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Author Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over!  (Read 66129 times)

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #855 on: March 03, 2021, 09:36:48 am »

Let's see if you can put your increased posting to some use. Everyone loves Jim, so tell me what makes him town specifically. And it's surely not his pivot to walls of text in this game, is it?
I'm writing up a larger post with my thoughts atm, but I'll take a second to answer this question: my read on Jim yesterday was that compared to wolf!Jim, he was actually putting in effort to solving the game. Wolf jim spent a lot of his time bitching and making excuses to not read the thread and avoid making content, this Jim is still low-posting but his posts are ontopic and actively working to puzzle out the game.

I've noticed less of him today, not sure if that's Jim hasn't posted as much or his posts haven't stood out to me as much, but I think he was probably a townie yesterday. Could have been an overnight conversion target though, though I'm putting him below Toony in that regard.

notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #856 on: March 03, 2021, 09:42:43 am »

I think my conversion guesses are in order:

- Web
- Jim
- Toony
- Vector
- Toaster (for the jokes)

Jim isn't even trying to push a case right now. He was on Persus earlier but there was no traction there and he just unvoted and left it at that. Not exactly screaming "towncore" to me. What makes Jim different than Toaster?
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #857 on: March 03, 2021, 09:51:22 am »

Also gotta laugh at the double bind I find myself in. If I take an analytical approach to scumhunting, players find it scummy; if I don't take an analytical approach I'm accused of not being like town!NQT. But other players complaints notwithstanding, I feel like I'm getting closer here.

One thought about post count and meta: I must make clear that I don't think Jim etc. are scummy for low post count by itself (in every championship game I played, players thought I was suspicious for posting less frequent dense posts over snappy short posts, but I was always town). It's more that other players like Vector and Toony are town-sided specifically for having high engagement, and lower engagement puts a player more firmly in the pool of maybes.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #858 on: March 03, 2021, 09:54:11 am »

One thought about post count and meta: I must make clear that I don't think Jim etc. are scummy for low post count by itself (in every championship game I played, players thought I was suspicious for posting less frequent dense posts over snappy short posts, but I was always town).
That's MU meta for you. Why do you think I highpost now? I got tired of being called a wolf because I didn't take a giant dump in the thread every five minutes.

I'll reread Jim's posts today and see what I think, but it might be a while till I get a chance to do that because I'm at work and need to do a bunch of stuff after I finish my bit post-o-things.

4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #859 on: March 03, 2021, 10:09:58 am »

Alright something I've been wanting to do for a bit but haven't been able to work up the energy to do.


With that as a baseline (my thoughts were probably a little different by day end but the 48 hour night kinda blanked my mind on a lot of my more specific thoughts), let's go into my opinions today.

LuckyOwl: My opinion on Lucky's alignment is essentially: it doesn't matter, in the most likely worst case scenario he's the best choice to prevent an instant town loss. I've already showed my math for lucky being converted by a charismatic cult and why, in that scenario, or if you're even worried about that scenario, Lucky is the best choice to prevent a potential town loss. I also think that, just for the possibility of a double convert, converting Lucky is a good night action choice for a charismatic cult specifically, because it puts them one day away from victory. I don't think a Dark Magus converts lucky there, the double-convert is much less valuable because Lucky was under a reasonable amount of suspicion at EoD 1, so if we're facing a Dark Magus team I think lucky is locktown. Unfortunately, we don't have time try and see which kind of team we're facing because this could well be MYLO, so Lucky it is.

Sidenote on Lucky: if we're not facing a cult and the kill was blocked last night I think Lucky is slightly >rand town just based on "he feels like town Lucky, for better or worse."

Toony could definitely have been the convert last night, as noted previously he feels noticeably different to me today than he did yesterday. It feels like he's just rolling over whenever I challenge him on something and I'm not mindmelding with his posts like I did yesterday. He's also a decent convert regardless of the team, he's a strong player with a high degree of thread presence who was widely townread yesterday. If there's no converter he's probably just town, though.

