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Author Topic: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Rebel Victory!  (Read 28850 times)

EuchreJack

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2021, 11:22:39 am »

Just want to get this out now: If anyone starts demanding that I give them info on day 1, you might just get an FU response.  I'm not (necessarily) scum, just obstinate.  :P

Also, the spies have no reason to hide their intentions when they send out the Assassin: They've already lost all their missions, so there is no reason they can't all say "Kill Commander X!"  Especially since they know who are spies.  I'm sure everyone figured that out, but its a new rule.

I actually hope the rebellion wins, even if I might draw the short straw and be not on that side.  Two losses in a row makes me sad.  :'(

I'll share some analysis:
Optimal sabotage for Spies on most games is Missions 2 and 3, as a single sabotage gives the same probabilities for any member of that team being as Spy as anyone who didn't go on the mission (at least when I crunched the numbers for 6 and 9 player games).  Mission 1 greatly increases the odds that one of the members is a spy if a sabotage occurs (from 33% anyone is a spy to 50% that one team member is a spy in a 6 player game).  Mission 4 requires 2 sabotages with larger groups, and thus it is concern about whether there will even be enough spies to sabotage successfully.
If there are problems with the math, please correct me.

notquitethere

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2021, 12:33:13 pm »

Also, the spies have no reason to hide their intentions when they send out the Assassin: They've already lost all their missions, so there is no reason they can't all say "Kill Commander X!"  Especially since they know who are spies.  I'm sure everyone figured that out, but its a new rule.
This is absolutely correct. At the end of the game, the spies reveal themselves and can openly confer.

I'll share some analysis:
Optimal sabotage for Spies on most games is Missions 2 and 3, as a single sabotage gives the same probabilities for any member of that team being as Spy as anyone who didn't go on the mission (at least when I crunched the numbers for 6 and 9 player games).  Mission 1 greatly increases the odds that one of the members is a spy if a sabotage occurs (from 33% anyone is a spy to 50% that one team member is a spy in a 6 player game).  Mission 4 requires 2 sabotages with larger groups, and thus it is concern about whether there will even be enough spies to sabotage successfully.
If there are problems with the math, please correct me.
Having played lots of iterations of this game irl, you're right that it's very common for spies to lie low in the first mission. If spies manage to fail mission 4 with two people on it, it puts town in a very difficult position if the game goes on to D5.
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webadict

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2021, 01:01:51 pm »

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2021, 01:20:31 pm »

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?
41.47%
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webadict

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2021, 01:52:59 pm »

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?
41.47%
Not sure how insulted to be by this answer.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2021, 02:03:49 pm »

What are the odds that I find the Commander on Day 1?
41.47%
Not sure how insulted to be by this answer.
I would be insulted.

Pinky promise swear to claim Commander on Day 1 if either of us get it?
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webadict

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2021, 02:24:16 pm »

Sure. I'm also gonna claim it if I don't have it, so, ya know.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2021, 02:35:44 pm »

Sure. I'm also gonna claim it if I don't have it, so, ya know.
Shhhhhh *wink wink*

On that note, anybody caught winking in game I'm not allowing on my team.
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webadict

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2021, 02:46:13 pm »

That's not fair. I only look like I'm winking because I only have one good eye.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2021, 02:27:51 am »

 ;D

...I don't want to be on your team anyways.  :P

Besides, it's not like they'll be the ones going on the first mission.  :-X

Knightwing64

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2021, 06:10:19 am »

I trust you guys. 😄

Please donít kill me. 😭😂😁
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EuchreJack

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2021, 06:25:43 am »

I trust you guys. 😄

Please donít kill me. 😭😂😁

Obvious Scum tactic, as Spy players can't die and all Rebels except Commander would gladly die in place of their beloved Commander.
Knightwing64 is a Spy!
...yes, I'm aware the game hasn't started yet.  :P

Knightwing64

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2021, 06:56:19 am »

I declare that you are a spy for declaring me a spy! Foul traitor!
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Vector

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2021, 05:27:18 pm »

With the warning that I am very bad at this game.
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TricMagic

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Re: Revolution III - Assassination Games - Signups 7/5-10
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2021, 05:36:12 pm »

I'm obviously the spy masquerading as an Inincorrigible Incalculable Inconvenience.
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