's just that a virus that's been through the population 1000 times having to deal with humans over and over is far less likely to be a few substitutions away from gibberish.

Repeated selection would push any genome towards the mean, since genomes near the mean have the highest number of possible offspring who are viable. But this process would require the virus to have gone through the entire population more than once otherwise it's not actually selecting for ones that deal with an "aware" immune system, at all. Remember, influenza is already evolved to deal with humans who are riddled with influenza anti-bodies, then it was honed by 1000s of cycles back and forth through the same populations. That kind of thing really shapes a virus.

This specific coronavirus is currently only optimizing for dealing with "naive" immune systems which lack any relevant or similar anti-bodies at all, so it's not facing any of the selection pressures that have shaped influenza in a multi-generational sense. So, it's strongly optimizing, but for exploiting a resources which is by definition finite - humans with naive immune systems never exposed to this particular bug before. Once those run out, it's going to be very far from the optimal position.

If you consider influenza again, consider that search spaces for things like a genome, which is a string of data, are extremely large so the search space needs to be culled for future searches to be effective. Whatever the influenza genome is today, is shaped by previous information. There could be really crappy variants in the search space, and with that being so vast, merely not being as close to them in terms of information theory would give you a huge advantage for every future mutation's likelihood of turning decent.

Just bolting some random novel virus bits together may well not work so well at all purposes, it might spread well the first time but not be able to generate sufficiently different variants - in the right ways - to make a successful second run.

[feelotraveller]

People who are interested in the reinfection, immunity and long term prospects of covid angles could do far worse than read this article:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/527
It is filled with admirable scientifc ifs, buts and maybes and also does a good job (imo) of canvasing the large variety of factors that come into play, as well as surveying much of the relevant scientific literature.

In case of tldr; have a quote from its end, as close to a definite conclusion as they are prepared to make:

A duration of immunity similar to that of the other betacoronaviruses (∼40 weeks) could lead to yearly outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2, whereas a longer immunity profile, coupled with a small degree of protective cross-immunity from other betacoronaviruses, could lead to the apparent elimination of the virus followed by resurgence after a few years.

(Of course this is immediately followed by)

Other scenarios are, of course, possible, because there are many processes at play and much that remains unresolved.

[martinuzz]

Looks like the Covid pandemic is over, since this thread dropped down all the way to page 3.


I am starting to doubt if facemasks really help prevent deaths.  I think they add to it.
I mean, just me peronally, I caused 5 deaths since I started wearing facemasks a month ago.  Three elderly, a toddler and baby twins in a stroller.  Accidentally ran them over and killed them with my bike, because I can't see shit when my glasses clog up from wearing a facemask.

[ChairmanPoo]

I assume thatīs satire?

[martinuzz]

Duh. You think I'd be sitting here typing forum posts if it was for real?
I really can't see shit though, have to bike real careful with less than 2m sight range.

I do think facemasks do more harm than good though.  Ever since our government strongly advised again to wear them in public places, I have noticed that even though about 2/3ds of the supermarket shoppers wear them (100% now, since yesterday facemasks became mandatory), it seems as if nearly everybody has stopped using the hand-washer at the entrance.  Before the facemasks, nearly everyone used it.

Seems like the facemasks make people think they can now be less careful with other measures.  And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.

[MrRoboto75]

I keep a stock of hand sanitizer in my car, so I'll use that instead of the store-provided one.

[ChairmanPoo]

And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.

.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?

🙄

[Loud Whispers]

Duh. You think I'd be sitting here typing forum posts if it was for real?

I'd just assume you'd have run over all the police trying in vain to stop the hordes of masked cyclebandits terrorising the streets

[martinuzz]

And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.

.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?

🙄

Yes, because it's not a mainly airborne transmission virus.  If that were the case, like with measles for example, hospitals would know because it would have spread through all wards.
Contact is still shown to be a more important transmission vector than air transmission.  At least that's still the general concensus amongst goverenment advisors and national health department over here.
So yeah, washing hands is much more important than facemasks

[Sirus]

The problem isn't facemasks. The problem is that people are idiots. Other than total isolation and quarantine, the best way to avoid infection is to take multiple precautions. This includes masks, hand washing and/or sanitizing, and of course the ever-popular social distancing.

Like you said though, people are idiots and will do the bare minimum in the hopes that it will be all that is required.

[martinuzz]

Exactly.  I am not denying that facemasks do provide some amount of protection, I am just noticing that apparently wearing one is a strong incentive for many to stop using other precautions.
And then I cannot but wonder if the facemasks aren't doing more harm than good.


Note that when going into lockdown with the first wave, no one over here wore face masks at all, and the wave was under control pretty quickly after that.
However now, in the second wave, everyone is wearing face masks, but this second wave is going down agonizingly slow.

[Frumple]

Pretty sure folks have checked and found, nah, even with the occasional reduction in complementary prevention masks are a net positive.

They're just pretty damn good shit for stopping an aerosol from getting to things you don't want it getting.

[Starver]

Local laws may vary, but I don't have to (nor do I feel I need to) wear a mask when I'm fully outdoors and exerting myself (cycling would count, just walking quickly also does). I'll dodge onto a path's verge to maintain distance from oncoming pedestrians[1] and I'll not immediately rip the mask from my mouth upon exiting a shop, nor wait until the final moment of entry before donning it[2]. But then I tend to avoid crowds anyway. I didn't partake in today's (apparent) unlockdown shopping-spree.


For wave-responsiveness, I suspect first-wave/first-lockdown was taken seriously (with far less baseline endemicism), so masklessness was more marginal, but familiarity breeding contempt the second-wave/second-lockdown (powered by a less trivial background chance of public transmission without being in a clinical situation or just in an unlucky hotspot) made masks far more useful. Upon those newly primed to cross-contaminate others. It's complicated.



Surprised nobody mentioned the UK's MHRA (~FDAish) having authorised public rollout of the Pfizer product for (theoretically, but see below) general use in the 16+ population. The equivalent pan-European body is still less sure about the safety adpects. And it seems we even surprised the Russians, who announced very soon after that Sputnik V (already lauded as 'safe' in a very early announcement) was going to be fully shipped.

Though I'm several levels down in the priority-list (a mix of age-groupings, front-linedness, situational risk and base-health risk) so I imagine I'm not even going to be potentially jabbed this side of Easter. By which time I might be more likely to get the Moderna version, the AstraZeneca one, or even one of the others that by then may have passed Phase III+...


[1] Like with a literal/onomatopeic gaggle of girls, the other day who may or may not have been interested in not taking up the whole path, but there was a wide bit of grass betwixt that and the road that there was no problem me shifting over onto as we crossed trajectories as the least total sum effort of accomodation.

[2] I've adopted a handy off-ears, on-wrist carrying position that takes little effort, if I'm liable to require it again and not entirely stuffing it away for the duratuon, and is reversible with a smooth two-step move (not counting the bridge-of-nose adjustment under my glasses to mitigate steaming up) as required.

[MrRoboto75]

who knew not being an asshole was so fucking difficult for people.