Fun fact, I actually thought Toony was devil when Lucky posted about it because he was pretty hard on "Lucky wolf" yesterday and the devil supposedly told Lucky that taking the deal would make him look town. I was probably also biased by Toony's BYOR 15 role being a devil but eh.

NQT has, all things considered, felt much better today than he did yesterday. Probably it's just the D2 NQT spike where he actually has a few things to work with, since he's a very analytical player.

Toaster... hmm. I don't like Toaster's insistence that a vampire cult is even in the cards, it feels like baseless fearmongering and spreading doubt in the thread. That said, I'm not familiar enough with Toaster to know whether the line of thought that leads him to "vampire cult could be a thing" is a legitimate town line of thought for him. Anyone have a better read on Toaster here?

Persus has felt better to me ever since I poked him to pick up his game. It feels like he's putting thought into solving the game, even if I don't agree with a lot of his solves.

Icy has fallen off hard. Voting Lucky "for the sake of having my vote do something" is pretty -squints-, and whatever I noticed yesterday that made me townread him isn't present today. I think I'll sheep the people saying "Icy is the devil" since I don't have a better guess of who it is and it makes sense at at least a basic level.

Tric is still pingponging all over the place in my reads list for basically the same reasons he was yesterday: his posts are hella wolfy but a lot of his stuff loops back around into TWTBAW or show an ignorance of game mechanics he probably wouldn't have if he had a team to explain things to him.

I'll get to thoughts on the remaining players at some point later, these were the thoughts that floated to the top of my mind while I was writing this and I've got a huge pile of stuff to do.

Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #860 on: March 03, 2021, 11:31:35 am »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
Jim Groovester: 1: Persus13
Caz: 2: BluarianKnight, notquitethere
Luckyowl: 4: 4maskwolf, Luckyowl, ToonyMan, TricMagic
notquitethere: 2: Vector, webadict
ToonyMan: 1: Caz
Vector: 1: IcyTea31



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Today. ~8.5 hours.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 12:00:41 pm by Mephansteras »
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #861 on: March 03, 2021, 11:33:25 am »

Meph, I believe Jim unvoted me here?
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #862 on: March 03, 2021, 11:59:57 am »

Vector:
Come back when you have more, and I challenge you again: I've been on a scumteam with Lucky since D1? I chose not to NK, or tried to NK someone who was protected, or got RBed and no one claimed, hey, no NK, and funny enough, I blocked Veckle? Oh, and possibly the best of them all: Lucky is playing as though they're being coached by Vector and has been the entire time. These are the implications of your statement. Do they make sense to you?
I'm trying to parse what you're saying here, and the WIFOM is getting in the way a bit for me here. Are you saying Toony is accusing you of being incompetent scum?

Jim:
Actually, after rereading Jim Groovestar's posts this game, I'm going to vote him for now. Jim, what was your case on Blu again?

Didn't you just reread my posts? Why are you asking this? I thought I was clear.

I voted him for being inauthentic, oddly people pleasing, falling on his sword about his bad play. On two occasions he was pressed by Toaster and myself and was asked to clarify his cases, and he answered twice with something completely unrelated to what he was asked on. Generally being more concerned about how he appeared over finding scum.

I don't think I was wrong about him but he obviously wasn't scum.
I needed something to engage with and I wanted to see if you'd change anything now that his roleflip was visible. It doesn't normally work, but its always worth a shot just in case it does. Why have you not voted Lucky despite finding him suspicious?

Caz:
Ok if everyone is just going to lynch me because juicebox was lurking then you might as well replace me out. Waste of time.
I get what your feeling, I replaced in to being the vote leader when Secretdorf replaced out. Maybe take a break from the game for a few hours. That worked for me just now.

Webadict:
I love what you're trying to do webadict, but its very demoralizing to be told to investigate harder because I certainly feel like I've been doing that. I've read the thread like three times today, I've tried to focus down individual players, I've tried looking at vote interactions, and at the end of the day I've got no clue or fresh insights on who the scum are. And for the second day in a row, we're lynching freaking LuckyOwl. I can tell you who I know the cult leader isn't. I'm certain its not NQT or 4mask, and maybe not Tric, and everyone knows its not Blu, but that's 4 players out of 12.

Sorry for the rant. D2 has been a demoralizing, unfun, slog for me, and whoever the scumteam is, they're denying me the msot fun parts of the game.
Honestly get where you're coming from. Sometimes more investigation isn't necessary. I'm mostly posting my thoughts in case I'm NKed.

If you believe the Cult Leader is the top priority, it's going to be hard to push the wagon from Lucky.

Who is the most likely to be Cult Leader to you?
To be fair, I'm mostly okay with a LuckyOwl lynch today, its just it feels like we've regressed back to D1 again, and a Lucky elim doesn't solve my null reads problem.

If I had to gut shoot the Cult Leader I'd go for Jim. but that'll change if Lucky flips town.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #863 on: March 03, 2021, 12:00:55 pm »

Fixed the vote count
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #864 on: March 03, 2021, 12:06:52 pm »

Icy, the only universe in which we lynch Vector today over any other player is if we get a full claim as a vampire lord right now. I know you say it's your gut, but thankfully we don't all share a colon with you. It's great to develop and push suspicions throughout the day, but as we edge closer (8.5 hours!) we should be picking our forever lynches now. Who are you seriously going to push for today?
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Toaster

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #865 on: March 03, 2021, 12:11:43 pm »

Vector

This is just for Meph more than anything; I've been voting Vector most of the day and only now realized it got missed.  See below:

I'd like to see someone above the gap hang, and I'd start with Vector.  Vector, do you think there was a conversion last night?  If so, who did it?  Who'd they pick?

That said, my feeling hasn't changed.  I'd like to do a bit more reading to make sure I'm not just chasing shadows, but that'll have to come later.


NQT:  See above.



My galaxy brain take is that Vector converted Toony last night.  I still don't agree with a Lucky lynch on "there's no way he's the converter" grounds, but it's the best of the four terrible lynch options.  (Me, Lucky, BK, 4mask)  I won't cry if he hangs.



The "Icy is the devil" argument feels plausible, but as of right now I really don't care who the devil is.



I'm highly prioritizing a conversion cult because 1) they're very dangerous 2) I really, really, really hate them.  I'd never join a Cult Mafia game.  This is total self-meta and I doubt I can pull out a reference for you, so take it or leave it.  Again, I'll admit I was wrong if evidence to the contrary comes out.

Well, this is nearly ten years ago, but...
Also, I'm tired of cults.  Sorry town!

Also Super 6:

The situation looks good for a vampire cult, unless a kill was prevented or blocked or something.  That'd be a relief, really, because I hate dealing with cults.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #866 on: March 03, 2021, 12:18:52 pm »

Ah got it Toast. So with two on it, it makes the Vector wagon slightly more viable. It's a bad wagon. Vector was definitely town on D1 and if they weren't I'll eat my hat. Scum players want to coast under the radar (like Toaster, Toony tier), they don't make enemies of literally half the other players in the game.
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #867 on: March 03, 2021, 12:23:49 pm »

I'm very much against a Vector elimination. I do not believe that Vector is the Cult Leader. If you want to argue for Vector being the Convert, then that's one thing, but they aren't the Cult Leader.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #868 on: March 03, 2021, 12:28:20 pm »

Web is right. Here's a radical idea: let's launch the scummiest players first, and then put on our tin foil at lylo if that hasn't worked.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #869 on: March 03, 2021, 12:41:01 pm »

I've got a couple minutes so a few quick 4mask thoughts.

Toaster: I don't think you'll find a person here who disagrees with you. Full cults in small games can go die in a fire, they turn the entire game into "find one specific player within the first two days or you're probably just fucked". That's actually why I don't think Meph would use one, because he knows full well people's opinions on cults and how gamebreaking they can be if they get even slightly out of hand.

I agree with NQT and web that vector is a bad choice today.

If I had three shots right now I'd shoot Lucky, Toony, and Caz, in that order.

My current reads list looks something like this:

NQT/webadict

Vector/Jim (pending reread)/Toaster

Persus

Tric/Toony

Icy/Caz

Outside readslist:
Blue/Lucky
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